Yeah, so... Week 7 was sort of a disaster. To recap: last week’s picks went 1-4, and I’m an idiot. But at least I’m not alone on this one.
NFL Picks, Lines And Odds For Week 8: You Know What? Just Bet Against Every Favorite
After a brief hiccup in Week 6, last weekend saw NFL underdogs get back to doing what they do best: Making America look stupid. And as the NFL season approaches its halfway mark, we’ve reached a tipping point. From here on out, we might as well just bet on all the underdogs. Get ready for NFL Weekend with picks and odds from Odds Shark and SB Nation.
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Basically, if you picked more than one favorite in Week 7, chances are you lost money by the end of the day. Odds Shark breaks down the carnage, writing that "underdogs showed us Sunday that they still plan to make lots of noise, going 8-5 ATS. There were only two double-digit dogs in Week 7 and Cleveland won outright in New Orleans (+12.5) and the Bills nearly won in Baltimore (losing 37-34 as 12.5-point underdogs). There were five outright upsets, making huge profits for NFL moneyline bettors who picked those teams."
...First of all, how is that possible? And second, why didn't anyone tell me that last week? And why didn't someone explain that yes, last Sunday would the first game that Darren McFadden actually does something productive? Just brutal.
To give you an idea of Sunday's frustrations, in Friday's NFL buffet I wrote, "Miami seems like a team that's destined to play in close games all year long, go 9-7, and miss the playoffs as the AFC's seventh-place team. So this game will end like, 27-23, and the Steelers will win." And had Ben Roethlisberger's touchdown in the final minutes counted, Pittsburgh would have won 27-22. Almost exactly what I predicted. But no, it got overturned, the Steelers kicked the go-ahead field goal, and I got screwed.
Because some weeks, the NFL just tortures us. So who’s up for more torture?! Here are the Week 8 lines courtesy of Odds Shark’s suddenly awesome odds page and SB Nation’s own odds section:
- Miami at Cincinnati (-2)
- Washington at Detroit (-3)
- Green Bay at NY Jets (-6)
- Carolina at St. Louis (-3)
- Jacksonville at Dallas (-6.5)
- Buffalo at Kansas City (-7.5)
- Denver at San Francisco (-1)
- Tennessee at San Diego (-3.5)
- Minnesota at New England (-5)
- Tampa Bay at Arizona (-3)
- Seattle at Oakland (-2.5)
- Pittsburgh at New Orleans (-1)
- Houston at Indianapolis (-5.5)
Notice something about those games? EVERY HOME TEAM’S FAVORED. Almost like last week never happened, and we’re all still pretending that home field makes a big difference in the NFL.
So, after last week’s folly, I’m going in a different direction this week. Nothing like responding to a bad week by going way too far in the other direction... We’re picking all underdogs for Week 8.
1. Green Bay (+6) at New York Jets. I could have sworn there was an unwritten rule out there that said anytime two supposed Super Bowl contenders face off, the home team is favored by 3. Isn't that what happens with big games in the NFL? It's Vegas' way of saying, "We have no clue... Take your chances!" But apparently this game's an exception, because the Jets are favored by double that. Question mark? The Jets are 7-1 straight up against the Packers since 1981, but... Getting six points, I feel pretty good about taking the Packers.
2. Washington (+3) at Detroit. At this point, the Redskins are far away and the favorites to become 2010's "bad team that inexplicably has a winning record." Meanwhile, the Lions look like the clear-cut choice for 2010's "sneakily good team that inexplicably loses 11 games." So what happens when an immovable object meets the unstoppable force? Well, the Lions will find a way to piss this one way, because A) that's what they've done all year, and B) because that's how the Redskins have kept winning games. Also, we're due for a game where Donovan McNabb doesn't look awful. At least for one week. Take the Redskins.
3. Tennessee (+3.5) at San Diego. If it seems like we ask this question every year, that's because we do: Are the Titans better with Kerry Collins? It sure seems like it. And as far as this week's game's concerned, it just feels like San Diego is ready to implode, while the Titans are ready to go on a run. Plus: it's Jeff Fisher vs. Norv Turner. Last week, after Kenny Britt got into a scuffle at a club in downtown Nashville, Fisher went to the club to investigate the incident himself. Can you imagine Norv doing something like that? I can hear the stuttering now.
So, I’d rather go with Fisher here. Take the Titans.
4. Miami (+2) at Cincinnati. The Bengals have shown sporadic signs of life this season, but on the whole, I think it's time we start to recognize them as a bad football team. They're disorganized, they don't have a true strength, and the Marvin Lewis firing is about three years overdue. Would you rather bet on Carson Palmer to be competent and the Bengals to stay committed, or take a Miami team that has fought hard in every single game they've played this year, and just played the best team in football (Pittsburgh) to the final whistle? Take the Dolphins.
5. Pittsburgh (+1) at New Orleans. At some point, it has to matter that the AFC is about 100 times more competitive than the NFC. Right? New Orleans has struggled to beat Carolina, Minnesota, and San Francisco--three teams with four wins between them--and just lost to one of the worst teams in the entire league. Pittsburgh has beaten two playoff teams in Atlanta and Tennesse, and just beat a Miami team that’s been upending favorites all year long. This one just makes too much sense.
So... On second thought, since the NFL makes a habit of mocking our logic, let's go in the other direction. All signs point to Pittsburgh here, but that's why it makes sense. Because if there's one thing we know, it's that the NFL never makes sense. Besides, we can't take ALL underdogs this week, and this one's basically a pick 'em. Because Drew Brees won't have two bad games in a row, and because rooting for New Orleans is fun: Take the Saints.
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