The NBA draft lottery will shape future Paul George trade rumors. Here’s how

The groundwork for what happens to Paul George this summer will be laid this week. George’s future with the Indiana Pacers is far from certain, and two enormous events on Tuesday and Thursday will shape whether George is more likely to save or leave.

On Tuesday, the NBA draft lottery will finalize the selections of picks for each team in the top 14. Two clubs prominently featured in the George trade sweepstakes will play a major role at the top of the lottery. The Celtics could pick first overall or as low as fourth, while the Lakers could have a top-three selection or none at all. If there’s a trade market for George, this could have an enormous impact.

After the lottery is settled, the NBA will announce the All-NBA team on Thursday. If George is on the All-NBA team, then he would be eligible for the new designated veteran clause, which means he could sign an extension with the Pacers for nearly $200 million. It would be more than $50 million more than other teams could pay him on the open market, and thus serve as enormous leverage for the Pacers if they are actively trying to keep him in Indiana when he hits free agency in 2018.

Nothing in the lottery directly affects the Pacers. Their No. 18 pick won’t be changed by where the ping pong balls land. However, the two teams that would dominate the trade market for Paul George are waiting for picks to be finalized: the Celtics and the Lakers.

Boston has been linked to every single superstar in the league, it seems like. They have assets galore and haven’t been able to pile them up into a superstar. (Or another superstar, depending how you feel about Isaiah Thomas.) If they get the first overall pick and Markelle Fultz, maybe they’ll stop hunting for a George or a Jimmy Butler. Or, maybe that’ll embolden their search further knowing they have the best draft asset in the league. If they don’t get the first overall pick, what is their draft pick worth to them?

If they are still on the superstar market, then how many assets Boston gets during this NBA draft matters for a potential trade down the road.

In Los Angeles, there’s always an irrational belief that every free agent who has ever walked on this earth wants to join Lakers Nation. However, this time there may be some backing to it: USA Today has reported several times that George is “hell-bent” on joining the Lakers, his hometown team growing up in the South California suburbs.

The Lakers have assets, but adding another tradeable young player (or a player who makes their other young players more expendable) could move the needle in a potential George deal. But if the Lakers fall out of the top three and lose their pick, that removes a potential asset to deal for George and makes their team less attractive.

George is still under contract for another season in Indiana. The Pacers barely made the postseason this year, but they have Myles Turner, a young stud at center who gives their team hope that they can get better through internal improvement even if they don’t make another huge move. If they felt George was committed to the team, there would be no reason to trade him.

However, reports like the one about the Lakers have to give Indiana pause. They can’t watch George leave in July 2018 as a free agent without anything in return. Allowing that to happen would cripple their window with Turner, who is poised to become the next face of the franchise. If they don’t trust that George will re-sign with the team, then dealing him to Boston or Los Angeles for a king’s ransom may be the smartest play.

The Pacers would feel immensely better about their chances at retaining George if they could offer more than $50 million more than anybody else. Money talks and cash rules everything around me, you know? Indiana might not be George’s dream franchise, but he may be able to look past that for an extra $50 million.

Unfortunately, George’s fate is in the hands of 100 media members, and the general consensus seems to be that George’s season just wasn’t quite good enough. It’s not his fault, really. He’s an All-NBA-caliber wing in a league full of them, and him averaging 23.7 points on 46 percent shooting, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.3 assists just might not be enough. As the significant other says during a breakup, it’s not you — it’s LeBron, KD, Kawhi, Giannis, Draymond, Anthony Davis, and Jimmy Butler.

It’s a tough situation for everyone involved.

Depending on what reports you believe, George was almost dealt at last year’s trade deadline, or he was shopped around with no real intention of dealing him. Now, Larry Bird has stepped down as the team’s president, so it’s hard to say how the new front office direction feels about this.

Trades are hard. Every team’s interest has to align correctly and at the right time, and neither side can get cold feet. When dealing a player whose name is as big as George, you have to be damn sure you’re doing the right thing. If the Pacers trust George and he leaves them for nothing, they’ll be called idiots for years. If they prematurely deal him away for a package that doesn’t produce any stars, the same thing will happen.

Given that, George is more likely to stay put in Indiana than leave this summer. But whatever happens, this week will serve as an important footnote for how it all went down.