College Football Betting 2012: Odds, Lines, Picks

I pick up my bowl picks with the New Year’s Day bowl games. Perhaps a new year will bring with it better gambling luck. The bad beat in the Duke-Cincinnati game was unreal. I held Duke +7.5, but the Blue Devils were about to take the lead with under four minutes, fumbled, allowed a 70+ yard TD pass, and then threw a pick-six to blow the cover.

Northwestern (PK) at Mississippi State, Over 52. Ah, the Gator Bowl. Mississippi State is an eight-win SEC team. Yet I am taking Northwestern? Let me explain. Name Mississippi State’s best win. How about its second-best win? Tennessee? Arkansas? Auburn? Middle Tennessee State? Troy? Kentucky? South Alabama? The bottom line is that Northwestern is considerably better than every team Mississippi State beat this season. Plus, the Bulldogs lost four of five games down the stretch by an average margin of more than three touchdowns. Granted, the teams that did that to Mississippi State are considerably better than Northwestern. Does Mississippi State really want to be in this game?

BYU -3 at San Diego State: The Aztecs’ run game has been very impressive this year... until one looks at the competition the Aztecs have faced. BYU’s offense is nothing special, but its defense is the truly elite unit in this game, and the reasonable price of -3 is too short to pass up.

East Carolina at Louisiana Lafayette -4.5 and Over 65: Lafayette is considerably better than East Carolina, and neither team plays much defense. Lafayette in a track meet, 45-30.

This week’s card doesn’t offer as many choices as previous weeks, but there should be some value found.

Nebraska at Wisconsin +3: I believe the wrong team is favored here. Wisconsin’s game against Penn State didn’t have any division implications, and I look for Wisconsin to win this rematch as the Badgers have improved throughout the season.

This week’s rivalry games offer some opportunity to bring in the cash.

Michigan at Ohio State Under 55: Both of these offenses have been humming good at points of the season, but I have a feeling this game is played more conservatively. Both defenses have improved as the season has developed.

UNC at UVA Over 61.5: Carolina doesn’t play defense. Virginia’s offense is improving. UNC’s offense is very good, and Virginia’s defense has struggled against teams that spread them out.

Stanford +21 at Oregon: Stanford plays very good defense, and its 3-4 alignment is something that has given Oregon’s elite offense some trouble before (see Cal) because of the different blocking angles needed to get the linebackers sealed off. Meanwhile, Stanford’s offense has steadily risen from awful to OK in the last month, thanks to improved QB play. It’ll try to slow the game down against a banged up Oregon defense.

Florida State at Virginia Tech Under 51.5 points: Florida State’s offense has not been very good on the road (averaging about 24 points in three games), while Virginia Tech’s offense hasn’t been good anywhere. Both of these defenses will be a lot better than any defense these two offenses have seen this season.

Pitt at UConn +3: The Huskies’ defense is very aggressive, and I am not sure that Pitt will be focused this week in practice coming off the devastating triple-overtime loss to Notre Dame.

All opening lines from OddsShark.com

Speaking of the Hurricanes, Miami is favored by three at Virginia in a game that will go a long way toward deciding the Coastal Division championship. Miami currently leads with a 4-2 ACC record.

College football’s Week 10 is a bit of a scary weekend for me, because I don’t love many of these wagers, but I had a high number that reached the minimum threshold to warrant a bet.

EMU at Ohio Under 57.5 points: Both of these squads play better defense than offense.

This line is now Oregon -7 thanks to early money coming in on the Ducks.

The Wildcats have been bet up to an 8-point favorite.

Cincinnati +3.5 at Louisville: I wagered against Cincinnati last week with Toledo and won. This week, I expect Cincy’s focus to return. Louisville is not an elite team and its home field is not all that significant.

Duke at Florida State -28: The Seminoles don’t have a lookahead here with the bye week looming, and there shouldn’t be any hangover from an effort against Miami that included five fumbles. Duke is improved, but is also quite fortunate to be 6-2, which creates some value.

This week the goal is to avoid bad beats like Steve Spurrier inexplicably going for (and getting) a touchdown on fourth down when he needs two scores and should have kicked a field goal, thus killing my LSU -2.5 wager. Ditto North Carolina failing to cover -7 due to missed field goals and interceptions in the red zone after driving up and down the field on Miami.

Oregon -8 at Arizona State: I trust this Oregon team. I trust Chip Kelly. I trust the Ducks defense. I don’t think Arizona State is a bad football team by any stretch of the imagination, and have wagered on them several times this season, but I believe Oregon is in another class here.

This week the card is somewhat smaller.

South Carolina at LSU (-2.5): This is a good spot to take LSU at home, because the public is overreacting to both the South Carolina win and the LSU loss. Before last weekend this line projected at a touchdown or more, and the quality of these teams has not shifted as much as this line suggests in just a week. Also, South Carolina has not been a great road team under Steve Spurrier.

I’m passing on the Southern Cal at Utah game Thursday, because I refuse to take USC in this spot but don’t think I can back Utah with the Utes’ inability to score points.

