Which of these 5 NBA trends are legit?

The NBA season is roughly three weeks old. Almost all teams have played 10 games. That’s not really enough of a sample size to determine whether or not a trend will hold, but it’s enough data to at least start the discussion.

We’re going to look at some positive team and individual trends from the season’s first few weeks, and one negative one. For each, we’ll decide if we think the trend is real and likely to continue, or if we think water will eventually find its level.

(Note: All records and stats through games played as of Monday, November 7)

The Utah Jazz have easily been the biggest positive surprise to open the 2022-23 NBA season. Well…unless you wanted them to tank for Victor Wembanyama. In that case, you’re probably pretty unhappy.

That’s because the Jazz are 9-3.

Yup. Utah has the third-best record in the NBA as we approach mid-November.

Many thought it might be a couple of months before the Jazz won their ninth game of the season. Instead, Utah looks like they might be in the early stages of a very unexpected playoff push.

The Jazz are winning behind a combination of a very efficient offense, a better-than-expected defense and a relatively weak schedule.

Utah’s offense currently sports a 116.2 rating, which is third in the NBA. That offense has been buoyed by above-average shooting in every zone. When the Jazz do miss, they are rebounding 27.9% of those misses, which is good for fourth in the league.

Essentially: The Jazz offense has been virtually unstoppable. The only weakness right now is the team’s turnover rate, but that’s basically league average.

On defense, Utah is around the middle-of-the-pack, which is commendable for a team with so many new faces. Oddly enough, given their proficiency on the offensive glass, the Jazz are sporting one of the worst defensive rebounding rates in the NBA.

Lastly, the schedule has been pretty easy thus far. The Jazz have faced the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers twice apiece. Those two teams are a combined 4-17 on the young season. They also got two home victories over the Memphis Grizzlies when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane each missed one game.

Real or Not Real? Not Real

Yes, the Jazz are a great story. It’s easy to envision Danny Ainge having outsourced another tank job (this time to the Minnesota Timberwolves who are having some issues), while he builds a winner around castoffs and leftovers. Maybe that is what’s happening here.

However, the offense isn’t going to stay this strong. Lauri Markkanen is shooting an absurd 87.8% on attempts at the rim, after hovering around 66% for most of career. His scoring should stay strong, as his three-point percentage picks up, but Markkanen may not continue to live up to the “Finnisher” nickname.

The team’s starting guards are both likely to fall off shooting-wise too, as Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson are both above their career-marks from behind the arc. Kelly Olynyk has been a revelation in the frontcourt, but he’s certainly not going to shoot 58.8% from three all season.

Jarred Vanderbilt will probably maintain his prowess on the offensive boards, and maybe Walker Kessler is a new-age Enes Kanter as far as corralling his team’s misses, but the rest of the guys are likely to fall off.

On defense, opposing teams are going to start shooting better. Especially when Utah sees some better-shooting teams. Those two Lakers games are juicing the numbers a bit.

Lastly, we have to factor in that Ainge isn’t married to anyone on this roster. If the right trade comes along, Ainge will make it. He’s playing the long game in Utah. Even if that means taking a step back in what’s been a fun season, Ainge will make a move if he has one.

This one is going to be much quicker. Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum is shooting 8.9 free throws per game. That’s easily his career-high mark, topping last season’s 6.2 free throw attempts per game.

Real or Not Real? Real

Here are Tatum’s free throw attempts per game since he came into the NBA:

· 2017-18: 3.2

· 2018-19: 2.9

· 2019-20: 4.7

· 2020-21: 5.3

· 2021-22: 6.2

· 2022-23: 8.9

Outside of a blip in 2018-19, when Boston had a million mouths to feed, Tatum has seen his free throw rate grow each season.

Not only is Tatum drawing more free throws, he’s taking a lot of shots in places to draw those free throws. Tatum is taking 38.8% of his shots in and around the paint. He’s basically eliminated the mid-range and long-two-point shots that used to make up around 20% of his shot profile.

And, this one is harder to quantify, but Tatum seems to have earned the respect of the officials now that he’s in Year six and an established All-NBA player. He’s drawn 33 shooting fouls through 10 games. That’s nearly one more call per game than the 2.5 shooting fouls Tatum drew per game a year ago.

The Cavs are 8-2 and off to their best start in forever. They overcame an early-season eyelid injury to Darius Garland to just keep rolling along.

Much like the Utah Jazz, Cleveland is winning behind a high-level offense-defense combo. The Cavaliers offensive rating is 116.0, which ranks fourth in the league. The defensive rating is 105.2, which is second in the NBA. And the Cavaliers have the league’s best net-rating at +10.9 points.

Cleveland is drilling 39.9% of their three-pointers to open the season. (An aside: Cleveland should be shooting more threes. They are only 14^th in the NBA in three-point attempt rate.) The Cavs are middle-of-the-pack in turnover rate, and surprisingly given their size, in offensive rebound percentage.

Defensively, the Cavs are a monster, which was somewhat expected. They are holding teams to 45% shooting overall, while also limiting opponents to just 31.4 three-point attempts per game. And, as was maybe expected, Cleveland is the best defensive rebounding team the NBA, as they are grabbing 81% of all available defensive boards.

