Blake Griffin is still the best available NBA free agent

Blake Griffin ended his season early with an injury again, and the L.A. Clippers were ejected early in the NBA playoffs in ignominious fashion again. There’s a twist this time around: Griffin is an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. If the Clippers want to end this era, they can wave goodbye. If Griffin wants a fresh start, he can do the same. This cycle of success and untimely despair can end.

Will it? Probably not. Chris Paul and J.J. Redick are also free agents. Doc Rivers is not a rebuild coach, he’s a contenders’ coach. You’ll remember that Doc fled Boston when the tank rolled into town. In Los Angeles, Doc’s not just the coach: he’s also the decision-maker in the front office. Unless that changes, Doc Rivers The GM will want to give Doc Rivers The Coach the best roster possible.

That means retaining as much of that core as possible. The Clippers’ salary cap situation does not allow the team to sign an expensive player in place of any of those guys should they leave. Sign-and-trades remain rare and unlikely to bring significant return. The options really are to re-sign these guys or watch them leave for nothing.

CP3 is probably coming back to Los Angeles. The Clippers can offer in excess of $200 million over five years. They can do that because of a clause Chris Paul, as president of the players’ union, negotiated into the new collective bargaining agreement that goes into effect on July 1.

That fact doesn’t guarantee that CP3 intends to stay in L.A., but it’s a pretty good hint. CP3 is the best player the Clippers have ever had. He is the centerpiece to the franchise’s most successful run ever (on the court and financially). The Clippers are going to give him whatever it takes.

Redick is probably gone. He’ll be highly sought-after when the clock strikes midnight on July 1, and there’s no way the Clippers can make him a priority with CP3 and Griffin also on the market. When you’re looking at L.A.’s prospective payroll, Redick appears to be the odd man out.

Griffin? I do think the Clippers will make a play to bring Griffin back. The question is whether they’ll be successful.

We have no idea. We have no way of knowing. Griffin’s been rather mum on free agency, and he’s never been unrestricted before so we don’t have a track record to look back on.

A safe assumption is that he will want truckloads of money. A less safe but seemingly solid assumption is that he will want a chance to win games, perhaps a championship. But definitely money.

This is where the conversation has gotten hilarious, with many analysts (and many more fans) claiming they wouldn’t want to pay Griffin max money. Are you crazy? He’s a 28-year-old, four-time All-NBA player who has played in 84 percent of his team’s games since his league debut. If you strip his name from resume and look at the data, of course he’s a max player. You pray you get a chance to sign him to a max deal.

Injuries are a concern. Griffin has had a couple of knee surgeries plus a few other issues. But here’s the deal: if injuries weren’t a concern, there’d be no way he’d be available! If Griffin weren’t an injury risk, he’d be an MVP candidate. (He has in the past been a legit MVP candidate, finishing third in 2014.) The only reason there is any potential to grab Griffin in free agency is because the Clippers have fallen short a few times, sometimes due to Griffin’s injuries.

Every team with cap space and an opening at power forward wants Blake Griffin. The next best power forward is 32-year-old Paul Millsap. After that it’s Serge Ibaka, Danilo Gallinari, Pau Gasol, and Ersan Ilyasova. Millsap will get max offers. Ibaka will get a bunch of money. None of those other guys remotely stack up.

What other teams will want Blake Griffin in free agency? Most of them. All of them?

No. Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are the best 2017 NBA free agents.

No. It is overwhelmingly likely that both players quickly re-sign with Golden State.

Yes.

The contenders are Griffin, Gordon Hayward, CP3 (if he is indeed available), Millsap and Kyle Lowry. CP3, Millsap, and Lowry are all in their 30s. Hayward is a year younger than Griffin, and he’s more reliably healthy. But Griffin is more potent and proven as a player. No one ever calls Hayward a top-10 NBA player. As recently as two years ago, Griffin was legitimately considered a top-three NBA player.

You could make a fair case for Hayward as a better free agent option than Griffin. But I am unlikely to buy it. Don’t be a prisoner of the moment!

That depends. Fit matters. Health matters. Every major free agency decision is a dice roll, whether you’re signing an incumbent or bringing someone in. The record-breaking contracts for DeMar DeRozan and Mike Conley worked out last summer. The Rockets spent a combined $133 million on Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, both questioned for their durability, and it worked out. The $94 million contract for Chandler Parsons didn’t work out. The $72 million contract for Joakim Noah really didn’t work out.

The future is a mystery. But the odds are strong that Griffin plays really well when healthy, and that he plays (based on his history) about 80 percent of his team’s games. That would make most teams happy.