Bracketology 2011: As Bubble Teams Win And Lose, NCAA Tournament Clarity Approaches

Penn State, who was in the Next Four Out group of Friday morning’s bracket projection, moves into the First Four Out group after upsetting Wisconsin in their Big Ten quarterfinal by the unbelievably low score of 35-33. Thanks to a lack of quality non-conference wins and struggles away from State College, the Nittany Lions really need to beat Michigan State tomorrow to have a realistic chance of getting in the field, and even then they’ll likely need help.

Richmond moved on to the Atlantic 10 semifinals after topping Rhode Island, 55-45. The Spiders have been living on the edge of the bracket for the past few weeks, so they’d love to keep winning and earn the conference’s auto bid. A game against a Temple team that has a shot at a top five seed is next for Chris Mooney’s team.

In the SEC, Tennessee fell to Florida for the third time this season, 85-74. The Volunteers continue to look like a great candidate for an 8 vs. 9 game next week, while the Gators have a serious case for a No. 2 seed if they win out in Atlanta, particularly with Purdue’s recent struggles.

The other bubble team in action in the early Friday night window, Colorado, put up a brave fight, but fell short against Kansas. The Jayhawks prevailed, 90-83, to continue their push toward a No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes have likely done enough, thanks to their six wins over the RPI Top 50.

Back on November 30th, Michigan won at Clemson in a Big Ten/ACC Challenge game that didn’t seem terribly noteworthy at the time. It certainly didn’t appear to be a game pitting two NCAA Tournament teams against each other, but after both teams won in their respective conference tournament quarterfinals, it may very well be. Both clubs appeared in our Friday Bracketology projection, and they’ll remain in Saturday’s with the wins.

The Wolverines used some late three-point shooting to get past Illinois, 60-55. For the record, the Illini, who have been inconsistent down the stretch should hear their name called on Sunday night. The victory was Michigan’s fourth over a team rated in the RPI Top 50 (Illinois has just three, for comparison’s sake), and they’ll get the chance at a fifth tomorrow against archrival Ohio State.

Georgia, one of the “next four teams” in our Friday Bracketology projection (meaning they didn’t need to worry about traveling to the Opening Round in Dayton), is in serious trouble of not making the NCAA Tournament now. The Bulldogs had a 14-point lead on Alabama with seven minutes to go in their SEC Tournament quarterfinal in Atlanta, but fell to the Crimson Tide in overtime, 65-59.

With that result, Georgia is out and Alabama is in, right?

Ohio State was the top overall seed in our Friday morning 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket projection, and they will remain so through tomorrow, even though Northwestern took them to overtime in the first Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal in Indianapolis.

Fans of teams on the bubble will definitely want to keep tabs on the Atlantic 10 Tournament in Atlantic City, which saw another league No. 1, Xavier, start slow. Ninth-seeded Dayton opened up a 21-3 lead on the Musketeers, then held on for a 68-67 victory after Terrell Holloway’s three at the buzzer refused to go down. The Flyers, a team with more than enough talent to make a late run at the A-10’s automatic bid, faces the winner between Duquesne or St. Joseph’s in Saturday’s semifinals.