Sean Payton’s 4th down decision cost Broncos’ points they needed in AFC Championship

In Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, points proved tough to come by. A combination of two stout defenses, Denver starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham, Drake Maye looking to avoid turnovers at all costs, and brutal weather that swept snow and wind across the field in the second half, all contributed to a 10-7 final score in New England’s favor.

Three points left as the difference between a potential spot in Super Bowl LX, and a spot on the couch watching the game from home.

That difference brings a decision from Sean Payton from the first half into critical focus. Denver opened the scoring in the first quarter, when Stidham connected with Courtland Sutton from six yards out to stake the Broncos to an early 7-0 lead. The big play on that drive was a long completion from Stidham to Marvin Mims on 3rd and 10, as the receiver got behind standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Late in the first quarter Denver started another drive, a possession that lasted deep into the second quarter. With New England failing to get anything going on offense to that point, the Broncos drove into the Patriots’ red zone where they eventually faced a 4th-and-1 situation.

And Payton faced the first real big decision of the game.

Denver had momentum, and facing a 4th down at the New England 14-yard line, a chip shot field goal would have given them a ten-point lead.

But the head coach wanted more.

“I just felt like, man, we had momentum, to get up 14 [points], felt like we had a good call,” Payton said. “I think the feeling was, man, let’s be aggressive. You know, to get up 14, I was just watching the way our defense was playing.”

Analytics were … split. The “Fourth Down Bot” built by Ben Baldwin gave the slight edge to the field goal:

Meanwhile Seth Walder, ESPN’s NFL Analyst, had a different view:

Payton kept his offense on the field, and called for a running play. Nickel Duo. “A sub-run versus a sub-front” he said after the game. It was Denver’s top short-yardage run call.

But he wanted more time to think it over, and called a timeout.

During the timeout he changed his mind, opting for Denver’s top short-yardage passing play. This was Slipper Naked, a bootleg design that would roll Stidham out to the right, ideal against man coverage, which is what the Patriots had shown when they lined up initially on fourth down.

“I wanted 14-0,” Payton later told ESPN’s Seth Wickersham.

However, the Patriots had a trick up their sleeve.

Instead of playing man coverage, New England dropped into zone behind a six-man front, with defenders sitting in coverage with their eyes on Stidham. That included safety Craig Woodson in the flat. Not only that but a pair of New England linemen — Milton Williams and Cory Durden — slanted through the Denver offensive line and put Stidham under immediate pressure.

The play had no chance:

Instead of a first down — or a ten-point lead with a field goal — New England had the football.

Speaking after the game, Payton talked about regrets, and second thoughts.

“There’s always regrets,” Payton said. “I felt like here we are fourth-and-1, close enough and it’s also a call you make based on the team you’re playing and what you’re watching on the other side of the ball. So, yeah, there’ll always be second thoughts.”

It is easy to poke holes in the decision to go for it on fourth down, given the benefit of hindsight. Given the weather that rolled in during the second half, given that you were playing with a backup quarterback, and given how well your defense was playing, ten points might have been what the Broncos needed.

And there was almost three quarters of football remaining, and more plays to change the course of this game. Stidham’s brutal fumble basically gifted New England a touchdown, and the Patriots were able to find some success running the football — and thereby working the clock — in the difficult weather conditions in the second half. That was enough to help them salt the game away.

Still, the three-point difference leads to debates such as this one.

However, you can also point to the analytics from ESPN, note that there was a recommendation to go for it on this play, and concede that sometimes, the defense just makes a play of their own to change the numbers. That seems to be where Payton landed on the decision after the game.

“I wish I’d stayed with the initial play call,” Payton said late Sunday night. “The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn’t the look we got.”

Unfortunately for Broncos fans, it will be a long spring left wondering about what could have been.