Markelle Fultz will probably still be the NBA draft’s No. 1 pick despite missing March Madness

Could Lonzo Ball vault past Markelle Fultz to the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft based off his NCAA tournament exploits? There is a groundswell of people who believe it may happen, thanks to Ball’s UCLA squad being poised for a deep tournament run while Fultz’s Washington team wasn’t even close to qualifying. If history is correct, though, don’t count on it.

Ball could have as much as a month extra to audition his case to be the league’s top pick on a roster aptly suited for him. UCLA is a No. 3 seed in the South region, and Ball has wowed scouts and fans alike all season, flashing his deep three-point shot and remarkable knack for making clever, flashy passes.

However, while players like Buddy Hield clearly benefited from deep tournament runs, the extra exposure rarely translates to the very top prospects. After all, last year’s top pick, Ben Simmons, also didn’t make the tournament.

Fultz has been projected as the top selection since last October by DraftExpress, and his position there hasn’t wavered. He’s an incredibly smooth 6’5 point guard with a developed jump shot and above-average athleticism, and his absence from the tournament shouldn’t cause him to drop.

Thanks to DraftExpress’ mock history tool, we can look back at the past decade of first round selections and see exactly when they rose to becoming the projected No. 1.

On March 25, Oden was projected as the No. 2 overall pick by DraftExpress. It wasn’t until April 3 that they moved him into the projected first overall slot. (By May, Oden was clearly seen as the consensus top selection.) This is the best example of March Madness vaulting one player to the highest pick, as Oden’s Ohio State squad marched all the way to the national championship game before falling to Florida. Meanwhile, the player whom Oden did infamously pass — Kevin Durant — had a disappointing tournament with Texas and was upset in the second round.

Rose had been projected as a top-three pick since the previous summer, before his only year at Memphis. You may remember he, like Oden, also went to the national championship game, only to lose in overtime after Kansas’ Mario Chalmers sent it to overtime.

Rose’s team’s run may have helped, but he was still projected as the No. 2 overall pick on May 21, more than a month after the championship. A combination of good workouts, Chicago winning the lottery on May 20, and Rose being a local kid eventually pushed him into being projected first overall by DraftExpress on May 31 — with all three appearing to be larger factors than his tournament run.

Blake Griffin’s Oklahoma unit made it to the Elite Eight in 2009 before losing to North Carolina. However, Griffin had been projected as the top pick since December.

With Kentucky, Wall also went to the Elite Eight. However, he had been the de facto top selection for more than year since the previous April.

Irving had barely made the projected top 10 the previous summer, but he jumped up to being the projected No. 3 overall before that Duke season started. He played the season’s first eight games, averaging 17.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 53 percent shooting, before getting injured. Still, the brief sample size was enough to push Irving up to being projected No. 1 overall.

Irving returned for the tournament and scored 28 points in a losing effort during the Sweet 16, which solidified his case as the top selection in what was seen as a weaker draft. Derrick Williams, the No. 2 pick, did have a breakout tournament for Arizona, but it wasn’t enough to vault him to the No. 1 pick.

Like Wall, Davis spent one season at Kentucky, and was the projected top draftee since the previous April.

In the past decade, Bennett is the only player who wasn’t projected to go No. 1 but went there anyway. At this point, he’ll unfortunately go down as the worst top pick of all time.

Bennett was never projected higher than No. 4 by DraftExpress, and they had him at No. 8 in their final, morning-of mock draft. Rather, the assumed top pick was Nerlens Noel.

Noel tore his ACL in February, and Bennett’s UNLV was upset in the first round as a fifth seed. Bennett himself scored 15 points on 4-of-11 shooting, so neither the projected top pick nor the actual one benefited from any March Madness heroics.

Wiggins was billed as a LeBron James-esque player all the way back in high school. Naturally, he carried the weight of being the projected top overall selection with him the whole time.

Briefly, Joel Embiid knocked Wiggins out of the top spot, only for Embiid’s pre-draft injury to allow Wiggins to reclaim the top spot. While Wiggins’ season ended on a terrible note, scoring just four points on 1-of-6 shooting with four turnovers, it didn’t hurt his draft stock.

If there’s one more example similar to Oden passing Durant, it’s this one. Jahlil Okafor had been projected as the top overall pick since the previous summer, and it wasn’t until April that Karl-Anthony Towns passed him.

But it still wasn’t quite the same situation — Okafor, with Duke, actually won the national championship while averaging 15 points in his six games. Towns’ Kentucky roster lost in the Final Four, and his tournament performances included one-point and eight-point performances.

I’d argue Towns finally (and rightfully) passed Okafor due to his skill set, not by outplaying him for a tournament. It is a sign that No. 1 picks can change at the last minute, though it’s not directly comparable to the Fultz vs. Ball debate.

Simmons wasn’t actually the consensus No. 1 the whole way — you can read DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony explain in March 2016 why they briefly put Brandon Ingram ahead of him.

But before long, Simmons had regained his place at the top, a position he kept despite LSU missing the tournament.