NFL playoff picture: What Texans win over Colts means in Week 13

How did Texans-Colts impact the AFC playoff race?

Updated Dec 1, 2025, 12:26 AM UTC

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Mark Schofield is a former college quarterback and attorney covering the NFL and F1.

One of the pivotal games from Week 12 kicked off in the early slate on Sunday, as the Indianapolis Colts hosted the Houston Texans in a critical game in the AFC South.

And with the Texans’ 20- 16 win over the Colts the race in the AFC South — as well as the conference overall — just got tighter.

Houston moved to 7-5 with the victory, and the Texans are now just one game the Colts (8-4). The win was not enough to push Houston into a playoff spot yet, but by the end of the night the Texans could be the No. 7 seed in the AFC. If the Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Buffalo Bills in the late-afternoon window, Buffalo would fall out of a playoff spot, and the Texans would slide into the No. 7 spot.

Looking at the big picture, not only are the Texans now 4-1 in AFC South play, they are 6-2 in AFC play. That could be critical for tiebreakers later this season. The Texans play the Chiefs next week, followed by games against Arizona, Las Vegas, the Chargers, and the Colts to close out the season. Houston split their season series with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

As for the Colts, after their hot start Indianapolis is now in danger of falling out of first place in the AFC South. While the Colts were losing to Houston, the Jaguars were cruising against the Tennessee Titans. If Jacksonville holds on and wins, that would put both the Colts and the Jaguars at 8-4 overall, and 2-1 in the division. Since they have yet to play each other, and they have matching division records, Jacksonville has a tiebreaker advantage based on common opponents, putting them into the division lead right now as the No. 3 seed in the AFC.

The Colts still have to play the Jaguars twice, including one game next week, as well as the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Texans again in Week 18.

Update: With Jacksonville’s win, the Jaguars are now in first place in the AFC South.

Update 2: Things have gotten even worse for the Colts, who are now the No. 6 team in the AFC thanks to wins from the Chargers and the Bills. All three teams have matching 8-4 records, and the Chargers slot in as the No. 5 team thanks to having the best conference record (7-2 for Los Angeles, 6-3 for Indianapolis, and 5-3 for Buffalo).

The Colts slide in at No. 6, while the Bills are now at No. 7.