The 2016 Cavaliers coming back from a 3-1 Finals deficit to the Warriors has caused at least two years of inevitable basketball that never could’ve been predicted. Had the Cavaliers squandered at the sight of that deficit, Kevin Durant wouldn’t have joined a 73-win team and wrecked nearly every team in his way. Instead, one anomaly caused another.
This is what the NBA would have looked like if the Warriors didn’t blow a 3-1 lead
Things would look a heck of a lot different.


Playing the “What if” game is a tricky road to slide down when reviewing the year-by-year transactions of NBA teams. In a league defined by just a handful of superstar players, one change can re-write history.
With the Golden State Warriors sweeping the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-0, for their third title in four years, fans are fatigued. The once lovable Warriors aren’t so much anymore, and Kevin Durant’s summer 2016 signing is a big reason why. It’s wild to think back at how it almost didn’t happen.
Follow me down the “What if” trail.
The Cavs fall to the Warriors, 4-1, in 2016. KD stays in Oklahoma City.
Kevin Durant has already stated that he wouldn’t have signed with the Warriors had they won the 2016 championship. This isn’t even a hypothetical, he flat out wouldn’t have joined a title team.
“It felt like that whole thing was set up for me to leave,” Durant told Rolling Stone. “Especially after they blew a lead in the finals, because I damn sure wasn’t going there if they’d won. But after Game Seven, I called up my agent and said, ‘Damn, dude, Golden State – what if?’ ”
Had this happened, the pressure would be on for every other GM.
With Golden State off the table, maybe Durant goes to another team ready to compete — Boston, San Antonio, Miami, and the LA Clippers were the other teams granted meetings in the Hamptons that summer. But his likeliest option would’ve been to return to OKC, where he’d make the most guaranteed money on the longest contract.
He and Russell Westbrook may never have had the fallout they did, and maybe they could’ve given the Thunder their first title. Maybe Westbrook’s triple-double rampage energy could’ve gone to championship use, and just maybe Al Horford would’ve been with him.
Without KD, Golden State re-signs Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut
Without another talent coming in to replace Barnes, maybe Golden State opts to keep him on a maximum deal after winning two straight championships with him in the starting lineup. They retain Bogut, too. No other superstars are willing to join the winningest team of all time anyway.
Investing money in a small forward with flaws and no real superstar potential, and a center whose game becomes outdated, leaves holes in a Warriors offense that was once viewed as historic. The Warriors go to the playoffs, but fall short of a three-peat since they’re not dominating with two MVPs and the rest of the league catches up.
Steph Curry wins a third MVP, though
Without Durant, and the voter fatigue that comes along with him, Curry is able to take the helm of the Warriors offense for good, and rack up unprecedented numbers. Rather than viewed as the three-point assassin for the league’s most hated team, he’s propped up as a lovable legend and one of the few to win the MVP award thrice.
LeBron stays with the Cavs his entire career because of infinite cap flexibility
The Cavaliers put their all into competing with the Golden State Warriors’ monster team, because they had no other choice. With James signing one-year contracts, everything and anything had to be done to keep him happy and willing to stay in Cleveland.
Sometimes that meant overpaying for players James wanted around him. In 2016, that meant J.R. Smith had to hold out for three weeks of training camp to sign a four-year, $57 million deal ($45 million was guaranteed). The year before that, Tristan Thompson missed training camp and the entirety of preseason to sign a five-year, $82 million deal. The Cavs had little choice but to give in to these overpriced deals. Now that’s come to haunt him.
But without Durant in Golden State, Cleveland has its options, either signing Thompson and Smith to more reasonable deals or looking elsewhere to find comparable talent that will. Maybe that sort of flexibility lets the Cavs bring in another talent next to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Maybe Cleveland wins another title ... or two! Maybe LeBron even stays forever because he has unfinished business.
The Rockets never sign Chris Paul
Without Durant, GM Daryl Morey and co. don’t even consider acquiring a pricy Paul, who’s only available by trading a collection of assets. The team banks on James Harden’s growth alongside Clint Capela and whichever free agents it can attract.
Paul probably still leaves the Clippers after they fall short again. But his talents are brought elsewhere, because two star point guards are deemed unnecessary in Houston.
Kevin Durant’s signing in Golden State changed the entire landscape of the league. In some ways, it made teams think smarter, work the cap harder, and expand fans’ belief on how great a team could possibly be.
For the Cavaliers, their fans, and James himself, Durant’s signing brought two years of false Finals hope after the single most exciting Finals year of all-time in 2016. Little did they know coming back from a 3-1 deficit would hurt them in the long run.
Nobody understood just how super a superteam could be until the Warriors swarmed KD in the Hamptons. If Golden State finishes the job in 2016, maybe we never find out.
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