Last week I talked about how, when it comes to the subjective rankers, many times a team’s record is the only thing to consider when ranking a team. Then I pointed out why that should not be the only thing to consider when ranking a team, and used the Atlanta Falcons as my example.
2012 Advanced NFL power rankings: Texans claim top spot in Week 11
The Falcons finally lost their first game. Naturally that means everyone should dump them from the top spot.
Jonathan Daniel
It’s nice when my hunches are confirmed. Though, the Colts continue to make a liar out of me.
Now that the Falcons have finally lost, none of the subjective rankers have them at the top of their lists. Not one. In Atlanta’s vacant spot, the rankers have unanimously anointed the Houston Texans as the NFL’s top team. As you’ll see later on, that’s a good choice.
Division Averages
| Division | Avg Ranking |
|---|---|
| NFC North | 10.2500 |
| NFC South | 14.1184 |
| NFC West | 14.4474 |
| AFC North | 15.8947 |
| NFC East | 17.9474 |
| AFC South | 18.1447 |
| AFC East | 19.6711 |
| AFC West | 21.5263 |
The NFC’s complete dominance over the AFC only lasted one week. With the AFC North gaining this week, and the NFC East losing, the NFC has slipped slightly.
Stock Rising
| Team | Week 10 Average | Week 11 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 20.386 | 15.881 | 4.505 |
| CIN | 22.744 | 18.330 | 4.414 |
| TEN | 28.074 | 24.165 | 3.909 |
| BAL | 10.483 | 7.494 | 2.989 |
| DEN | 7.091 | 5.028 | 2.063 |
Knock off the one remaining undefeated team and you’ll be rewarded handsomely in the rankings. Dominate the Giants, you’ll be rewarded as well.
Stock Falling
| Team | Week 10 Average | Week 11 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 14.568 | 19.869 | -5.301 |
| NYG | 7.023 | 10.972 | -3.949 |
| NYJ | 21.852 | 25.534 | -3.682 |
| PHI | 21.847 | 24.540 | -2.693 |
| CAR | 20.716 | 23.403 | -2.687 |
Suffer a horrible loss at the hands of a bottom-third team? That’s a paddlin’.
Subjective Average
| Subjective | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||
| Texans | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1.273  | ||
| Falcons | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.091 | -1.091  | ||
| Bears | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4.091 | -1.091 | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4.727 | -0.909 | ||
| Packers | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5.000 | 0.273 | ||
| Broncos | 7 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6.182 | 2.000 | ||
| Ravens | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6.364 | 2.727 | ||
| Patriots | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 7.636 | -0.454 | ||
| Steelers | 9 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 8.000 | 0.636 | ||
| Giants | 10 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10.818 | -4.272 | ||
| Seahawks | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 11.273 | 0.363 | ||
| Colts | 11 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 11.364 | 0.545 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13.273 | 1.363 | ||
| Vikings | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 14.000 | 1.364 | ||
| Saints | 16 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 14.636 | 4.637 | ||
| Cowboys | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 21 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 16.273 | 2.273 | ||
| Bengals | 19 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 17 | 17 | 17.909 | 3.455 | ||
| Lions | 17 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17.909 | -3.454 | ||
| Dolphins | 18 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 18 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 19.364 | -4.728 | ||
| Chargers | 20 | 28 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20.182 | -3.000 | ||
| Cardinals | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 21.909 | -1.091 | ||
| Rams | 23 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 22.455 | 2.000 | ||
| Redskins | 21 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22.818 | -0.636 | ||
| Eagles | 24 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 25 | 24 | 23.455 | -2.637 | ||
| Titans | 25 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23.455 | 4.818 | ||
| Bills | 27 | 23 | 28 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 26.000 | 1.636 | ||
| Jets | 26 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 26.818 | -2.363 | ||
| Panthers | 29 | 30 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 25 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28.182 | -2.000 | ||
| Raiders | 28 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 28.455 | -1.455 | ||
| Browns | 30 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29.364 | -0.182 | ||
| Chiefs | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31.455 | 0.545 | ||
| Jaguars | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31.546 | -0.546 | ||
Observations:
- The Falcons lost their first game! Naturally that means they’re no longer the top team. The Texans are the unanimous heir to the Falcons throne atop the subjective rankings.
