The 2011 Heisman Race: What The Numbers Say

Trent Richardson, Alabama. Richardson plodded through the first two games of the season with almost no big plays of which to speak. But he broke out against North Texas, giving him the following impressive stat line: 50 carries for 315 yards (6.3 per carry), six receptions for 36 yards (6.0 per catch), eight total touchdowns. As long as Alabama keeps winning, Richardson will have a chance to overcome his slow start and finish in New York.

Landry Jones, Oklahoma. Since Ryan Broyles has been lacking explosiveness himself so far (10.1 yards per catch, one touchdown), Jones gets the nod for representing Oklahoma. He has completed 53 of 74 passes (71.6%) for 574 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions thus far.

Rueben Randle, LSU. Randle gets the nod over Spencer Ware (226 rushing yards, 4.6 per carry), Michael Ford (218, 5.4) and Jarrett Lee (444 passing yards, 68% completion rate, three touchdowns, one interception) because of his timeliness and explosiveness. He was the primary passing downs weapon in LSU's wins over Oregon and Northwestern State, and he was the primary weapon, period, versus Mississippi State. His 12 catches for 229 yards (19.1) and two touchdowns have come in handy, to say the least.

Kellen Moore, Boise State. He lost his top two targets to the pros, and he's completing 79 percent of his passes at 9.4 yards per pass thus far (efficiency rating: 187.6). The guy is a robot.

Russell Wilson, Wisconsin. Montee Ball (272 rushing yards, 5.7 per carry, seven touchdowns) almost gets the nod, but Wilson has been nearly flawless. He has completed 76 percent of his passes at 12.0 yards per pass attempt, and he has thrown eight touchdowns to one interception. Oh, and he's averaging 10.0 yards per carry in about four rushes per game. We'll see what happens when Wisconsin plays teams with a defensive pulse, but he has been all he was advertised to be so far.

Denard Robinson, Michigan. Michigan is propped a bit by both their preseason offensive projections and Notre Dame's defensive projections, but if you ignore his completion percentage (49.1 percent) for a moment, his stats are still damn impressive: 352 rushing yards (7.0 per carry, two touchdowns), 531 passing yards (9.7 per pass, six touchdowns, four interceptions). If the Wolverines were to win their Big Ten division (and therefore play 14 games), that's 1,640 rushing yards and 2,500 passing yards. That almost seems uninspiring for Shoelace, but it's still "DAMN!"-worthy.

LaMichael James, Oregon. His season got off to an uninspiring start against LSU, but after feasting on a couple of cupcakes, his numbers are back where they were expected to be (funny how that works when you're killing bad defenses): 325 rushing yards (7.7 per carry, three touchdowns), 144 receiving yards (16.0 per catch, one touchdown).

Michael Dyer, Auburn. The AU passing game has come and gone, but Dyer has been steady: 358 rushing yards (7.5 per carry), six touchdowns. Auburn is benefiting from preseason projections -- they will need to raise their game to stay on the "Best Offenses" list, but for now, here they are.

Orwin Smith, Georgia Tech. It was tempting to include Tevin Washington (637 passing yards, seven touchdowns, no interceptions; 72 rushing yards, two touchdowns) here, but instead I'm going to go with the guy who has set the table for Washington's extreme passing success. Smith, the only under-25 person in the country named Orwin, has a 95-yard run and a 67-yard reception (both against Kansas) on his record, and his stat line thus far has been rather ridiculous: 270 rushing yards (22.5 per carry), 151 receiving yards (37.8 per catch), five total touchdowns.

Silas Redd, Penn State. PSU's offense has been mostly hopeless thus far, but in rushing for 255 yards (5.1 per carry) and four touchdowns, Redd has given them a bit of hope despite a black hole at quarterback. (How does Penn State rank this highly in any offensive category? From what I can tell, here's the answer: they played Alabama and generated more than 50 yards. Since Alabama grades out like the '85 Bears thus far, PSU gets a lot of credit for that.)

Nick Foles, Arizona. With that defense and that offensive line, Foles' Wildcats probably aren't going to win many games this year, but he's going to wing it more than just about anybody else in the country. Even if UA only plays 12 games, he's on pace for 4,200 passing yards and almost 30 touchdowns, and he has yet to throw an interception despite spending quite a bit of time running for his life

Jake Heaps, BYU. That the Cougars rank this highly in terms of Passing S&P+ is what I am going to call an early-season quirk. Heaps is averaging 240 passing yards per game, but he's only completed 58 percent of his passes and has more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (three). I'm guessing BYU won't have much representation on this list soon.

