Why the Nuggets missing the playoffs would be an absolute disaster

Tuesday night should have been celebratory for the Denver Nuggets, but instead it was a wreck. The Western Conference playoff hopeful saw Paul Millsap return after nearly three months spent on the sidelines due to hand surgery. They led the Los Angeles Clippers by 21 points in the third quarter. But neither mattered in the end, as the Nuggets couldn’t stop their lead from crumbling in a Boban Marjanovic-led Clippers charge that ended in a 122-120 Denver loss.

It wasn’t just a blown lead or a loss, though — Denver is on the outside of the Western Conference playoffs if the season ended today, surpassed by the same Clippers that just beat them. The loss concedes their head-to-head tiebreaker to Los Angeles, too. FiveThirtyEight has dropped Denver’s chances of making the playoffs to 56 percent.

Denver’s playoff chances aren’t dead, and aren’t even drifting — they are what they make of them over the next six weeks. There are still eight teams within 6.5 games of each other between the No. 3 and No. 10 spots in the Western Conference currently. While the Timberwolves look safe and the Jazz should start getting nervous, everyone in that range is still competitive.

The Nuggets have missed the postseason five times running, but they were expected to get there this year, especially after last season’s second half surge that helped them break the 40-win plateau.

They badly need Millsap, who has only played about 500 minutes this season, because he’s their best chance at any defensive improvement. That side of the court is still a massive concern for Denver,

“Right now, we can’t guard anybody,” said coach Mike Malone, via The Denver Post’s Gina Mizell. “I’ve said it before, right now our defense is embarrassing. Those numbers can’t happen with 21 games to go and you’re trying to compete for a postseason berth.”

Denver has a young core coming together: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Will Barton have all shined offensively this season. Certainly, they believe this core can take them somewhere in the near future, and one step towards proving that would be making the postseason this year. That’s why they dealt a still-young prospect (Emmanuel Muiday) for a veteran (Devin Harris) at the deadline.

While the Nuggets aren’t a fundamentally different team if they finish as the No. 8 seed or end up a loss or two away from it, a playoff berth is crucial for ownership, for the fan base, and everyone involved. There’s more attention and extra ticket revenue, and it gives Denver the chance to build off actual serious games.

That’s important, since Denver is facing serious salary cap spikes over the next couple seasons. Gary Harris’ extension kicks in next year, starting at $16.5 million. Barton will be a free agent and needing to be re-signed, assuming the Nuggets see him in this future core. If Wilson Chandler opts out of his $12.8 million option and Darrell Arthur opts into his $7.4 million option, Denver is already facing a payroll of about $92 million guaranteed. Chandler’s not guaranteed to opt out, either. Regardless, Barton’s new contract will occupy all of their remaining cap space.

That’s all assuming they don’t re-sign Jokic this summer. They’re facing a complicated decision with him — decline his cheap team option so that they are guaranteed to bring him back through restricted free agency, or keep him for pennies — just $1.6 million — another season only to risk him hitting unrestricted free agency in 2019. SB Nation’s Tom Ziller further details the conundrum here. Keeping Jokic either way is a must, but that’ll jack their payroll up even further.

Is this young core plus a few years of the already 33-year-old Millsap enough to turn the Nuggets roster into a playoff regular or more over the next few seasons?

If it isn’t, Denver might need to reconsider handing out these large price tags this coming summer and the next one. But a playoff push in these final months would help reassure this team that they’re on the right path.