- Are the Chargers really the fifth-worst team in the NFL? Am I being a homer for thinking Brian Billick is crazy?
- In fact, in Billick’s eyes, three of the five worst teams in the NFL come out of the AFC West.
- Oh look! The Chiefs finally get a lead in a game and they’re no longer the worst team in the NFL! You can thank Joel Thorman for casting the deciding vote to get the Chiefs out of the cellar.
- Speaking of the Chiefs. Before this week, they were the consensus worst team in the NFL. That “worst team” nearly beat the Steelers on Monday night. That means the Steelers — sans Roethlisberger, mind you — should naturally rise in the rankings. Makes perfect sense.
- The top 10 teams are an even 5-5 split between AFC and NFC. #Parity
Subjective Standard Deviation
| Subjective | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | | | |  | | |||
| Texans | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | -0.617  | ||
| Falcons | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.288 | 0.288  | ||
| Chiefs | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 0.498 | 0.498 | ||
| Jaguars | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0.498 | 0.498 | ||
| Seahawks | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 0.862 | 0.219 | ||
| Colts | 11 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 0.979 | -0.017 | ||
| Raiders | 28 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 0.988 | -0.057 | ||
| Cardinals | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 0.996 | -0.196 | ||
| Lions | 17 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 0.996 | -0.729 | ||
| Jets | 26 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 1.029 | -0.530 | ||
| Vikings | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 1.045 | -0.875 | ||
| Patriots | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 1.068 | 0.039 | ||
| Packers | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1.128 | 0.378 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 1.213 | -0.453 | ||
| Browns | 30 | 26 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 1.226 | -0.523 | ||
| Giants | 10 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 1.266 | -0.039 | ||
| Saints | 16 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 1.298 | -1.041 | ||
| Bills | 27 | 23 | 28 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 1.414 | 0.264 | ||
| Ravens | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 1.432 | 0.268 | ||
| Bears | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.443 | 1.017 | ||
| Panthers | 29 | 30 | 25 | 28 | 30 | 25 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 1.641 | -0.305 | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1.656 | 0.940 | ||
| Bengals | 19 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 17 | 17 | 1.676 | -0.096 | ||
| Broncos | 7 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 1.800 | 1.084 | ||
| Cowboys | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 21 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 1.814 | -0.334 | ||
| Dolphins | 18 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 18 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 1.823 | -0.234 | ||
| Steelers | 9 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1.907 | 0.296 | ||
| Titans | 25 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 1.924 | 0.110 | ||
| Eagles | 24 | 22 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 23 | 19 | 25 | 24 | 1.971 | 0.171 | ||
| Rams | 23 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 23 | 25 | 2.231 | -0.305 | ||
| Redskins | 21 | 20 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 2.367 | 0.200 | ||
| Chargers | 20 | 28 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 2.886 | -0.154 | ||
Observations:
- The Texans were a unanimous choice for No. 1.
- The Falcons would have been unanimous if it weren’t for Fox picking the Broncos at No. 2 instead.
- The Chargers are the most inconsistent team in the NFL. But that’s pretty much thanks to Fox. Take out their ranking, and the Chargers’ Standard Deviation drops to 1.647; in line with the Panthers and 49ers.
- The Colts are the fifth most-consistently-ranked team in the subjective rankings. Keep that in mind for the moment.
- Overall though, rankings are becoming more consistent.
