John Wall is back for the Washington Wizards, and with him comes a rejuvenated Eastern Conference playoff team. We count out the Wizards a little too easily these days, but a Wall-led team still poses a dangerous first round foe to whoever they encounter.
John Wall is back. What does that mean for the Wizards in the playoffs?
It’s a little bit too soon to count out Washington. They’ve been here before!
Look, OK, you’re shaking your head. It’s just the Wizards. It’s been hard lately to put too much faith into them, but the fact remains that Washington has won a playoff round three of the past four seasons. In the postseason, Wall and Bradley Beal historically come through — Wall averages 21 points and 10 assists, while Beal scores 22 points per game with four assists of his own. The Wizards have somehow garnered a reputation as playoff disappointments, it feels like, even though they were one quarter away from the Eastern Conference Finals last year and historically aren’t “chokers” at all.
This year has been weird — there’s no doubt about that. Other storylines in the Eastern Conference have dominated, while the Wizards have dragged well behind, bringing an injured Wall with them. Last season, Washington broke the longest division title losing streak in North American professional sports during a 49-win year, one that saw them finish with a respectable No. 4 seed in the conference. None of that magic was here this season, even if a strong finish from Washington would put them only a few games behind their spot last year.
There was wild speculation about the Wizards played better without Wall, but Saturday’s performance should have shot that down. (And that’s only if you ignore how Washington had played lately without him.) Wall was purposeful and reminded the Wizards offense what they needed by scoring 15 points and recording 14 assists. He was rusty in some areas — he missed 11 of his 17 shots — but that will wear off. Physically, Wall looked phenomenal.
What does Wall do for the Wizards?
He gives them another star, and the postseason is often about pure star power matched up against each other. There’s a really good Washington team hidden somewhere among their overdribbling nature, and it felt like the Wizards team that went without Wall had found it in spurts. That nature should continue, to an extent, even while Wall remains in. He should be open to passing slightly more quickly, with assurances that the Wizards will get the ball back to him if a good shot doesn’t materialize. Often, it does.
All these lineups have worked well this season. The original starting five — Wall, Beal, Otto Porter Jr., Markieff Morris, and Marcin Gortat — outscores opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions, which is a great figure for a lineup that has played 453 minutes. When an injured Wall was replaced by Tomas Satoransky, that same lineup played about 500 minutes while beating teams by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions.
If the Wizards replace Morris with a forward for a more modern look — in this case, Kelly Oubre Jr. — then Washington remains a killer. In 200 minutes, that lineup beats team by 17.6 points per 100 possessions. These top lineups can play.
What do the Wizards do in the playoffs?
Washington has a real chance against the Philadelphia 76ers — though nobody wants to play them, at least with a healthy Joel Embiid — or the Boston Celtics, who are also beat up with injuries. I don’t like their odds against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and there’s probably no chance at this point to play anyone else.
That leaves a few positive scenarios. They won’t catch the Indiana Pacers, a full three games ahead of them, for the No. 5 seed. They could drop from No. 6 to No. 7, thus definitely avoiding the Cavs in the first round and looking in a winnable first round series. Washington also could be rooting for Philly to take that No. 3 spot over Cleveland, but that idea felt much more obtainable until Embiid’s broken facial bone.
But the key is Wall, and he’s back. This team has been here before, and you can forget about them at your own peril.