Schedule-wise, things have been pretty balanced. The Cavaliers have two overtime victories over the Boston Celtics so far, and their only two losses have come on the road by a combined five points to the Toronto Raptors and LA Clippers.

Real or Not Real? Mostly real.

The Cavaliers offense isn’t going to be this good all season. Five regulars are hitting better than 38% from downtown. That isn’t going to continue. The team’s free throw rate will probably tick down a few notches as well. Essentially: the offense won’t continue to come quite as easily as it has.

But what makes this start mostly real is that Cleveland will probably remain one of the NBA’s best defenses. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are both monsters. Allen cleans up everything inside. If he doesn’t block you, he’s going to clean up the glass after you miss. Mobley is as switchable and terrorizing on everyone from point guards to centers as the NBA has seen since Kevin Garnett. And Donovan Mitchell is getting after it on defense, for a chance, which offsets his lack of size for a traditional off-guard.

The wins over the Celtics were the real deal for Cavs. Last year was the step-forward season. Now Cleveland is here, and they aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

The defending champs are off to a 4-7 start. The Warriors already have losses to the Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic on their ledger. Golden State recently went 0-for-5 on an East Coast swing that featured those three aforementioned losses.

The Warriors offense is just middle-of-the-pack, despite Stephen Curry being off to a scorching start. The defense has been awful. Golden State isn’t forcing misses, not rebounding when they do, and they are fouling more than any team in the NBA.

Did Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole break the team? Is this fixable? What’s the deal?

Real or Not Real? Not real.

Champions get the benefit of the doubt longer than other teams. Those are the rules. But…there are real concerns.

The fouling at a high rate has always been somewhat of a thing for this team. But this year it’s taken a jump to a whole new level. That can often be the sign of an aging team that is just enough slower on defense that they have to resort to being handsy when trying to get stops.

Stephen Curry is amazing, but there’s only so much he can do. Andrew Wiggins has also been really solid. But Draymond Green is really falling off. He’s not a threat to score outside of the paint. And Klay Thompson is shooting worse than he ever has. Thompson seems to be struggling to create any space to get off his once-deadly midrange shot, and his three-point shooting has dipped big time to open the year.

But the real problem for the Warriors is that they are getting nothing from their bench. Jordan Poole has been awful. He’s barely cracking 40% overall and he’s just over 30% from three. Given the number of shots Poole takes (15.4 attempts per game in just 28.8 minutes), he’s been one of the more-damaging high-volume players in the league.

Beyond Poole, Steve Kerr is relying on his kids. James Wiseman has been horrible. The Warriors crater when Wiseman plays, as they are a whopping -22.9 points/100 possessions worse than their opponents when he’s on the floor. Things have been just as bad when Jonathan Kuminga plays, albeit in slightly fewer minutes.

If the Warriors are going to defend their title, that has to change. Either the kids have to get better, or Bob Myers needs to look at trading them for proven commodities.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off to a terrific individual start for the Oklahoma City Thunder. He’s averaging 30.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. Gilgeous-Alexander is also shooting a career-high 53.9% from the field.

Because the Thunder have asked Josh Giddey to take on more of the playmaking in his second year, Gilgeous-Alexander is able to focus more than ever on scoring. The fifth-year guard is also right where he was a year ago by drawing 7.1 free throw attempts per game.

Real or Not Real? Real…ish.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most slithery player in the league. He gets through spaces few others can. Like a running back popping through a hole that’s only sort of there, Gilgeous-Alexander regularly splits defenses by getting skinny through traps. It’s not uncommon to see SGA come off a screen and draw two defenders (a regular occurrence given OKC’s lack of shooting). But then he apparates and appears on the other side of the trap to put pressure on the rim.

Gilgeous-Alexander is taking a career-high 21.4 field goal attempts per game, but he’s halved his three-point attempts from 5.3 per game a year ago to just 2.6 per game this season.

He’s also shooting a very good 73.5% on shots at the rim. That’s great because 25.4% of Gilgeous-Alexander’s shots are coming at the cup. Overall, a whopping 56% of SGA’s shots are coming in and around the paint. That’s easily the highest rate of his career, and he’s converting most of those looks.

For a maybe easier-to-understand translation: Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in both two-point field goal attempts and makes, as he’s 97-of-170 through nine games.

When he gets fouled, which is happening at the same rate he established a year ago, Gilgeous-Alexander is nearly perfect. He’s 62-of-64 from the charity stripe so far on the season.

Lastly, Gilgeous-Alexander is being assisted on 17.5% of his two-point field goals. That’s the highest rate he’s had since he was playing with Chris Paul in the 2019-20 season. That’s the impact of Josh Giddey making the game a bit easier for his backcourt partner.

The shooting will probably drop a bit, especially the absurd 53.2% on mid-rangers and 60% on long-twos. But if the three-point shooting picks up a bit, in both volume and percentage, that will more than balance-out.

Gilgeous-Alexander might not average 30 points per game this season. But he’s not going to fall too short of that mark. And that’s a remarkable place to be for a 24-year-old that doesn’t have a ton of established help around him on offense.