2012 Mountain West Football Previews: Top Mid-Major League Prepares For Change

We’ll get this out of the way up front: this fall, Boise State is going to field its worst team since 2007. We can haggle about the number of starters the Broncos truly return, we can debate on the likely quality of the new young stars, and we can negotiate whether experience matters when BSU is projected to play just one Top 30 team and three Top 60 teams. But I am confident in saying that, after four years that saw them rank eighth, seventh, first and fourth in the F/+ rankings, the Broncos will not field a Top 10 team this fall.

Most publications and preseason polls seem to be following the same trend and sticking Boise in the No. 20-25 range. This makes a good amount of sense. I see Boise State basically going through what TCU experienced last year: the team will be mediocre in September, good in October and great in November. Unfortunately, the Broncos play four of their five best opponents before October 7. They are almost certainly going to lose more than one game for the first time since 2007, but they still might not lose more than two.

When you have a strong identity in place, and when you have mastered the art of underdog strategies, it is easy to almost begin to ignore the impact individual players or levels of experience have. A good percentage of college football fans could probably tell you that Air Force runs its own variation of the triple option on offense, and a certain percentage could also probably tell you that they operate out of an underdog-friendly 3-4 defense, placing an emphasis on speed and big-play prevention since they can’t compete from a size perspective.

So does identity trump the individual? We will find out in 2012. Jefferson, Warzeka and Kauth are all gone, but that’s not even the half of it. In all, Air Force must replace its top two quarterbacks, top running back, three top receivers, top two tight ends, four of its top six offensive linemen, four of its top six defensive linemen, three of its top five linebackers, its top two cornerbacks and its best safety. And for good measure, the Falcons must replace their top kickoff returner and punt returner too.

Long odds are nothing new for Nevada football.

Still, even for a program known for bucking odds, one had to assume that, when Nevada receiver Brandon Wimberly was shot in the abdomen outside of a Reno nightclub last June, odds of him returning to the football field were minimal. Hell, at first, the odds of him WALKING were far from fantastic. He was in intensive care for 10 days and in the hospital for three weeks. Even three months later, it felt a bit outlandish for him to be defiantly talking about playing again. But there he was, taking hits over the middle and bolting right back onto the first-string offense this spring.

An aura can last quite a while. Behind eventual No. 1 draft pick David Carr, Fresno State reached as high as eighth in the AP Poll in 2011. Its “take on all comers” approach to scheduling was both admirable and occasionally successful.

They beat eventual Big 12 champion Colorado, No. 10 Oregon State and No. 23 Wisconsin in back-to-back-to-back weeks in 2001.

As the coaching carousel reached the islands, word of Hawai’i’s decision to hire Norm Chow, replacing Greg McMackin as head coach, was received mostly with warmth. An offensive genius returns home? Perfect, right?

The 66-year-old Chow takes the reins in his hometown, the first Asian-American head coach at the FBS level, and by all means, his overall resume is damn near unimpeachable: 13 years as an FBS offensive coordinator, three more in the NFL, and 20 more years as an FBS assistant, a 2002 Broyles Award, the mentorship of three Heisman winners (Ty Detmer in 1990, Carson Palmer in 202 and Matt Leinart in 2004) and national title rings from BYU (1984) and USC (2003 and 2004, if 2004 still counts). For a while now, he has been the the most accomplished career assistant to never hold a head coaching position.

1. Bring in players who fit your system.

2. Experience growing pains while either your players are young or the last system’s players adapt to a new style (if, indeed, there is a new style to which to adapt).

At any given time, it is quite likely that a majority of the nation’s FBS fanbases are seeking change. Change at head coach, or quarterback, or athletic director. Change in conference or television contract. In your fantasy, change is almost always good. In reality, however, change is zero-sum. For every change that affects somebody positively, for someone else it brings nothing but pain. Just ask Colorado State.

In November, Thomas injured his knee. In January, he transferred to N.C. State.

In three seasons on the job, Coach A goes 6-7, 6-6 and 6-7. His teams rank 104th, 106th and 107th, respectively, in the F/+ rankings. He finishes Year Three with an impatient fanbase and enters Year Four in need of a solid season to stave off vultures.

In three seasons on the job, Coach B goes 7-6, 3-9 and 8-5. His teams rank 107th, 107th and 103rd, respectively, in the F/+ rankings. He is named his conference’s coach of the year in Year Three and is rumored for certain major-conference job openings in the offseason.

In the last 25 years, however, UNLV has finished .500 or better just four times. They have been to two bowls (the 1994 and 2000 Las Vegas Bowls, handily enough), and they have cast five different coaches by the wayside. The last coach to win there consistently (Harvey Hyde, 1982-85) did so with less than reputable characters (the Big West made UNLV forfeit their 1984 wins because of ineligible players, a series of Rebels got arrested through 1985, and … defensive end Marion “Suge” Knight, everybody!). Attempting to straighten up and fly right has not done UNLV any favors in the win column.

In the above Review-Journal article, Chancellor Jim Rogers said the following:

In the last four years, New Mexico has won seven games combined. Seven.

Long’s tenure began to fall apart in 2008 as the Lobos went 1-3 in one-possession games on their way to a 4-8 record. Long shocked everyone by resigning at the end of the season, saying “I want this program to be on top. I wanted it be on top as a player. I wanted it be on top as an assistant coach. And I wanted it to be on top as the head coach. I don’t see it happening with me as the head coach.” He took a slight jab at the school’s casual fanbase (“If you want to compete with the big boys, you’ve got to act like it.”), then headed west to become Brady Hoke’s defensive coordinator at San Diego State.