2012 Big 12 Football Previews: Change And Classic Powers

It happened to Barry Switzer, too, right around the same point in his regime. Oklahoma was ranked second in the 1981 preseason polls and finished 20th. They started ninth in 1982 and finished 16th. They started second in 1983 and finished 8-4 and unranked. Granted, the series of underachievement didn’t last very long, but it was stark. After losing a combined eight games in his first eight years as Oklahoma’s head coach, Switzer lost 12 from 1981-83. The coaching staff got shuffled around, the offense suffered from a bit of an identity crisis (Wishbone? I-formation? And what happens now that we’ve signed Troy Aikman?), all-world recruit Marcus Dupree failed to pan out, the Sooners ceded control of the Big 8 to Nebraska, lost two of three to Texas … it was a bit of a mess in Soonerland.

At least, that’s what Bob Stoops hopes. Stoops has built one of the nation’s most consistently solid programs in Norman, winning at least 10 games in 10 of 12 seasons, winning seven conference titles, and attending eight BCS bowls. But since coming out of relative nowhere to win the 2000 national title, Stoops’ Sooners have finished lower in the postseason polls than in the preseason polls in nine of 11 seasons. Granted, that is always going to be a likely outcome when you start so high in the polls -- OU has begun each of the last 11 seasons in the top 10 and three of the last four in the top four -- but that probably doesn’t quell the feeling of disappointment brewing in Norman right now. After making three BCS title game appearances in five years from 2000-04 (the last two of which ALSO came with feelings of disappointment as a banged-up Jason White failed to move the ball against LSU in 2003, and the Sooners got absolutely pasted by USC in 2004), the Sooners have been back to the promised land just once since, coming up two goal line stands short of the title against Florida in 2008.

For a few years now, talking up TCU has been a pet project of mine. Their defense ranked first in the country in Def. F/+ in 2008*, I would mention. The Horned Frogs ranked in the F/+ Top 6 for three straight years (2008-10), I would also note. They went 12-2 against BCS conference teams from 2005-10 (they beat Oklahoma in Norman in 2006 and Clemson at Clemson in 2009), I would be sure to point out. Remember how everybody thought a smoking hot Wisconsin team would be a favorite if there were a college football playoff in 2010? Yeah, TCU beat them, too, in the Rose Bowl. If you’d have asked me who should be playing in the BCS title game against Auburn in 2010 -- 12-0 Oregon or 12-0 TCU -- I’d have crafted a very convincing (to me, anyway) argument that it should be TCU.

The school of Sammy Baugh, Davey O’Brien, Dutch Meyer, Bob Lilly and Dan Jenkins has been the nation’s preeminent mid-major college football program not named Boise State in recent years, and the Horned Frogs can even make a rather convincing case that they have been better than Boise State. Even last year, when forced to replace a wealth of defensive difference-makers, the Horned Frogs limped around on defense for a month or so, then went right back to dominating. They became the first team to win at Boise State since Washington State did it in early-September 2001. The next conference game they lose will be their first since 2008. Gary Patterson has built a program as incredible in its consistency as in its outstanding defensive play. And beginning in 2009, TCU even figured out how to play some excellent offense.

Top Five Schools According To Total Revenue (2006-11)

1. Texas

2. Ohio State

3. Alabama

4. Florida

5. Michigan

Their starting running back might be either of two five-star backs. Two other four-star seniors might get a few carries here and there. Their top two returning wideouts were both high four-star recruits. Two more reported this month. They have two more at tight end. Their two-deep on the offensive line consists of one five-star recruit and either eight or nine four-stars. Three more four-star freshmen reported this month.

Can you be both completely out of place and right where you belong at the same time?

During the conference realignment saga of the past couple of years -- something that has been quiet over the last couple of months, which only means it is about ready to strike again -- the specter of geographic silliness has been worse than the reality. Baylor and Washington State didn’t end up in the same conference, for instance. Texas isn’t joining Purdue’s conference. Et cetera. (As with politics, this is usually how it works, of course. The extreme examples serve as anchors to make us appreciate the lack of extremism in the actual moves. Take, for instance, the Airline Conference.)

Thanks to some tremendous coaching from new defensive coordinator Bill Young (OSU improved from 85th to 20th in Def. F/+), the ‘Pokes at least managed to win nine games for the second straight year, even if they didn’t match the preseason hype. But the season as a whole still felt like a bit of a missed opportunity. Robinson and Bryant would leave for the pros the next season, and OSU couldn’t be guaranteed the same level of star power in the replacements.

Over the next two seasons, Weeden would throw for 9,004 yards and 71 touchdowns (Alex Cate threw for 183 yards as a backup at Central Washington University), Blackmon caught 232 passes and won two Biletnikoff Awards (Anyiam caught 38 passes), and Gundy’s ‘Pokes went 23-3 and won the 2011 Big 12 title. After ranking 23rd and 38th in F/+ in 2008-09, OSU improved to 12th and third in 2010-11.

What is the value of experience? Because of all the things Texas Tech head coach Tommy Tuberville may be lacking after two years in Lubbock -- positive momentum, defensive continuity, wins -- he’s now got experience in his corner.

From a team that got blown out by an average of 39.3 points in its final three home games, he returns nine offensive starters and nine defensive starters (or, potentially, 10, depending on how and who you count). But it even goes beyond that. He returns his starting quarterback (which tends to mean a little more than other positions), three of his top four running backs (though two are at less than 100 percent after knee injuries in 2011), five of his top seven receivers, four offensive linemen with starting experience, six of his top eight defensive linemen (plus an interesting junior college transfer), four of his top five linebackers (plus an interesting junior college transfer), and seven of his top nine defensive backs (plus three interesting junior college transfers).

In 1967, the University of Houston played one of the strangest schedules of all-time. Bill Yeoman’s Cougars opened the season by whipping pre-Bowden Florida State, 33-13, then heading to East Lansing and absolutely smoking No. 3 Michigan State, 37-7. The win moved them from unranked to third in the country. (There was only a Top 10 at this time, so while that’s an impressive jump, it probably isn’t as impressive as you first thought it was.) The next week, they throttled Wake Forest by 44 points and moved to No. 2. They promptly lost at home to unranked N.C. State, 16-6. Two weeks later, they lost at Ole Miss and found themselves unranked again. No worries: they beat No. 5 Georgia, 15-14, and moved back into the Top 10 … and then lost at Tulsa to wrap up the regular season. Unranked and without a conference, the Cougars did not end up in a bowl game.

Houston beat two top-five teams and lost three games to unranked opponents. In other words, they did what Paul Rhoads seems to do at Iowa State every damn season.