NFL Week 4 spread picks, including Chiefs-Ravens

Early in the third quarter of a Week 2 game between the Carolina Panthers and the Arizona Cardinals, Dave Canales’ crew trailed 27-3.

But the Panthers roared back with 19 unanswered points to cut Arizona’s advantage to 27-22, and after recovering an onside kick late in the game, Carolina had a chance to win in the closing seconds. While the effort fell short, it was a spark.

And last week, the Panthers rolled 30-0 over the Atlanta Falcons.

Is something similar happening here with our weekly picks against the spread?

After going 1-2 in both Week 1 and Week 2, true signs of life appeared last week as we went 2-1 with our selections. With the Kansas City Chiefs covering the 5.5-point spread against the New York Giants, and the underdog Detroit Lions winning outright against the Baltimore Ravens, we improved to 4-5 on the season.

It’s not much, but it’s honest work.

Let’s get to this week’s picks. As always, the lines are taken from FanDuel.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel line: Seattle -1.5
Spread pick: Seattle -1.5

Normally, I tend to shy away from Thursday night games. Strange things happen in those, such as the Buffalo Bills not covering the spread just a week ago in their win over the Miami Dolphins.

But consider what we just discussed regarding the Arizona Cardinals. Up 27-3 at home to the Carolina Panthers, they needed a fourth-down stand late in the game to survive by a final score of 27-22.

They survived in Week 1 by a touchdown against the 0-3 New Orleans Saints. They are coming off a loss to the depleted, Mac Jones-led San Francisco 49ers. Now they face Sam Darnold and a Seattle Seahawks team that rolled over those same Saints a week ago.

Give me the Seahawks.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel line: Green Bay -6.5
Spread pick: Dallas +6.5

The return of Micah Parsons to Dallas, wearing a Packers uniform, is going to be perhaps the storyline this Sunday.

That has generated speculation about the numbers Parsons will put up, and during my weekly radio spot with the Bill Michaels Show in Wisconsin on Wednesday, the idea of 2.5 sacks as the over/under for Parsons was discussed ...

But while the Packers defense is going to cause problems for the Cowboys on Sunday, Green Bay has some concerns of their own. In their loss to the Cleveland Browns, Jordan Love was sacked five times, with all of those coming on just a four-man rush from Cleveland. Green Bay’s banged-up offensive line is something to watch on Sunday, and while the Cowboys might not have a player like Myles Garrett, they’ll have opportunities to get to Love.

That should keep this game close. I expect Green Bay to win, but I think Dallas can cover.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel line: Baltimore -1.5
Spread pick: Baltimore -1.5

When the NFL schedule makers slotted this game in for Week 4, they likely believed the winner would emerge as the favorite to win the conference.

Instead, the winner will get to .500, and the loser will drop to 1-3 and be fighting for their playoff lives in the weeks ahead.

Interestingly enough, this game might be determined on the ground. The Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs each have a porous run game through three weeks. Baltimore has given up an Expected Points Added per Rush of 0.141 this season, second-worst in the league.

Kansas City has given up an EPA/Rush of 0.083 this year, fourth-worst in the league.

The difference? Baltimore’s rushing attack is better than Kansas City’s right now.

Last week: 2-1-0
Season record: 4-5-0