College football is, almost always, the most reliable vector for chaos in sports. The college football polls are just waiting for temblors, and we got one last week with South Carolina’s upset of Alabama. But might there be more on the horizon? At least one BCS championship contender should be on serious upset alert this week.
Shaking Up The College Football Rankings: Ohio State’s Safe, But What About Auburn?
This week in college football brings a showdown that shouldn’t be trouble for Ohio State, but Auburn needs to be on upset alert.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Wisconsin, 7:00 p.m
Don't believe the hype about the home field advantage Camp Randall Stadium gives the Badgers. They're 0-3 at home against ranked teams since 2008, and only the 20-17 loss to an Ohio State team led by freshman Terrelle Pryor was a one-possession game. This Wisconsin team isn't all that special, either: the Badgers' best win is a one-point home victory over Arizona State that could have been very different had a) a kick returner not been brought down at the Wisconsin 1 at the end of the first half or b) Jay Valai not blocked a late, game-tying extra point.
These Buckeyes haven’t quite looked invincible, and struggled in their only road game to date, at Illinois. But the defense should shut down Wisconsin’s run-first, run-second offense, and Pryor certainly has improved since his freshman campaign.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. If Scott Tolzien tears up the Buckeyes through the air, all bets are off. Also, Tolzien should make a bee-line for Vegas after the game.
No. 5 Nebraska vs. Texas, 3:30 p.m.
For Nebraska, this game is revenge for the 2009 Big 12 Championship Game, a kiss-off to the school that came to rule a conference the Big Ten-bound Cornhuskers once dominated, and a home game against a team with both offensive and defensive woes. It’s also been the focus of some serious Big Red marketing for this season.
And yet, the biggest reason Nebraska should be favored heavily is the biggest reason the Huskers might fall: Taylor Martinez. Martinez is still a larval quarterback, many times better with his feet than his arm, and Texas has the athleticism to close his running lanes, much as Michigan State did to Michigan's Denard Robinson.
Whether Texas will or not is up for debate (the Longhorns did get run over by UCLA's pistol offense and Kevin Prince), but the 'Horns have the horses to make this close. And isn't it about time for Garrett Gilbert to have a starmaking turn?
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. Texas, coming off of two losses, is liable to be angry. But the Sea of Red will be seething, and that’s going to be rough for a rather young team.
No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 12 Arkansas, 3:30 p.m.
Get ready to hear a lot of praise for quarterbacks Cameron Newton and Ryan Mallett this weekend on CBS. They're the two most productive signal-callers in the SEC this season, and that will probably get them dubbed the best by Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson. But Mallett actually is the best; Newton will probably have to outplay him for Auburn to win this game.
That’s because Arkansas’ passing game is great (ranked third in the nation), and Auburn’s pass defense is porous, (ranked 91st, letting opponents complete 65.1% of passes) a mismatch that could send the Tigers tumbling. Arkansas’ defense has been good, too, giving up just over 300 yards a game.
So this one rests on Newton’s broad shoulders, and if he can help Auburn’s offense stay on the field with long drives and keep Mallett’s flying circus off of it, the Tigers should stay unscathed. He can probably do that if he can run, but if the Razorbacks force Newton to pass, the Tigers are in trouble.
Chances of Upset: 45 percent. A shootout is likely; that definitely plays to the Razorbacks’ strengths.
No. 9 LSU vs. McNeese State, 7:00 p.m.
You laughed, and then you thought about it. Admit it.
Chances of Upset: Two percent. Two years ago, LSU needed 30 fourth-quarter points to come back at home against Troy. McNeese State is not Troy, not nearly, but there is definitely precedent for wackiness under Les Miles. Stranger things have happened to this team this season.
No. 10 South Carolina at Kentucky, 6:00 p.m.
Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less. The other way to write that stat: South Carolina’s won the last four games in the series, but three of those victories were by seven points or fewer.
Kentucky’s got enough offensive versatility to make the Gamecocks sweat a little, and the Stephen Garcia Random Outcome Generator probably won’t pop out a performance anywhere near the excellence of last weekend’s upset of Alabama. This is enough to give Big Blue Nation some hope.
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. But, you know, not a ton: since 1990, teams coming off upsets of the top-ranked school in the country are 8-1 against unranked opponents the next week.
No. 15 Iowa at Michigan, 3:30 p.m.
Iowa should win this game by two touchdowns or more. The Hawkeyes have a better defense than Michigan State, and will have had a week to watch the tape of the Spartans putting the screws to Michigan's spread-read offense. The Iowa offense isn't quite as potent as Michigan State's, but there's no doubt Ricky Stanzi should be able to put up points against Michigan's papier-mâché defense.
But Michigan has Denard Robinson.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. And having Denard Robinson means the Wolverines have a chance.
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