The college football season is drawing to a close, and Week 11 is strangely bereft of high-profile matchups. Only two games — Mississippi State at Alabama and South Carolina at Florida — feature two ranked teams. But does that mean that all the ranked teams will win and the BCS standings will look the same next week? Not necessarily. (But probably.)
BCS Standings Shake-Up: Oregon, Auburn Should Be Safe From Potential Week 11 Upsets
None of the top 10 teams in this week’s BCS rankings are facing a tough test in Week 11. But Cal welcoming Oregon to Berkeley might be rougher than expected for the No. 1-ranked Ducks.
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No. 1 Oregon at California, 7:30 p.m.
Cal at home means the Golden Bears might have a chance. They’re the nation’s most schizophrenic team, averaging 47.3 points per game while conceding just 8.5 points per game at home, and scoring 16.2 points per game on the road while giving up 31.6 points per contest. (Unsurprisingly, Cal is 4-0 at home and 1-4 on the road.)
Then again, Oregon scores 61.7 points per game at home — and 46.5 points per game on the road. Unless Brock Mansion lives up to his ridiculously awesome name in his first start for the Bears, Oregon should win this going away.
Chances of Upset: 15 percent. Oregon’s defense is flammable no matter the locale.
No. 2 Auburn vs. Georgia, 3:30 p.m.
Auburn’s seventh home game this season brings the resurgent Bulldogs to town, and there is a chance that the storm surrounding Cam Newton helps Georgia upset the Tigers. But in the 4-1 stretch Georgia has enjoyed since starting 1-4, the Bulldogs have shut down inferior teams and gotten into shootouts with Kentucky and Florida. This bodes poorly for a game against a team that averages 42.2 points per game.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. Last week, I joked about an alien invasion sideswiping Auburn and Cam Newton. Then the NCAA investigation storyline broke. In conclusion, the NCAA is run by aliens.
No. 3 TCU vs. San Diego State, 4:00 p.m.
TCU is due for a letdown game. San Diego State, 7-2 with two losses by a combined six points, is better than you think. And TCU’s playing on a channel people get (Versus), which might mean the Horned Frogs get stage fright or something.
Okay, fine, that last bit is ridiculous. But so is the idea of the Aztecs hanging with this TCU team.
Chances of Upset: Zero percent. TCU will be looking to hold an opponent under 10 points for the seventh straight game. That is insane.
No. 4 Boise State at Idaho, 9:00 p.m. Friday
Boise State has fallen behind TCU, maybe for good, in the polls and BCS standings. So all the Broncos can do at this point is play phenomenal football and hope that the voters decide their season has been more impressive than another undefeated team. That’s good news for Kellen Moore’s Heisman campaign — and terrible news for all of Boise’s opponents.
Chances of Upset: Zero percent. Boise State has won the last 11 games in the rivalry by a combined 561-199 score. That’s an average score of 51 to 18.1.
No. 5 LSU vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 7:00 p.m.
Once upon a time, the Warhawks upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa. That history and Les Miles coaching the other team might lead you to believe Louisiana-Monroe has a chance this Saturday.
Chances of Upset: Zero percent. Sorry, it doesn’t.
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. Indiana, noon
Indiana started 3-0; since, the Hoosiers are 1-5, and their lone win is a two-point victory over Arkansas State. This isn’t a squad that can throw a wrench into Wisconsin’s Rose Bowl plans.
Chances of Upset: One percent. Bill Lynch could get really mad and/or lucky, I guess.
No. 7 Stanford at Arizona State, 7:30 p.m.
Stanford's on the road, and Arizona State has already given Oregon a tough game in the desert. That's not a compelling reason to pick Steven Threet's team, but there aren't any others I can see: the Sun Devils' four wins this season have come against Northern Arizona, Portland State, Washington and Washington State.
Chances of Upset: Five percent. Turnovers could happen.
All rankings from AP Poll. All odds provided by OddsShark.
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