2010 Bowl Projections: Boise State May Smell Roses In Pasadena Or Stay Home

Much like TCU, Boise State’s BCS fate is still up in the air, making a bowl projection tricky.

Should Boise State win out, it seems likely to take the third slot in the final BCS rankings, sliding past TCU. If that happens, the Broncos will play in the Rose Bowl, probably meeting Wisconsin.

But if the Broncos win out and do not pass TCU, they might be playing a home game as their bowl.

As with TCU, the Broncos’ fate would be up to the BCS bowls, and after finding landing places for the Big 12, Big East, ACC, Big Ten champions, and TCU, bowl committees would likely be choosing from among LSU, Ohio State, Boise State, and either Nebraska, Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State for three berths.

Boise State’s national brand, built over a decade of fantastic play, wouldn’t help the Broncos much in that scenario. The Broncos wouldn’t be favored to be chosen before the swollen fan bases of LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, and might be on par with Oklahoma State, though the novelty of the Cowboys in a BCS game might give them the edge. (Boise State fans might want to root for Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma this weekend, then lose in the Big 12 Championship Game.)

But if Boise State should be snubbed by the BCS or lose before season’s end, their safety net is the bowl played on their blue field: the Humanitarian Bowl has first choice of WAC teams, and taking the home team and/or an undefeated squad would be too alluring to pass up.