Shaking Up The College Football Rankings: BCS Contenders Missouri, Michigan State On Upset Alert

Sure, college football as most know it (sorry, FCS fans) still lacks a playoff system. But given the number of teams in the college football polls that could tumble from the BCS rankings with a loss this week, and the number of those losses that seem very conceivably, and perhaps probable, it’s hard not to consider these late season tilts de facto elimination games.

Expect points. Expect lots of points. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 in scoring offense, and neither in the top 25 in total defense. Oregon’s scoring defense is highly rated, but that’s certainly helped by games against New Mexico, Portland State, and, in Tennessee and UCLA, two teams with quarterbacks that scare no one.

The question of whether Oregon can survive will likely come down to whether the Ducks will be able to slow the Trojans. Against Pac-10 opponents, USC has rolled up 549.3 yards of total offense per game, and is yet to gain fewer than 484 yards against a conference foe. Oregon’s offense has been almost as good (537.3 yards per game against Pac-10 teams), but their bad day against Arizona State (just 385 yards) makes it clear that Oregon’s attack can ebb.

Chances of Upset: 25 percent. If there’s one team left in the Pac-10 that can score with Oregon and slow the Ducks down, it’s USC. And without the prospect of a bowl, this game is USC’s best chance to make waves this season.

Auburn losing is going to take a perfect storm; that’s just how good the Auburn offense and Cameron Newton are. But the combination of a letdown game after a huge win over LSU, a good effort from the mediocre Mississippi — which did hold Alabama to just 100 rushing yards — and something special from the Jeremiah Masoli-led Mississippi offense could well spawn that storm, and Houston Nutt’s legacy is pockmarked with unpredictability.

Chances of Upset: 15 percent. Then again, Mississippi’s bad day against Arkansas last week included the Rebels giving up 8.3 yards per play to the Razorbacks. And the Tigers have a better offense than Arkansas.

It’s not happening.

Chances of Upset: Zero percent. UNLV’s one win came against New Mexico. Terrible does not even begin to describe how bad New Mexico is.

You want a team that isn’t getting any respect from Las Vegas? Michigan State is undefeated, beat a team two-loss Iowa lost to, and is still a seven-point underdog in this game. So we’re not talking about an “upset” except in terms of a higher-ranked team going down.

Of course, Michigan State probably doesn’t deserve much respect. The Spartans have left the state of Michigan just once this year, and had to rally against Northwestern as a result. Against Iowa’s fearsome front four, falling behind might be the kiss of death.

Chances of Michigan State loss: 65 percent. The best thing about Michigan State’s offense is its balance. If Iowa can disrupt that, the Spartans will likely leave Iowa City with a loss.

Then again, Missouri’s not getting much from Vegas, either: the Tigers are seven-and-a-half-point underdogs for this weekend’s matchup in Lincoln. I suppose that’s because Missouri’s only impressive win is a home upset of Oklahoma, and that their only true road game thus far was at very average Texas A&M.

Nebraska has the chance to do a number on Missouri, too, because the Huskers have a much better defense than Oklahoma does, are more capable of an offensive explosion than any team Mizzou plays this season, and are at home. Be afraid, Tigers fans.

Chances of Missouri loss: 50 percent. Remember, though, that Missouri’s defense is quietly one of the better units in the country, and is particularly nasty in the red zone, allowing just 52.4% of opponents’ possessions to end in points. And Nebraska’s 80th-ranked red zone offense is nothing special.

All odds provided by OddsShark.