With all the argument surrounding the place of mid-major teams like Boise State and TCU in the BCS top five, SB Nation’s BCS Evolution took an in-depth look at the schedule strengths of the year’s best teams. We can obviously now discount Boise State from this group, but BCSE makes a numerical case for the Auburn Tigers, not the Oregon Ducks, to top the 2010 BCS standings -- even if they end the season with an unexpected loss:
BCS Rankings: Crunching The Numbers On Schedule Strength
Auburn: 0.831 (10.80 - 2.20) Alabama, LSU, South Carolina*2, Arkansas, Mississippi State
LSU: 0.856 (10.27 - 1.73) Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi State
Oregon: 0.914: 10.97 - 1.03 Stanford, Arizona, USC
Boise State: 0.928: 11.13 - 0.87 Virginia Tech, Nevada, Hawaii
TCU: 0.973: 11.67 - 0.33 Utah
The ranking is then actual - projected.
Auburn: +0.179
Oregon: +0.086
Boise State: +0.072
LSU: +0.053
TCU: +0.027
Even without Alabama and South Carolina Auburn would be ahead of Oregon, suggesting they should be #1 now. A one loss Auburn should still be the top team in the nation, with a score of 0.092. A one loss LSU should finish ahead of an undefeated TCU.
Strength of schedule winner:
AUBURN TIGERS
Will the Tigers’ Iron Bowl comeback make a better impression with voters than Oregon’s fireworks show against Arizona? We’ll find out Sunday.
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