Kyle Lowry is facing an uphill battle against the Bucks, but he has to be better

Kyle Lowry returned from a wrist injury not even two weeks ago. In another setting, you’d love to give him the benefit of the doubt as he eases his way back into a rhythm. But after Toronto lost in Game 1, with Lowry scoring only four points on 2-of-11 shooting, the Raptors can’t give him that benefit of the doubt.

While Toronto boasted home-court advantage coming into the series, it immediately surrendered that to the Milwaukee Bucks in a 97-83 defeat to open up the postseason. It wasn’t only Lowry — DeMar DeRozan shot 7 of 21 and the bench only managed 19 points. But Lowry was the most disappointing Raptor on Saturday, and despite DeRozan’s stellar season, it’s still Lowry who is the driving engine for Toronto.

That’s why Game 1’s showing won’t cut it for Toronto to have any chance. Unfortunately, Lowry is facing an uphill battle. He just flat out missed some shots on Saturday, but he also struggled against Milwaukee’s defense. Here’s why.

This five-second clip succinctly sums up why Lowry only managed 11 shot attempts in Game 1.

That’s Thon Maker, the Bucks’ rookie starting center, with flawless defense on a Lowry pick and roll. You can count on one hand the number of centers who can approximate what Maker does here.

Milwaukee wasn’t a good defense in the regular season, finishing 19th in the league in defensive rating. Even during its post-break surge, the team only improved its rating by about a point, putting it 12th in the league. They allow a few too many three-pointers and start a couple rookies who are bound to screw up occasionally. But as you saw from Maker, this starting lineup can also swallow you whole.

Lowry is a solid 6’0 tall, and especially now at 31 years old, he’s an average NBA athlete. He thrives at making plays even when presented with small windows and spaces. But when Maker and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the big men, and 6’5 Malcolm Brogdon is the starting point guard defending Lowry, those spaces close much quicker, or don’t exist at all.

Lowry’s night probably could have been 5-of-11 shooting from the floor, rattling out a few good looks at jumpers. But the 11 shot attempts is the more telling statistic because Lowry simply couldn’t get to his spots without being harassed by the always-extending arms from Milwaukee. Lowry himself will agree.

Forcing shots probably isn’t the right answer, either. But they certainly aren’t going to come easy.

If this was a one-off phenomenon, Toronto could probably still feel good about Lowry throughout the rest of the series. However, Lowry has the worst playoff field goal percentage of any active player in the league right now. (Raptors fans may be grimacing because DeRozan isn’t far behind, too.)

Maybe it’s in his head now. This is an extended sample size of Lowry playing poorly in multiple series against a wide range of defenders. It happened agains the Lakers and the Trail Blazers in 2009, when Lowry was in a Rockets uniform. He was only a backup then, and Lowry bounced around the league before ending up in Toronto.

With Lowry emerging as a lead option, the Raptors surprised everyone and made the playoffs in 2014. But in the playoffs, Toronto fell to Brooklyn in a Game 7, where Lowry’s potentially game-winning shot was blocked by Paul Pierce.

The next year, the Raptors were swept by Washington as Lowry battled back and shin injuries. Last season, Toronto advanced to the conference finals, but it felt like — at times — it was doing it in spite of Lowry’s (and DeRozan’s) struggles. Lowry shot about 35 percent in the first two series that Toronto won before rebounding for a solid, but ultimately ineffective performance against Cleveland, which dominated in its four wins.

It’s notable that last season nearly half of Lowry’s jumpers were assisted, only for that to drop to 27 percent assisted during the 16 playoff games he played. This isn’t all on him — many times, he’s the one who has to attempt to salvage a bad offensive possession with a tough shot. But Lowry has to play better for Toronto to go anywhere this postseason, and his Game 1 struggles were a painful callback to his poor postseason shooting.

Trends don’t necessarily dictate performance. They only provide a narrative for the past. None of his previous playoff showings, no matter how poor, are stopping him from turning it around in Game 2 or the postseason. But faced with the inescapable arms from the Bucks on the other side of the floor, Lowry will have to figure out how to be effective. Maybe, after all this time, he’s bound to catch a few lucky breaks with his jumpers. That would be a happier story than Lowry doomed to repeat his same postseason shortcomings, so we can at least root for that.