Objective Average
| Objective | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | |||
| Texans | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.125 | 0.875 | ||
| Broncos | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3.875 | 2.125 | ||
| Bears | 4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4.375 | -0.125 | ||
| 49ers | 6 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4.375 | -1.875 | ||
| Packers | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 5.125 | 0.500 | ||
| Patriots | 2 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 6.125 | 0.000  | ||
| Falcons | 12 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 7.125 | -1.625 | ||
| Seahawks | 3 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 7.625 | 1.000 | ||
| Ravens | 8 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 8.625 | 3.250 | ||
| Giants | 9 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 11.125 | -3.625 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 11.250 | 0.875 | ||
| Steelers | 11 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 11.625 | -0.625 | ||
| Cowboys | 10 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 12.750 | 0.625 | ||
| Lions | 14 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 15.625 | -0.500 | ||
| Vikings | 15 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 19 | 15.875 | 2.125 | ||
| Saints | 17 | 24 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 17.125 | 4.375 | ||
| Panthers | 19 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 24 | 18.625 | -3.375 | ||
| Bengals | 16 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 18.750 | 5.375 | ||
| Rams | 18 | 12 | 19 | 16 | 24 | 27 | 19 | 22 | 19.625 | 2.000 | ||
| Redskins | 20 | 18 | 26 | 19 | 25 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 20.125 | 0.000 | ||
| Dolphins | 21 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 20.375 | -5.875 | ||
| Chargers | 23 | 21 | 27 | 18 | 27 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 21.500 | 1.625 | ||
| Colts | 27 | 27 | 11 | 24 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 21.625 | 1.375 | ||
| Cardinals | 24 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 22.625 | -1.750 | ||
| Jets | 25 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 24.250 | -5.000 | ||
| Titans | 29 | 30 | 17 | 27 | 14 | 24 | 29 | 29 | 24.875 | 3.000 | ||
| Eagles | 26 | 20 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 25.625 | -2.750 | ||
| Bills | 22 | 29 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 26.375 | 0.625 | ||
| Browns | 28 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27.250 | -0.125 | ||
| Raiders | 30 | 25 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29.000 | -2.125 | ||
| Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31.125 | -0.750 | ||
| Chiefs | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 31.500 | 0.375 | ||
Observations:
- For weeks now, the Texans have been atop the Objective rankings. Glad to see the Subjective rankers finally got the memo once the Falcons lost. I’ve harped on it before, you just can’t go by raw record. It’s always said each year that Team A is better than their record indicates, why is the inverse not as accepted?
- Wow, the Broncos aren’t far behind the Texans. Four of the eight objective sites rank the Broncos second or first. That doesn’t bode well for their AFC West opponents.
- Chiefs back at the bottom of the list. All is right with the world again.
- See, even though the Steelers beat the Chiefs, it was not a well-played game: the Steelers have dropped in the objective rankings this week. Pittsburgh dropped in six of eight objective rankings.
- Huh, Patriots didn’t move this week on average. Their rankings did change this week, but they still added up to the same average.
- I’ve been harping that the Colts have been “overrated” for the last few weeks. If only they would stop winning so I could be proven right. They still aren’t ranked very highly in six of eight objective sites.