But I will get things started on Friday with Utah State +7 at BYU. BYU has plenty of trouble scoring and Utah State has decent athletes and a lot of reason to be motivated in this one.

With a big week of games ahead, the ol’ gambling podcast is back to break it all down.

Drew Collins from Chuckoliver.net, Vegas bookmaker Todd Fuhrman and Adam Kramer of KegsnEggs have returned to discussed what should be a wonderful weekend of games.

I like the card for Week 5 a whole lot, so let’s get to it.

Stanford at Washington +7: Stanford is overvalued after a win over USC. Washington isn’t anything special, but I am not convinced Stanford will blow out the Huskies, because the Cardinal just don’t score all that much.

Drew Collins from Chuckoliver.net, Adam Kramer of Kegs n Eggs, Vegas bookmaker Todd Fuhrman and myself have returned for another week of college football. We’re talkin’ about gamblin’ because, well, who doesn’t love gamblin’?

Week 5 doesn’t jump off the page when it comes to matchups, but we do hit on the “big” games and we also make some Big Ten jokes along the way. If the widget below doesn’t show up, check out the podcast here.

Week 4 features quite a few marquee games. Some offer betting value. Others do not.

Arizona at Oregon -23: Oregon’s defense has seen everything Oregon can do for years in practice since the Ducks are also a spread team. A team in Year 1 of the spread option takes its show on the road to open up conference play against a much more talented and experienced team. I’ll take Oregon.

A winning Week 2 (7-6, +$40) brings the season record to 13-13 (-$130).

Week 3 offers a strong lot of games, and unlike Week 2, these are actually popular games on which you’ll want to wager. For entertainment purposes only, of course.

Drew Collins is joined by SB Nation’s National Gambling Columnist Bud Elliott, Lead Writer for Bleacher Report Adam Kramer and Las Vegas Bookmaker Todd Fuhrman to describe all the action that unfolded in Week 1 and hit on all the games in Week 2.

Can Georgia overcome suspensions, injuries, and a hostile crowd against Missouri? Can Missouri exploit a depleted Georgia secondary if the Bulldogs are able to stop the Tigers’ run game?

My season record for college football gambling picks sits at 6-7 (46 percent) -$170 after Week 1. Alabama, BYU, Clemson, Northern Illinois, Marshall and Georgia Tech were definitely the correct sides. However SMU, Tulsa (which lost its star receiver during the game to an ACL tear), Southern Miss/Nebraska Under, Miami/BC Under and FIU were flat wrong wagers. Frustratingly, Minnesota and Michigan State controlled their games and outgained UNLV and Boise, respectively, by a large margin, but failed to cover due to some horrendous turnovers. Hard luck losses and lucky wins tend to even out over the course of enough plays, and there is little reason to worry.

Week 2 has a distinct lack of marquee games on the slate, so let’s get to the wagers.

We made it! College football season is here. You’ve upped your 401k contribution reloaded your various offshore betting accounts. Now you need the picks. We’ve got you covered. With a caveat -- with these lines having existed now for more than a month, much of the value has been sucked out of some of the higher profile games by the professional gamblers. The plays I’m giving you today are all fresh from this week.

For more on Tide football, visit Alabama blog Roll Bama Roll, plus SEC blog Team Speed Kills. For more on Wolverines football, visit Michigan blog Maize ‘n’ Brew, plus Big Ten blog Off Tackle Empire and SB Nation Detroit.

For once, the ACC is likely to be defined by stability. For a league sporting a 2-13 record in BCS games and a reputation on par with that of the Big East in the minds of some, this is a good thing. 11 of 12 teams did not undergo a coaching change (only North Carolina did). And 10 of 12 teams return their starting quarterback, with Maryland joining Miami after C.J. Brown’s recent ACL tear.

The ACC has always been known to gamblers as a league with a lot of parity. In Vegas, it carries a reputation for upsets and uncertainty. Could that change in 2012? We’ll see.

The NCAA-impacted situations at Penn State and Ohio State and the difficulty in projecting Michigan, arguably 2011’s luckiest college football team, make handicapping the Big Ten’s season win totals quite difficult. Here are my picks.

Indiana Under Wins 3.5 (+160), 5Dimes: Indiana must replace two of its top four receivers, but they were not difference makers. The losses at the tackle spots are more significant, as Indiana must replace both, and both were multi-year starters. The Hoosiers also suffer heavy losses at linebacker. Ultimately, though, this team simply lacks talent. The Hoosiers should be improved in their second year under Kevin Wilson, but getting plus money that the improvement will be from one win in 2011 to two or three in 2012, not four or more, is too good to pass up.

In addition to spearheading SB Nation’s college football recruiting coverage, I’m also the college football betting columnist. In this space, I’ll discuss the big games of the week and offer some analysis on the hidden gems, too. And I’ll track my record, win or lose.

It’s extremely tough to come out in the black betting college football, a high-variance endeavor to begin with, without using a lot of techniques that don’t make for a good column. From time to time, I might discuss an advanced technique or two, but you won’t find them in the weekly column.