Six years ago, Jeff Tedford and the California Golden Bears were on the verge of their first Rose Bowl berth since 1959. Then Mack Brown lobbied for votes, Cal was less than impressive in their final victory over Southern Mississippi, and Texas slipped past Cal on the final week of the season to No. 4, gaining the final at-large bid and the tickets to Pasadena. It was a grievous blow for a program that has not regained its mojo since.
Inside The Pac-10: Jim Harbaugh And The Stanford Cardinal Should Not Be Denied A BCS Bowl
Jim Harbaugh and the Stanford Cardinal seem to be pretty secure with an 11-1 record, but they are still in relative danger of not being invited to a BCS bowl despite likely finishing in the top five in the rankings.
SIx years later, we're at the same juncture with Cal's arch-rivals. Like Cal, Jim Harbaugh and the Stanford Cardinal go into the final week of the season holding a decent lead for the final BCS at-large bid; the Rule of Four would ensure that Stanford will get picked if they stay where they are. Like Cal, the Cardinal are trailed by a Wisconsin Badgers team that could very well overtake them. Unlike 2004 though, there is no need for the Badgers to jump the Cardinal, because Wisconsin has the overall lead for the Big Ten and will win their automatic bid without needing to finish in the top five. Texas didn't have that luxury in 2004--Oklahoma would finish in the top two and go onto the BCS title game.
Nevertheless, the current top six rankings show a slim margin for Stanford to work with over Wisconsin. Keep in mind that Stanford’s hold on the human polls is tenuous at best--they already have Wisconsin ranked over Stanford, with Ohio State trailing by only a little in the Coaches Poll.
| BCS | Harris Poll | USA Today | Computer Rankings | ||||||||||||||
| RK | TEAM | AVG | PVS | RK | PTS | % | RK | PTS | % | AVG | A&H | RB | CM | KM | JS | PW | % |
| 1 | Auburn | .9779 | 2 | 2 | 2769 | .9716 | 2 | 1419 | .9620 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 |
| 2 | Oregon | .9777 | 1 | 1 | 2804 | .9839 | 1 | 1459 | .9892 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .960 |
| 3 | TCU | .9167 | 3 | 3 | 2621 | .9196 | 3 | 1343 | .9105 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | .920 |
| 4 | Stanford | .8413 | 6 | 5 | 2417 | .8481 | 5 | 1233 | .8359 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | .840 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | .8185 | 7 | 4 | 2441 | .8565 | 4 | 1282 | .8692 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 7 | .730 |
| 6 | Ohio State | .7632 | 8 | 6 | 2301 | .8074 | 6 | 1213 | .8224 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 10 | .660 |
Still, it seems silly to think the voters would come together and overwhelmingly promote two Big Ten teams that don’t need berths. Why should you worry about the remote chance of the Wisconsin Badgers jumping Stanford, given that they’re already in position to clinch the BCS Big Ten automatic bid?
Well, the problem isn’t so much on-the-field results. It’s the question of whether the team will generate the ticket sales necessary to make the game profitable for the bowl leaders. Jim Harbaugh talked about how disturbing the system really is.
- The relative weakness of the Pac-10’s overall standings does hurt Stanford. Only THREE teams in the conference are currently eligible for bowl bids: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. Arizona St. has to make an appeal because they were forced to play two FCS opponents. Washington could give Stanford a boost by winning the Apple Cup and becoming the fourth team to be bowl eligible (as could Oregon State if they shock Oregon), but it won’t be a huge boost. The Big Ten, by contrast, has eight eligible teams, thanks to their gratuitous scheduling of FCS pushovers. It makes Wisconsin look better. Don’t you love this system?Stanford has only beaten three teams with a winning record--USC (currently 7-5), Arizona (7-5) and Notre Dame (7-5). Teams like Cal might actually hurt Stanford’s bid by finishing with a 5-7 record. Their records make them look like the type of teams that the Cardinal should’ve rolled over.
- By contrast, Wisconsin has beaten four: Michigan (7-5), Northwestern (7-5, and Wisconsin rolled up 70 on them), Iowa (7-5) and the big upset of the Buckeyes (11-1).
- On-the-field results this weekend could make a big difference too, especially with the computers. The Arizona St. Sun Devils beating the Arizona Wildcats in last night’s Territorial Cup could hurt Stanford. Why? Because Wisconsin beat Arizona St., and Stanford’s victory over Arizona was one of their supposedly most impressive victories of the 2010 college football season. Stanford also beat Arizona State, but it was hardly their most impressive victory, a 17-13 winner.
- The nightmare scenario for the Cardinal? UCLA upsets USC this weekend, driving Stanford’s resume victories into the ditch. Oregon State upsets Oregon, which boosts Stanford’s credentials for a little bit, but also hurts them because their loss to the Ducks looks less impressive.
- Meanwhile, teams like UNLV and San Jose State beat Hawaii and Idaho respectively (both of those teams being Wisconsin opponents), and give the Badgers a little boost up.
We can all understand why Harbaugh is going out and aggressively stumping for Stanford. The Cardinal are tenuously holding onto that No. 4 spot, and plenty of the powers-that-be want nothing to do with them in their precious January bowls. They'd love to see them knocked down to fifth and no longer be obligated to take them. Harbaugh and Andrew Luck deserve better than this treatment. It wouldn't be right, and this Cal fan certainly hopes the system doesn't shaft them the way it did our sturdy Golden Bears over a half-decade ago.
And if they do get hosed? Well, at least both Cal and Stanford fans would be able to come together and rail against the BCS, and demand that playoff we’re all hoping for gains another important ally. Even rivals can agree that this system needs fixing. Teams like 2004 Cal and 2010 Stanford are never in danger of being excluded from receiving college football’s highest accolades.
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