Objective Standard Deviation
| Objective | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | | | |||
| Chiefs | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 0.500 | 0.169 | ||
| Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 0.927 | 0.231 | ||
| Browns | 28 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 1.392 | -0.696 | ||
| Raiders | 30 | 25 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 1.658 | -0.814 | ||
| Packers | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1.691 | -0.651 | ||
| Texans | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.965 | -0.214 | ||
| 49ers | 6 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.996 | 0.673 | ||
| Bears | 4 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2.176 | -1.206 | ||
| Falcons | 12 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2.204 | 0.025 | ||
| Cowboys | 10 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 14 | 2.222 | -2.019 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 2.278 | -0.979 | ||
| Steelers | 11 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 2.342 | 0.610 | ||
| Jets | 25 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 2.385 | -0.249 | ||
| Dolphins | 21 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 24 | 21 | 2.395 | -0.521 | ||
| Giants | 9 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 2.713 | 1.847 | ||
| Vikings | 15 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 19 | 2.848 | 0.064 | ||
| Lions | 14 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 2.955 | -0.666 | ||
| Seahawks | 3 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 2.997 | 0.307 | ||
| Bengals | 16 | 14 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 3.152 | 0.533 | ||
| Redskins | 20 | 18 | 26 | 19 | 25 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 3.219 | -0.114 | ||
| Cardinals | 24 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 3.238 | 0.098 | ||
| Bills | 22 | 29 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 3.314 | -0.958 | ||
| Broncos | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3.407 | 0.128 | ||
| Eagles | 26 | 20 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 21 | 27 | 23 | 3.603 | 0.052 | ||
| Chargers | 23 | 21 | 27 | 18 | 27 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 3.606 | 0.506 | ||
| Ravens | 8 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 3.672 | -1.109 | ||
| Patriots | 2 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 4.285 | 0.664 | ||
| Rams | 18 | 12 | 19 | 16 | 24 | 27 | 19 | 22 | 4.386 | 0.714 | ||
| Saints | 17 | 24 | 12 | 15 | 26 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 4.807 | 0.391 | ||
| Panthers | 19 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 24 | 5.430 | 0.882 | ||
| Titans | 29 | 30 | 17 | 27 | 14 | 24 | 29 | 29 | 5.732 | 1.361 | ||
| Colts | 27 | 27 | 11 | 24 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 6.800 | 0.377 | ||
Observations:
- Amusing that the four most consistently-ranked teams are at the bottom of the rankings, and all four are AFC teams.
- Some of the objective rankings can be a bit quicker to react to a team’s recent successes, as evidenced by the Colts and Titans rankings on Team Rankings and BeatGraphs.
- Team Efficiency likes what the Panthers have done recently.
- I find it difficult to figure the Saints out; looks like I’m not alone there.
Overall Average
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  | | |||
| Texans | 1.000 | 2.125 | 1.563 | 1.073 | ||
| Bears | 4.091 | 4.375 | 4.233 | -0.608 | ||
| 49ers | 4.727 | 4.375 | 4.551 | -1.392 | ||
| Falcons | 2.091 | 7.125 | 4.608 | -1.358 | ||
| Broncos | 6.182 | 3.875 | 5.028 | 2.063 | ||
| Packers | 5.000 | 5.125 | 5.063 | 0.386 | ||
| Patriots | 7.636 | 6.125 | 6.881 | -0.228 | ||
| Ravens | 6.364 | 8.625 | 7.494 | 2.989 | ||
| Seahawks | 11.273 | 7.625 | 9.449 | 0.682 | ||
| Steelers | 8.000 | 11.625 | 9.813 | 0.005 | ||
| Giants | 10.818 | 11.125 | 10.972 | -3.949 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13.273 | 11.250 | 12.261 | 1.120 | ||
| Cowboys | 16.273 | 12.750 | 14.511 | 1.449 | ||
| Vikings | 14.000 | 15.875 | 14.938 | 1.744 | ||
| Saints | 14.636 | 17.125 | 15.881 | 4.505 | ||
| Colts | 11.364 | 21.625 | 16.494 | 0.961 | ||
| Lions | 17.909 | 15.625 | 16.767 | -1.977 | ||
| Bengals | 17.909 | 18.750 | 18.330 | 4.414 | ||
| Dolphins | 19.364 | 20.375 | 19.869 | -5.301 | ||
| Chargers | 20.182 | 21.500 | 20.841 | -0.688 | ||
| Rams | 22.455 | 19.625 | 21.040 | 2.000 | ||
| Redskins | 22.818 | 20.125 | 21.472 | -0.319 | ||
| Cardinals | 21.909 | 22.625 | 22.267 | -1.420 | ||
| Panthers | 28.182 | 18.625 | 23.403 | -2.687 | ||
| Titans | 23.455 | 24.875 | 24.165 | 3.909 | ||
| Eagles | 23.455 | 25.625 | 24.540 | -2.693 | ||
| Jets | 26.818 | 24.250 | 25.534 | -3.682 | ||
| Bills | 26.000 | 26.375 | 26.188 | 1.130 | ||
| Browns | 29.364 | 27.250 | 28.307 | -0.154 | ||
| Raiders | 28.455 | 29.000 | 28.727 | -1.789 | ||
| Jaguars | 31.546 | 31.125 | 31.335 | -0.647 | ||
| Chiefs | 31.455 | 31.500 | 31.477 | 0.461 | ||
Observations:
- Texans are on top, by a significant margin.
