You might think no team this postseason could rely as heavily on their star point guard as much as the Oklahoma City Thunder relied on Russell Westbrook, but think again. In Memphis, the exact same thing is happening when Mike Conley leaves the floor.
Mike Conley is as important to the Grizzlies as Russell Westbrook is to the Thunder, and we have proof
Memphis can’t survive without Conley on the floor in their first-round series, which is just like Westbrook.
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In 66 minutes when Conley hasn’t played against San Antonio, the Grizzlies have been outscored by 60 points. Whenever he leaves the floor, they hemorrhage points and completely fall apart. Here are the two players compared, for reference.
NET RATINGS | ON COURT | OFF COURT | +/- ON | +/- OFF |
|---|
(Credit to the Grizzlies’ Michael Wallace for first digging up this stat.)
In the small-sample-size theater that is the postseason, a few major runs by a certain lineup can certainly have a huge impact. There are a few other huge plus-minus swings in the postseason: The Wizards have been outscored by 23 points in Bradley Beal’s 43 minutes off the court, and Chicago has lost by 26 in Dwyane Wade’s 69 minutes resting this series. But neither are nearly as severe as the two point guards above.
Westbrook was the story of the season, and the Thunder always fell apart when he sat throughout the entire year. We talked a lot about how that cost them the playoffs, and his on/off splits are admittedly even worse by a small margin. But now Westbrook is eliminated, and it’s time to do the same with Conley.
Why can’t Conley’s team survive when he’s off the floor?
The Grizzlies are actually pretty similar to the Thunder in two respects, and it’s the same two areas that are killing them.
- Memphis’ backup point guard, Andrew Harrison, is a below-average backup point guard who shot 32.5 percent in 80 games during the regular season. In Oklahoma City’s series against Houston, they tried two backup guards (Semaj Christon and Norris Cole) before giving up and putting Victor Oladipo at signal caller when Westbrook rested. None of those options worked, and the same thing is playing out in Memphis.
- Though the Grizzlies are a significantly better three-point shooting team than Oklahoma City, both have black holes on the wings. Where the Thunder ran out Andre Roberson and Jerami Grant, Memphis is stuck with Harrison, Wayne Selden, and James Ennis. San Antonio has proven they aren’t extremely interested in guarding those players, and being able to drop extra defenders into the paint is killing Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and the rest of the Grizzlies offense, which needs to operate within the three-point line without Conley around.
Once Conley — a strong shooting creator — enters the game, he can force the defense to guard him closely and break into the lane even when the defense is tight. Memphis obviously can’t expect to replicate him, but there’s no one on their roster who even approximates Conley’s skill set when he sits. The Spurs know this, and they have taken full advantage of it.
Conley is only averaging 36 minutes, and that includes an overtime period in the Game 4 win. The series shifts back to Memphis on Thursday for Game 6 with the Grizzlies’ season on the line. Though head coach David Fizdale clearly values rest for his players, this may be a situation where Conley needs to play well into the 40-minute range.
Right now, that’s the only way Memphis has proven they can beat the Spurs.
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