More three-pointers, less isolations. If you had to sum up in just a few words what the basketball analytics community has learned over the past two decades, it would probably be something like that. And while it’s completely right, it doesn’t mean there can’t be exceptions.
James Harden can’t be stopped 1-on-1. That’s why he should be MVP.
James Harden really might win MVP this time, guys
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The Houston Rockets under Mike D’Antoni are actively reshaping how we view three-point shooting, but they’re also laughing at the “less isolation” idea. James Harden is laughing at it, anyway. The isolation play has developed an increasingly bad rap because it tends to be a low efficiency play filled with long two-pointers and bad contested jumpers. Not for Harden.
Harden scored 51 points for the second straight game on Friday, the first time someone has had consecutive 50-point games since Kobe Bryant rattled off four straight in 2007. While doing so, he has increased his stranglehold as the NBA’s isolation scoring leader: he has 333 points in such situations, while LeBron James sits in second place with 232 points. Harden’s averaged 1.28 points per each isolation possession. You can see why in clips like this.
Harden might actually win his MVP this season.
Houston lost both those games, but it’s a small blip in the midst of a sensational season. It certainly wasn’t Harden’s fault — the Rockets gave up 128 points to the Clippers two days after allowing 122 to the Lakers. Those things happen to any team missing their three top defenders, as the Rockets are in Clint Capela, Chris Paul, and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.
The only possible argument that could be made against Harden as MVP is that his main competitor, LeBron James, can raise his team defensively in a way that Harden can’t. (See the above paragraph.) But James doesn’t do that frequently enough in the regular season anymore to really push him past Harden. Offensively, Harden has the clear lead.
As ESPN’s Zach Lowe pointed out on Friday, the isolation scoring is a huge part of Houston’s success and on pace to snap league records, at least since we started tracking such stats.
Add it all up, and the Rockets have scored 1.15 points possession on isolation plays, per Synergy Sports -- best in the league by a mile, and on pace to be the highest such figure in 14 seasons of Synergy archives by a laughable margin.
Sure, it’s the perfect environment for an elite isolation scorer to thrive: a wide-open offensive floor with shooters that demand defenses respect them, even from unexpectedly long distances. The rest is Harden, an impossibly strong and quick 6’5 guard who will dance past any defender or just hit a three in their face.
Harden is one of the most complete offensive player that the league has ever seen, and he continues to show just that. He’ll next play the Thunder on Christmas Day, and why not go for a third 51 pointer? He’s making it look easy.
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