- Broncos drop a bit, but are still top five and rose over two spots this week.
- Clusters of teams are a bit less defined this week. Kind of a smooth gradient throughout the rankings. Yes, there are some clusters, but it’s far less pronounced than in weeks past.
- Poor Miami. They dropped significantly this week, and by a wider margin than the Titans rose. That was a bad loss.
Overall Standard Deviation
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | |||
| Chiefs | 31.455 | 31.500 | 0.499 | 0.276 | ||
| Jaguars | 31.546 | 31.125 | 0.741 | 0.194 | ||
| Raiders | 28.455 | 29.000 | 1.340 | -0.451 | ||
| Texans | 1.000 | 2.125 | 1.391 | -0.142 | ||
| Packers | 5.000 | 5.125 | 1.395 | -0.237 | ||
| Browns | 29.364 | 27.250 | 1.666 | -0.487 | ||
| Bears | 4.091 | 4.375 | 1.794 | -0.509 | ||
| 49ers | 4.727 | 4.375 | 1.816 | 0.609 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13.273 | 11.250 | 2.008 | -0.751 | ||
| Giants | 10.818 | 11.125 | 2.012 | 0.778 | ||
| Dolphins | 19.364 | 20.375 | 2.142 | -0.314 | ||
| Jets | 26.818 | 24.250 | 2.148 | -1.158 | ||
| Vikings | 14.000 | 15.875 | 2.214 | -0.449 | ||
| Cardinals | 21.909 | 22.625 | 2.261 | 0.030 | ||
| Lions | 17.909 | 15.625 | 2.350 | -0.361 | ||
| Bills | 26.000 | 26.375 | 2.412 | -0.512 | ||
| Bengals | 17.909 | 18.750 | 2.446 | -0.116 | ||
| Cowboys | 16.273 | 12.750 | 2.647 | -1.447 | ||
| Seahawks | 11.273 | 7.625 | 2.731 | 0.387 | ||
| Steelers | 8.000 | 11.625 | 2.760 | 0.728 | ||
| Broncos | 6.182 | 3.875 | 2.839 | 0.393 | ||
| Ravens | 6.364 | 8.625 | 2.848 | -0.659 | ||
| Falcons | 2.091 | 7.125 | 2.876 | 0.242 | ||
| Eagles | 23.455 | 25.625 | 2.977 | 0.111 | ||
| Patriots | 7.636 | 6.125 | 2.991 | 0.460 | ||
| Redskins | 22.818 | 20.125 | 3.062 | 0.159 | ||
| Chargers | 20.182 | 21.500 | 3.274 | -0.969 | ||
| Saints | 14.636 | 17.125 | 3.495 | -0.053 | ||
| Rams | 22.455 | 19.625 | 3.596 | 0.227 | ||
| Titans | 23.455 | 24.875 | 4.058 | 0.897 | ||
| Panthers | 28.182 | 18.625 | 6.020 | -0.307 | ||
| Colts | 11.364 | 21.625 | 6.759 | -0.164 | ||
Observations:
- Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders and Browns: consistently terrible.
- Texans, Packers, Bears and 49ers: consistently good.
- Colts and Panthers at the bottom of this list for the same reason: massive rifts between their objective and subjective rankings. The “rift” for the Colts and Panthers go in opposite directions for each other.
