A.J. Brown’s trade value is plummeting with every new deal

The Philadelphia Eagles have been locked in a difficult situation with wide receiver A.J. Brown. His mammoth salary has meant the team has been unable to trade him, instead needing to wait until June 1 to pull off a deal that would see his salary cap hit spread over two seasons. The problem is that this waiting time is profoundly tanking the trade value he once had, and there’s a very real chance the Eagles will either need keep him on the roster, or suck it up and accept a much, much lower offer than they once hoped for.

Brown is back in the discussion after the Miami Dolphins made the stunning move on Tuesday to trade Jaylen Waddle and a 4th-round pick to the Broncos for a 1st-round pick, a 3rd, and a 4th. With Denver’s picks being at No. 30 in each round it’s a very low return for a 27-year-old thousand-yard receiver who has only had down play due to the Dolphins’ horrible mismanagement.

It’s the kind of move that means we need to recalibrate what we thought Brown could fetch on the open market. Philly fans are still holding out hope that it could lead to a Brown for Maxx Crosby swap, which might be nice dreaming — but at this point there’s no evidence that the Raiders are opening to try and trade Crosby again, and if they were, would Brown being enough? We’re seeing positional value play a role here, with top pass rushers being valued much more highly that No. 1 wide receivers.

The NFL adage for a long time has been that the return on trades after the draft, but before the season roughly downgrade the value of picks in a deal by one round. For example, a player who would be a 1st round pick when traded in March, would become a 2nd round pick in June. Only players regarded as Top 3 at their position, or having extreme positional value are able to break this mold. This means that at best the Eagles might be able to ask for a 2nd round pick after they’re able to trade him.

Then you need to factor in that the majority of the league believes the Eagles are motivated sellers on A.J. Brown. Everyone saw the sideline blow-up between Brown and head coach Nick Sirianni, as well as the reality that Philly has a crowded receiver room with an offense that doesn’t really necessitate having a player like Brown on the roster anymore.

Eagles fans are going to need to adjust their expectations when it comes to an A.J. Brown trade because of everything else that happened around the league. The Jaguars reportedly didn’t get offers on Brian Thomas Jr. that met their demands, Michael Pittman Jr. was traded for a ham sandwich, now Jaylen Waddle has been dealt on a low deal. Receivers just don’t command what they once did with the league pivoting to be more of a running league — which ironically was spurred on because of the Eagles’ success with Saquon Barkley.

If A.J. Brown commands anything more than a 2nd-round pick in a deal it will be a stunner.