Bryn Renner, North Carolina. A favorite of The Numerical, Renner has thrown just 13 incompletions in 70 pass attempts this year, good for an 81-percent completion rate. The problem, of course, is that four of his 13 incomplete passes were picked off. Still, he's thrown for 693 yards and averaged 9.9 yards per pass, and that's good.

Darron Thomas, Oregon. Forced to carry the Ducks' offense against LSU, Thomas has managed a strong passing line: 55-for-88, 741 yards (247.0 per game), 10 TD, 1 INT. He has completed passes to 14 different targets.

Taylor Martinez, Nebraska. Martinez is still incredibly hit-or-miss as a passer (490 yards, 48-percent completion rate, three touchdowns, two interceptions), but the guy can still run. He is averaging 128 yards per game, and he is generating a good portion of that on his own -- he's averaging 5.4 Highlight Yards per carry, by far the best in the country (second place: 4.3).

Ronnie Hillman, San Diego State. Man, do I like this guy. At just 190 pounds, he is averaging over 25 carries per game and 6.5 yards per carry. His offensive line is helping him out, but he still has the second-highest Highlight Yardage total in the country: 203.9.

John White IV, Utah. Jordan Wynn is the marquee name, but White is the star for the Utes. He's averaging 127 rushing yards per game at 6.2 per carry, and he's done a lot of that on his own -- he's averaging 3.1 Highlight Yards per carry.

Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. Hey, speaking of workhorses ... Lattimore's average line so far: 32 touches (29 rushes, three receptions), 200 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. Wow. We'll see if he can keep this up for 13-14 games. If he does, he's probably heading to New York in December.

Robert Griffin III, Baylor. In one and three-quarter games (Baylor's game versus Stephen F. Austin was called before the fourth quarter), Griffin has completed 41 of 49 passes (an 84-percent completion rate) for 624 yards (12.7 per pass), eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Plus, he has rushed for 116 yards, and he caught the biggest pass of the season, a 3rd-and-10 over-the-middle route against TCU. He is amazing. Send him to New York, America.

Seth Doege, Texas Tech. An 81-percent completion rate and a 195.4 passer rating? Impressive. Even when you take the time to realize that these numbers have come against Texas State and New Mexico.

Andrew Luck, Stanford. Maybe you've heard of this guy? My expectations for Luck are so high that I am almost underwhelmed by his 67-percent completion rate, 9.3-per-pass average and 173.4 passer rating. And ... he threw an interception (one, as compared to eight touchdowns)? Who does he think he is?

It is a pipe dream, of course -- if Ndamukong Suh couldn't win the Heisman in 2009, no defense-only player ever will -- but occasionally defenders receive some Heisman hype. The following five players are the strongest representatives from the teams ranked first through fifth in terms of Def. S&P+.

Dee Milliner, Alabama. He and Dre Kirkpatrick have shut down opposing pass defenses to an incredible degree. Milliner has broken up six passes while only having 7.5 tackles to make. Kirkpatrick has potentially been even better: five passes broken up, two forced fumbles, and only three tackles. Still, I'm enamored with Milliner right now, not that he has a chance to make it to New York without a few phenomenal kick and punt returns.

Tyrann Mathieu, LSU. I really wanted to go with one of the hosses in the new-and-phenomenal LSU defensive line, but there are too many of them. Instead, we'll go with the safety who leads the Tigers with 20.0 tackles, has made three tackles for loss, has broken up three passes, and both forced and recovered (for a touchdown) the game-turning fumble against Oregon. He's a punt returner to boot, but he's only averaging 3.5 yards per return at the moment, so we'll ignore that.

Frank Alexander, Oklahoma. The King of Disrespect has dominated in a variety of ways; in just two games, Alexander has 2.0 TFL/sacks, an interception, two passes broken up and a pair of quarterback hurries. Ronnell Lewis (4.0 TFL/sacks) and Tony Jefferson (3.0 TFL/sacks, 1 PBU) have a case to make, but I don't want to upset Alexander.

Robert Blanton, Notre Dame. The Irish better shore up that pass defense if they want to remain in the Top Five, but for now we'll applaud cornerback Blanton for what is, at the very least, a diverse stat line: 12.5 tackles, 4.0 TFL/sacks, two interceptions, three passes broken up.

Tyrone Crawford, Boise State. The Broncos once again have one of the best, if not the best, defensive line in college football, and Crawford has been the steadiest playmaker so far; 7.5 tackles and 3.5 TFL/sacks in two games.