Grading the C.J. McCollum trade for the Pelicans and Trail Blazers

The Portland Trail Blazers are finally shaking up their core — and appear to be on the brink of a full scale rebuild. Portland is trading veteran guard C.J. McCollum to the New Orleans Pelicans for a package headlined by Josh Hart, a future first round draft pick, and more, according to multiple reports.

In addition to Hart, the Blazers are also receiving Tomas Satoransky, Nickeil Walker-Alexander, Didi Louzada, New Orleans’ 2022 first round pick (protected 1-4 and 15-30), and two second round picks, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. The Pelicans are also adding Larry Nance Jr. and Tony Snell in the deal.

McCollum and Damian Lillard have been the foundation of the Blazers for almost a decade. The duo has helped lead the franchise to eight straight playoff appearances, but they never advanced past the conference finals. After Lillard was involved in very public trade rumblings all summer, it’s his backcourt mate that is first to leave town. This deal follows the Blazers trading Norman Powell and Robert Covington to the Los Angeles Clippers a few days earlier.

Now 30 years old, McCollum has established himself as one of the game’s better backcourt scorers. The 6’3 guard will be expected to provide a necessary injection of three-point shooting and off-the-dribble scoring to a Pelicans team fighting for play-in position in the Western Conference.

After a nightmare season, this deal officially marks the end of the Blazers’ time as a Western Conference contender. The Pelicans hope it’s the start of a prolonged playoff run of their own. Let’s grade this deal for both sides.

McCollum’s game has always been defined by his scoring ability. He’s averaging more than 20 points per game for the seventh consecutive season this year. He comes to New Orleans as a 39.6 percent three-point shooter for his career.

The Pelicans’ offense could certainly use a boost. New Orleans currently ranks No. 23 in both offensive efficiency and three-point rate. As a team, the Pelicans make 32.9 percent of their three-pointers, which ranks No. 26 in the league.

McCollum’s scoring efficiency has dropped off a bit this year. His 53.2 true shooting percentage is the worst of his career. He’s never been known as a guard who consistently gets to the rim, and prefers to pull-up from midrange when he’s not shooting threes. McCollum takes 41 percent of his shots from midrange, per Cleaning the Glass, and makes those shots at a 44 percent clip this season. He’s typically been a few percentage points better than that throughout his career.

McCollum’s biggest issues are on the defensive end. His lack of size limits the type of players he can credibly guard. Portland caught flack for years for putting together a tiny defensive backcourt of Lillard and McCollum, and it will be interesting to see if New Orleans can pair him with a better defensive complement. Right now, the Pelicans have another small guard in DeVonte’ Graham in the starting lineup, though he’s shooting a paltry 36.4 percent from the field on the season.

McCollum is on an expensive contract that will pay him $33.3 million next season and $35.8 million in 2023-24. Will he be expected to play point guard or shooting guard for the Pelicans? As New Orleans loses a key defensive stopper in Hart in this trade, it would make sense for Portland to target a bigger, defensive-minded guard next to McCollum.

Zion Williamson hasn’t played a game for the Pelicans as he recovers from a foot injury, but McCollum’s shooting and scoring would seem to pair well with the bruising forward. Add in scoring wing Brandon Ingram, offensive-minded center Jonas Valanciunas, and an emerging lockdown defender in rookie forward Herb Jones, and New Orleans now has a solid foundation for future contention. It all rests on Williamson getting healthy and playing like the superstar he has the potential to be.

While the loss of Hart will sting for New Orleans, the Pelicans did well to add a defensive-minded forward in Larry Nance Jr. in the deal. Nance has struggled a bit in his first year in Portland coming over from the Cleveland Cavaliers, but at his best he’s a 6’7, 245-pound forward who can wreck havoc defensively and provide a bit of both outside shooting and inside scoring. Nance just turned 29 years old and is under contract for just under $10 million next season. He should certainly be a rotation player in the New Orleans front court. Snell will give the Pelicans another 3-and-D option on the wing even if he’s extremely low usage offensively.

It’s easy to view McCollum as a bit overrated because he’s a defensive liability in the backcourt who isn’t an elite playmaker and doesn’t consistently get to the rim. I can see the vision for New Orleans here, though. The Pelicans need shooters next to Williamson once he returns, and McCollum is a major talent upgrade over anything else they had in the backcourt. He’s expensive for the next two years, but this is a decent gamble to maximize the team while Williamson is still on his rookie contract.

The worry here is that McCollum simply isn’t an efficient scorer anymore. He’s been below average in shooting efficiency in four of the last five years. It’s possible that the defensive attention Williamson and Ingram command will open up more opportunities for McCollum, and allow him to focus on what he’s good at — which is draining threes.

The inclusion of Nance also helps this deal look better for New Orleans. He can help keep the defense afloat after Hart was traded, and can hold down minutes at the four next to either Valanciunas or Jones until Williamson returns.

This is an expensive gamble by the Pelicans, but it makes sense to go after an upgrade in the backcourt. If CJ can get back to being the best version of himself, this could work out.

The Pelicans should be able to make the play-in tournament for sure after this deal. Can they actually make the playoffs? There’s an opportunity in the West, but it still won’t be easy with the Lakers and Clippers potentially also in the play-in mix.

The Blazers have been defined by the Lillard-McCollum backcourt pairing for almost a decade. While that era of the team never produced an NBA Finals appearance, it did win a lot of games. The question now is what becomes of Lillard. It would be a surprise to see him remain in Portland much longer after so much public trade speculation over the offseason.

Woj reports that Portland is determined to reload around Lillard, not trade him.

This trade is mostly about the future picks and saving money for the Blazers. Hart has quietly become a very solid two-way wing who could fetch more assets on the trade market should Portland decide to flip him. Nickeil Alexander-Walker also has some potential as a big guard who was taken No. 17 overall in the 2019 draft, but he’s struggled immensely this year as a scorer.

The Blazers were over the luxury tax before this trade. The deal will save the franchise plenty of money, which is likely their main motivation even if they say now they want to reload around Dame.

Ultimately, it feels like the Blazers sold pretty low on McCollum, but there’s no doubt the time was right to blow this thing up. What comes next for Portland is anyone’s guess, but the assumption will be that Lillard is wearing a new uniform either by the start of next season or shortly after that.

Portland did better in this trade than they did by sending Powell to the Clippers days earlier. Hart is a useful player, and the future picks will help jump start the rebuild. It’s just hard to get excited about this move if you’re the Blazers.

Here’s how the draft compensation works:

Former Portland executive Neil Olshey, who was fired for workplace misconduct earlier this season, simply held onto the Lillard-McCollum pairing for too long. That’s the thing that stings the most for the Blazers. Now that Olshey and McCollum are out, it’s finally time for the next iteration of the franchise.