4 reasons the Rockets are slumping, and why it’s worrisome

The Houston Rockets don’t just have one problem, they have a damn collection of them as the first month of the season comes to a close. When Houston let both Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, its best perimeter defensive players, leave in free agency, the team’s glaring flaw felt obvious, but Houston’s also 4-6 with a bottom-end offense as well. The Rockets have a whole lot to fix — and nothing’s simple.

Last season, Mike D’Antoni’s offensive system was the most exaggerated adherence to modern basketball analytics to date. It nearly paid off, as his team won 65 games and nearly knocked off the Warriors in the Western Conference. It’s no surprise the same mindset is intact this year, but the problem is that the same talent isn’t. It’s older, injured, and frankly, not as skilled as it once was.

And that’s not all that was obvious in an 18-point loss to an Oklahoma City Thunder team without Russell Westbrook on Thursday night.

Let’s try and diagnose the battered contenders.

The most obvious causation for Houston’s slow start is that James Harden, Chris Paul, and Eric Gordon have combined to miss eight games. The team is 2-1 without Gordon, 1-2 without Harden and 0-2 without Paul.

Three of the best four players on the team missing time is 100 percent a valid reason for a team floundering, but it isn’t the only one.

We’ve only played 10 games, but it’s possible that 33-year-old Paul is finally regressing. Going into Wednesday night’s game, he was averaging his fewest points per game in 12 years (17.7) on the worst shooting of his life from the field (39.6 percent) and from three (29.5 percent), all while turning the ball over more frequently than ever (4.4 times per 100 possessions.)

This was always the risk Daryl Morey and co. ran by signing an aging superstar to a four-year, $160 million contract this summer. For Houston to win, it needs everyone at the top of their game by May. If not, they don’t have spare 20-points-per-night players like the Warriors. The Rockets are, and have always been, operating in a tight championship window.

Of course, Paul could recover just fine. It’s something to monitor.

One of the oddest offseason moves Houston could’ve possibly made actually happened when they signed a mid-range-happy, no-defense-playing 34-year-old Melo. Just like the Thunder, the Rockets have an Anthony problem.

Houston’s coaxed Anthony into accepting a bench role, which is more than his previous bosses can say. But even in more limited minutes, it’s getting harder to justify him playing at all.

In 37 minutes with Melo playing alongside Harden and Paul, Houston is being outscored by 14.8 points per 100 possessions. Anthony shoots just 44 percent from the field, wavers in and out of the team’s conscious effort against long two-point shots, and even more crushingly, hands over points on the other end.

It turns out he isn’t a viable Mbah A Moute or Ariza replacement, or even a Ryan Anderson replacement.

I keep harping on those two missing pieces in Mbah A Moute and Ariza, but it’s hard to understate how important they were last season. The league is depending more and more on its 6’5-to-6’9 guys to shoot, score, and create to lead an offense, and Houston let go of its best answers for those talents.

Shooters and slashers are having their way, and that’s alarming.

It’s just 10 games now, but if a similar level of play persists into the holidays, the Rockets are in deep trouble. They are in Win Now mode with a pair of in-their-prime stars and a maxed-out budget. Coming out of a hole like that won’t be simple.

If there’s anyone that can solve the issue, it’s a mastermind like Morey. The obvious move would be a trade for Jimmy Butler, but is there enough to offer? And what’s the backup plan?

Houston has a lot to worry about, especially with its competitors getting better by the day.