NFL Draft 2026: What Giants’ win over Raiders means for the No. 1 pick

Game update (Sunday evening): With the Giants winning, the Raiders are now in the driver’s seat to secure the No. 1 pick in Week 18.
Game update (Sunday afternoon): The Giants are now closer to securing the No. 1 pick here in Week 17. With the Browns defeating the Steelers, and both the Buccaneers and Colts losing, New York will clinch the No. 1 pick with a loss to the Raiders.

Call it the Fernando Mendoza Bowl.

While teams are jockeying for division titles and playoff seeding here in Week 17, the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft reaches a critical moment this weekend. The New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders are squaring off Sunday at Allegiant Stadium, and with both teams having matching 2-13 records, the loser of this game will be in prime position to secure the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

And theoretically, one of those teams could clinch the first-overall selection this weekend.

Here is what Sunday’s game between the Raiders and the Giants means for the No. 1 pick next spring.

If the 2026 NFL Draft began today, the Raiders would have the No. 2 pick, right behind the Giants. While the teams have matching records, New York would get the top pick thanks to an easier schedule. Under NFL rules, when teams have matching records, the team with the easier schedule gets the better pick. The Giants have a Strength of Schedule of .530, while the Raiders have a Strength of Schedule of .542.

But a loss to the Giants would drop Las Vegas to 2-14, and improve New York’s record to 3-13. While that would not be enough for the Raiders to clinch the top pick, they would have a one-game advantage in the race for the No. 1 pick with one week remaining. The Giants could still catch them if New York loses in Week 18 and the Raiders win, thanks to the Strength of Schedule advantage the Giants have in this race.

A team to watch is the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are currently 3-12, but have a Strength of Schedule mark of .492. That could give the Browns a big advantage if they finish tied with the Raiders and/or the Giants.

While the Raiders cannot lock up the No. 1 pick this weekend, the Giants can.

According to NFL Playoff Scenarios, when Week 17 began there were 11 different ways the Giants could clinch the No. 1 pick this week. Many of those scenarios involved a handful of teams losing a combined number of games.

With results from Saturday, those 11 pathways have narrowed to just three.

The easiest way for the Giants to clinch the No. 1 seed? A loss to the Raiders, coupled with a New York Jets win or tie against the New England Patriots, and a Browns win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That would clinch the No. 1 pick for the Giants with one week remaining in the season.

New York can also clinch the No. 1 pick with a loss to the Raiders, a Browns win or tie against the Steelers, and a Philadelphia Eagles tie against the Buffalo Bills. Alternatively, the Giants can clinch the No. 1 pick with a loss to the Raiders, a Browns win or tie against the Steelers, and a combined 1.5 losses from these teams: Tampa Bay, Arizona, Seattle, the Los Angeles Rams, and the Indianapolis Colts. Those teams losing will help lower New York’s Strength of Schedule mark.

Here is the current Top Ten for the 2026 NFL Draft, before the games begin Sunday:

* - Team has already played in Week 17