The Spurs are really, seriously in trouble this year

The San Antonio Spurs’ effort on Thursday was valiant, even given the circumstances — Stephen Curry went out two minutes into the game, but they were still facing the Golden State Warriors. Their eventual three-point loss, 110-107, was closer than it should have been, and moral victories like that would once have been praised as the Spurs being the Spurs.

Not this year. Every win is crucial, as San Antonio has lost nine of their last 12 games against an unrelenting schedule that has no signs of slowing up. Every win is necessary, as the Spurs still sit just two games up on the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz, two teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

“We got the win and that’s what matters,” Gregg Popovich said after Monday’s narrow win against a Certified Bad Team, the tanking Memphis Grizzlies. That’s not how we’re used to the Spurs thinking, but this year, it’s the only mindset that they can take.

This road trip is brutal: the Spurs play in Oklahoma City on Saturday and in Houston on Monday. Two more losses are plainly visible.

This month is even tougher: all but one team that the Spurs face this month, a March 13 clash against Orlando on the second night of a back-to-back, are teams in playoff contention. They face Golden State again on March 19, and they have extremely important West playoff clashes against New Orleans (March 15), Utah (March 23), and Oklahoma City again (March 29). These are crucial clashes for standing tiebreaker purposes, but even more important for San Antonio, who barely has any “easy” wins left on the schedule.

San Antonio’s April schedule lets up, but only slightly. They still face Houston on April 1, Portland on April 7, and New Orleans on April 11. San Antonio has the toughest strength of schedule against remaining opponents (.569) in the league.

The Spurs have clearly overcome greater odds, and it’s incredible that they’ve still built a 37-28 record this season, all things considered. But their 50-game win streak, which dates back to the 1999-00 season, will likely come to a close this year barring an almost impossible 13-4 finish to the season. Their playoff streak is in serious jeopardy, too.

San Antonio’s plans, of course, has been wrecked by Kawhi Leonard’s mysterious injury and absence, one that has only limited him to only nine games. There is still hope that Leonard will return this season, but in what shape and manner still remains to be seen. During his brief return in December and January, Leonard practically only played in every other game. In that stretch, he only averaged 23 minutes per contest, but clearly any return of last year’s MVP second-runner-up would be welcomed. He’s the one thing that Spurs fans should still remain hopeful for even as their team sputters, and a return is their last chance to dramatically change the remaining math that’s stacked against them.

Gregg Popovich performed his usual Spurs wizardry to eek as much out of this roster as humanly possible, and perhaps a little bit more. It’s possible that magic elixir is running dry now. Against a terrifying schedule in this final month, and with Leonard’s situation still in limbo, the Spurs will have to fight like hell to make this year’s playoffs. That’s a sentence that hasn’t been written about this team in decades.

San Antonio’s longterm future is muddy, but we’re not ready to worry about their dynasty just yet. They’ve proven that they always bounce back. But the short-term outlook is bleak, and Leonard’s return might not even be enough to save them. That’s a weird, but true, sentence to write about a team that has always proven us wrong.