Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season was not only pivotal for the playoff race.
NFL Draft 2026: The race for the No. 1 pick comes into focus
Week 16 crystallized the chase for the No. 1 pick, and next week’s Raiders-Giants game could be decisive
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Mark Schofield is a former college quarterback and attorney covering the NFL and F1.
But it was also pivotal in the chase for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Tennessee Titans improved to 3-12 on the season with their win over the Kansas City Chiefs, but that dropped them down the order for next spring. Right now, two teams are tied with 2-13 records, and as the schedule makers would have it, those teams meet in Week 17.
Here is the current state of play in the race for the first-overall selection.
2026 NFL Draft order
As things stand right now, here is the order for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft:
Pick | Team | Record | Winning % | SOS | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 2-13 | .133 | .530 | -- |
| 2 | Las Vegas Raiders | 2-13 | .133 | .545 | -- |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 3-12 | .200 | .490 | 1.0 |
| 4 | New York Jets | 3-12 | .200 | .539 | 1.0 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-12 | .200 | .575 | 1.0 |
| 6 | Tennessee Titans | 3-12 | .200 | .575 | 1.0 |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | 4-11 | .267 | .500 | 2.0 |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | 5-10 | .333 | .496 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-10 | .333 | .516 | 3.0 |
| 10 | Miami Dolphins | 6-9 | .400 | .492 | 4.0 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams (via ATL) | 6-9 | .400 | .502 | 4.0 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6-9 | .400 | .514 | 4.0 |
| 13 | Dallas Cowboys | 6-8-1 | .433 | .441 | 4.5 |
| 14 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-8 | .467 | .504 | 5.0 |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | 7-8 | .467 | .520 | 5.0 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-8 | .500 | .528 | 5.0 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 8-7 | .533 | .492 | 6.0 |
| 18 | New York Jets (via IND) | 8-6 | .571 | .535 | 6.5 |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 8-7 | .533 | .516 | 6.0 |
| 20 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-6 | .600 | .506 | 7.0 |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys (via GB) | 9-5-1 | .633 | .476 | 7.5 |
| 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10-5 | .667 | .473 | 8.0 |
| 23 | Houston Texans | 10-5 | .667 | .473 | 8.0 |
| 24 | Buffalo Bills | 11-4 | .733 | .463 | 9.0 |
| 25 | San Francisco 49ers | 10-4 | .714 | .496 | 8.5 |
| 26 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11-4 | .733 | .459 | 9.0 |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns (via JAX) | 11-4 | .733 | .496 | 9.0 |
| 28 | Los Angeles Rams (via ATL) | 11-4 | .733 | .528 | 9.0 |
| 29 | Chicago Bears | 11-4 | .733 | .443 | 9.0 |
| 30 | New England Patriots | 11-3 | .733 | .380 | 9.5 |
| 31 | Denver Broncos | 12-3 | .800 | .433 | 10.0 |
| 32 | Seattle Seahawks | 12-3 | .800 | .500 | 10.0 |
The Raiders and the Giants remain tied at the top, with matching 2-13 records. But the Giants are in the No. 1 spot for now, with a weaker Strength of Schedule. Strength of Schedule is the first tiebreaker when it comes to determining NFL Draft order. (Note: Strength of Schedule includes all 17 teams on the schedule, not just the 15 teams played to date.)
With the Titans defeating the Chiefs, Tennessee now drops to No. 6. The Titans are one of four teams with a 3-12 record, but their .575 Strength of Schedule drops them behind the Browns (.492) and the Jets (.538). With Arizona and Tennessee having matching Strength of Schedule marks, the next tiebreaker is head-to-head, meaning Tennessee’s wild win over Arizona gives the Cardinals the better pick, and drops Tennessee down to No. 6.
What to watch in Week 17
Week 17 brings us the No. 1 Pick Bowl.
The Giants travel west to take on the Raiders on Sunday afternoon, and the loser of that game will move into the driver’s seat for the first-overall selection in the 2026 NFL Draft. For the Raiders, that would give them the keys to picking a quarterback at the top of the draft, perhaps Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or Oregon’s Dante Moore, should both quarterbacks enter the 2026 NFL Draft.
However, the Giants would be in position to trade that pick in exchange for a massive haul of picks, as New York is not expected to be in the quarterback market next offseason given what Jaxson Dart has shown this year.
Here are the critical games to watch in Week 17 in the race for the No. 1 pick (all games on Sunday):
- Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
- New England Patriots (11-3) at New York Jets (3-12)
- New York Giants (2-13) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
If you are looking ahead, the Giants host the Cowboys in Week 18 while the Raiders host the Chiefs.
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