Difference in Averages
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |  | | |||
| Colts | 11.364 | 21.625 | 10.261 | -0.830 | ||
| Falcons | 2.091 | 7.125 | 5.034 | 0.534 | ||
| Steelers | 8.000 | 11.625 | 3.625 | 1.261 | ||
| Saints | 14.636 | 17.125 | 2.489 | 0.262 | ||
| Ravens | 6.364 | 8.625 | 2.261 | -0.523 | ||
| Eagles | 23.455 | 25.625 | 2.171 | 0.114 | ||
| Vikings | 14.000 | 15.875 | 1.875 | -0.761 | ||
| Titans | 23.455 | 24.875 | 1.421 | 1.819 | ||
| Chargers | 20.182 | 21.500 | 1.318 | -4.625 | ||
| Texans | 1.000 | 2.125 | 1.125 | 0.398 | ||
| Dolphins | 19.364 | 20.375 | 1.011 | 1.147 | ||
| Bengals | 17.909 | 18.750 | 0.841 | -1.920 | ||
| Cardinals | 21.909 | 22.625 | 0.716 | 0.659 | ||
| Raiders | 28.455 | 29.000 | 0.546 | 0.671 | ||
| Bills | 26.000 | 26.375 | 0.375 | 1.011 | ||
| Giants | 10.818 | 11.125 | 0.307 | -0.648 | ||
| Bears | 4.091 | 4.375 | 0.284 | -0.966 | ||
| Packers | 5.000 | 5.125 | 0.125 | -0.227 | ||
| Chiefs | 31.455 | 31.500 | 0.046 | 0.171 | ||
| 49ers | 4.727 | 4.375 | -0.352 | 0.966 | ||
| Jaguars | 31.546 | 31.125 | -0.421 | 0.204 | ||
| Patriots | 7.636 | 6.125 | -1.511 | -0.454 | ||
| Buccaneers | 13.273 | 11.250 | -2.023 | 0.488 | ||
| Browns | 29.364 | 27.250 | -2.114 | -0.057 | ||
| Lions | 17.909 | 15.625 | -2.284 | -2.955 | ||
| Broncos | 6.182 | 3.875 | -2.307 | -0.125 | ||
| Jets | 26.818 | 24.250 | -2.568 | 2.637 | ||
| Redskins | 22.818 | 20.125 | -2.693 | -0.636 | ||
| Rams | 22.455 | 19.625 | -2.830 | 0.000 | ||
| Cowboys | 16.273 | 12.750 | -3.523 | 1.648 | ||
| Seahawks | 11.273 | 7.625 | -3.648 | -0.637 | ||
| Panthers | 28.182 | 18.625 | -9.557 | 1.375 | ||
Observations:
- Colts are still grossly over-ranked again this week, though their difference in average fell by just 0.8 spots. So their difference in average improved by about 7 percent this week. There’s still a long way to go.
- Even though they dropped in the subjective rankings, the Falcons are still significantly over-ranked.
- It amuses me slightly that the Eagles are still over-rated.
- The Panthers are still grossly under-ranked. Sure, they got blown-out by the Broncos, but they’re still better than fourth-worst.
- Scary that the Broncos show up in the under-ranked side of the scale.
- Two-thirds of the league is in the “over-ranked” category”; interesting ...
Best Match-ups for Week 11
| Opponents (Ranking) | Game Time | Ranking Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago (4.233) at San Francisco (4.551) | Mon, Nov. 19 8:30PM EST | 0.318 |
| Baltimore (7.494) at Pittsburgh (9.813) | Sun, Nov. 18 8:20PM EST | 2.319 |
Again, the marquee matchup this week involves Chicago. Baltimore at Pittsburgh may not be that close a game with Pittsburgh so banged up.
Worst Match-Ups for Week 11
| Opponents (Ranking) | Game Time | Ranking Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville (31.335) at Houston (1.563) | Sun, Nov. 18 1:00PM EDT | 29.772 |
| Arizona (22.267) at Atlanta (4.608) | Sun, Nov. 18 1:00PM EDT | 17.659 |
| San Diego (20.841) at Denver (5.028) | Sun, Nov. 18 4:25PM EDT | 15.813 |
The consensus top team against the consensus worst team. Who doesn’t want to watch that?!
Sources
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