The two biggest matchups in college football this week are prime-time in-conference showdowns between BCS championship contenders. But will Florida and Stanford provide us with upsets that send shockwaves through the college football polls, or will Alabama and Oregon silence the upset alert sirens?
Shaking Up The College Football Rankings: Alabama Looks Safe, But Oregon Not So Much
Will Florida and Stanford provide us with upsets that send shockwaves through the college football polls? We calculate the odds of that, and other upsets, going down on Saturday using methods that are shaky, at best.
And what about the other conferences? Is North Carolina State tough enough to stay unbeaten against Virginia Tech, or are the Hokies about to go from overrated to underrated to ACC frontrunner in a month? Can Michigan keep its unblemished record against surprising Indiana?
Last week, I wrote that “the Crimson Tide may have the most talented team in the nation.” This week, Urban Meyer is saying as much. His Gators have a tall order before them: heading to Tuscaloosa for a night game, avenging a heartbreaking loss in last year’s SEC Championship Game, and doing it all with a quarterback making just his fifth collegiate start. But the real problem for Florida is that their strengths don’t match up as well with Alabama’s weaknesses as Arkansas’ did.
Alabama's secondary got exposed and torched early against the Razorbacks, with inventive play-calling by Bobby Petrino springing Ronnie Wingo, Jarius Wright, and Greg Childs for big plays in the first half. Arkansas had four receptions of 30 or more yards in that half; Florida has two receptions of 30 or more yards this season, and just ten plays of 20 or more yards. The Gators rely on defense and the occasional big play from Jeff Demps to keep them in games, and they might have problems on both fronts. Alabama's fourth in the nation in yards per carry (the top three, Nebraska, Northern Illinois, and Michigan, all have running quarterbacks), and could well keep Demps out of the end zone merely by starving his offense of snaps. Demps' nagging foot injury won't help, either.
And the Gators' greatest strength on defense, the ballhawking that has produced an FBS-leading 12 interceptions, is likely mitigated by Greg McElroy's judicious passing (eight picks in 431 collegiate attempts), though McElroy did throw two interceptions against Arkansas.
Chances of Upset: 15 percent. There's just too much talent on offense for the Crimson Tide, and though Florida could get big plays to keep it close and should be excellent in the red zone thanks to Trey Burton's versatility, the better bet is a stampede led by Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson.
We should be making this swift correction on Oregon: the Ducks are not the earth-destroying juggernaut they appeared to be against New Mexico, Tennessee, and Portland State. They are more or less what we saw against Arizona State: a supremely effective and diverse offense team that can still struggle against good defenses, and a defense that will labor to get stops without forcing turnovers. That is a bad recipe against very good teams, and Stanford is certainly a very good team.
The Cardinal have a meticulous, proficient offense. Stanford is 26-for-26 in the red zone this season, has coughed up the ball just five times, has allowed one sack, and is balanced to a fault, gaining 893 rushing yards and 937 passing yards. This is a disciplined group, one that has as good a chance as any at surviving the insanity of the Autzen Zoo and clipping the Ducks’ wings.
Preventing a big run by LaMichael James would be a huge boost. James is averaging 7.8 yards per carry, but that total is inflated by four touchdown runs of 35 or more yards; remove them, and James is averaging a more pedestrian 4.48 yards per rush.
Chances of Upset: 45 percent. The Cardinal are probably the second-best team in the Pac-10, and certainly have at least the second-best offense in the conference. But the chances of Oregon losing at home are slim: the Ducks last lost at Autzen in September 2008, against Boise State, while juggling three quarterbacks thanks to multiple injuries.
No. 3 Boise State vs. New Mexico State, 8 p.m.
No.
Chances of Upset: Zero percent. It would be an upset if the Aggies kept it within 45.
No. 5 TCU at Colorado State, 2 p.m.
Also no.
Chances of Upset: Zero percent. The Rams might score. Might.
Oklahoma hasn't gotten a win in the Red River Rivalry since 2007, and the Sooners prevailed that year by limiting Texas' running game and forcing a young quarterback to throw. They should be able to do the former against Texas' feeble rushing attack (3.84 yards per carry, and just 2.70 yards per carry against BCS-conference defenses), and Garrett Gilbert's shown far less to this point than Colt McCoy had in '07.
Then again, Oklahoma hasn't been setting the world on fire, either. The Sooners trounced Florida State, but struggled with Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati, and Air Force is the only one of those three schools with a winning record. Texas has more talent than any of them, too. If the Longhorns can clear their offensive fog and patch a leaky rush defense that let Kevin Prince run wild (no, really, that happened), they could keep it close enough to break Oklahoma's heart again.
Chances of Upset: 25 percent. The Longhorns' best chance at clearing that fog is parting ways with offensive coordinator Greg Davis. He's still there. So.
No. 19 Michigan at Indiana, 3:30 p.m.
In case you needed a reason to hate early season rankings: we’re supposed to believe there are only 18 teams better than Michigan, whose defense has hemorrhaged yardage against an FCS school? Okay, then.
There's a growing sentiment that Indiana might not be terrible this year, thanks largely to a passing game triggered by Ben Chappell. That passing game couldn't produce a 20-point win against either Western Kentucky or Akron, teams that have a 24-game losing streak and a loss to Gardner-Webb, respectively, but, hey, it has given Chappell some gaudy numbers. And though the offense has kept it tidy, with just one turnover in three games, it's going to need to be nearly perfect to make up for the nation's 106th rush defense, which should be gouged at will by Denard Robinson.
Chances of Upset: 20 percent. Robinson is electric and awesome, if fragile, and he’s a good reason to like Michigan’s chances of scoring 30 points on any given Saturday. But the defense is flammable enough to give up 35 in the same fashion.
No. 21 North Carolina State vs. Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m.
Call me cynical, but the North Carolina State team that is ranked for the first time since Philip Rivers wore red hasn’t done all that much, right? Its 4-0 record came at the expense of: FCS Western Carolina; a UCF team that outgained it and lost by a touchdown despite committing five turnovers; a Cincinnati squad that appeared almost entirely unprepared to play on a Thursday night; and a Georgia Tech team that is bleeding points. The Wolfpack hasn’t taken the world’s easiest path to 4-0 (cough, Missouri, Kansas State, Northwestern, USC, cough, lozenge), but they also haven’t left a wake of destruction.
Virginia Tech, though, may be the nation’s most inscrutable team. The Hokies looked game against a Boise State team that appears to be for real, then spit the bit against James Madison. The defense did a number on Boston College, but the offense is still held captive by the Tyrod Taylor Random Outcome Generator, which should be at version 4.0 or something by now, yet remains stuck at 2.1.2, and handicapped without Ryan Williams, who may or may not play.
Chances of Upset: 40 percent. This largely depends on whether NC State gets Good Russell Wilson or Bad Russell Wilson. He's been Good Russell for two weeks now, but a reappearance of Bad Russell would not be shocking, given that Virginia Tech has 13 sacks, tied for eighth nationally.
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