We have come to the close of the college football season most care about, and, with apologies to the FCS fans watching their teams play elimination games, this is the best elimination week college football has. Either Oregon and Auburn will win this week’s games — for the Ducks, a renewal of the Civil War with Oregon State, and for Auburn, a clash with South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game — and stay on top of the college football rankings, or they could lose and fail to earn berths in the BCS National Championship Game by faltering at the last possible moment and dropping in the final BCS rankings.
Shaking Up The College Football Rankings: SEC Championship Game Presents One Final Hurdle For Auburn
The last hurdle for Auburn this season comes in the form of the SEC Championship Game, and revenge-minded South Carolina. And can Oregon State upset Oregon and end the Ducks’ undefeated run?
So, yeah, every week matters. This week matters most.
SEC Championship Game: No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 18 South Carolina, 3:30 p.m.
Auburn really should have fallen last week in Tuscaloosa. Not many teams survive 24-point deficits on the road against their hated rivals — playing only for pride after losing a chance to defend as national champions — but I suppose that just makes this Tigers team more special.
South Carolina’s no stranger to coughing up leads to Auburn: the Gamecocks led 20-14 at halftime and 27-21 entering the fourth quarter in their 35-27 loss to Auburn this September. Whether they can avoid doing that this week in Atlanta, win the SEC Championship Game, and seal 2010 as the most successful season in South Carolina history remains to be seen. But they have at least been there against this team before.
Chances of Upset: 30 percent. The rematch should mean South Carolina will have a better idea of how to attack Cam Newton, which is good, because Newton may have had his finest game this season against the Gamecocks, accounting for 334 yards and five touchdowns while misfiring on only five passes.
No. 1 Oregon at Oregon State, 3:30 p.m.
You know that the Ducks have been the most explosive offense in the nation this season, scoring 50.5 points per game and ranking in the top 10 in number of plays of more than 10+, 20+, 30+, 40+, 50+, 60+, and 70+ yards from scrimmage. (Yes, those are seven distinct categories.)
You might not know that Oregon State’s once-promising season has been on a downward trend for the better part of the last two months. Though the Beavers rolled USC two weeks ago and thumped Cal in October, they’re 2-4 since an impressive win at Arizona, and have losses to UCLA and Washington State in that span. And the shutout loss to Stanford last week was more lopsided than even its 38-0 score suggested.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. It’s never good to assume anything in rivalry games that players get atypically jacked up for, but it’s very hard to see the Beavers scoring with Oregon, despite the game being in Corvallis.
Big 12 Championship Game: No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Nebraska, 8:00 p.m.
The Sooners’ last three games are all wins: 45-7 over Texas Tech at home, 53-24 over Baylor at Waco, and 47-41 against Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
Meanwhile, in its last three weeks, Nebraska lost 9-6 to Texas A&M two weeks ago in a game better remembered for whatever it is that transpired between Bo Pelini and Taylor Martinez than anything the Huskers did (exception: draw penalties at an awe-inspiring rate, which was totally not connected to their fire-breathing ref-berating coach), and earned garden-variety blowout wins over Kansas and Colorado (combined record: 8-16).
So, yes, Oklahoma comes in hotter.
Chances of upset: 25 percent. Better fulfillment of destiny: Nebraska earning the Big 12’s automatic BCS berth in its last year of conference membership, or another very good but not great Oklahoma team topping the Big 12 and flaming out in a Fiesta Bowl?
ACC Championship Game: No. 12 Virginia Tech vs. No. 20 Florida State, 7:30 p.m.
Virginia Tech’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points since a 41-30 win over North Carolina State in early October, and the Hokies have won by double digits in all but one game of their 10-game win streak.
Florida State had gotten to 6-1 by beating Samford, BYU, Wake Forest, Virginia, Miami, and Boston College, then dropped two straight to North Carolina State and North Carolina. And now the Seminoles have “gotten hot” by beating Clemson, Maryland, and Florida.
One of these two teams will go to a BCS bowl. I’ll be surprised if it’s Florida State.
Chances of Upset: 10 percent. Tyrod Taylor hasn’t had an Inexplicable Spate of Bad Decisions Game in a while, so there’s that. But the Tech defense may do more than enough to make up for a few errors.All odds provided by OddsShark.
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