Advanced NFL power rankings: Patriots assume the throne

After absolutely dominating the Houston Texans, and in the midst of a seven-game winning streak, it only seems right that the Patriots top the rankings this week. Where does your favorite team rank now?

by John Crean

Dec 13, 2012, 7:25 PM UTC

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Michael Ivins-USA TODAY Sports

I tend to underestimate how many new readers we pick up each week in this column, and in the last few weeks I’ve heard from some readers that they don’t quite follow what the various charts and stats mean. For those of you new here, you can get an explanation of what all these tables mean.

Division Averages

Division	Avg Ranking
NFC West	13.8816
NFC North	14.1974
NFC East	14.8026
AFC North	14.9474
NFC South	16.2105
AFC East	17.1053
AFC South	19.1447
AFC West	21.7105

Stock Rising

Team	Week 14 Average	Week 15 Average	Difference
NYG	8.563	5.881	2.682
CAR	24.150	21.477	2.673
DAL	17.288	14.631	2.657
SEA	9.063	6.472	2.591
CLE	24.063	21.784	2.279

Wow, look at how relatively little teams have moved this week. For instance, in Week 11 the Saints, Bengals and Titans all jumped 4 or more spots compared to Week 10.

Stock Falling

Team	Week 14 Average	Week 15 Average	Difference
CIN	11.225	14.051	-2.826
ARI	25.488	28.290	-2.802
ATL	4.625	7.278	-2.653
BAL	7.925	10.398	-2.473
PIT	11.300	13.773	-2.473

Subjective Average

	Subjective

Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.000	1.700
Broncos	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	2.455	1.445
Texans	3	4	2	2	5	3	2	2	2	3	4	2.909	-1.909
49ers	4	3	5	4	3	5	4	4	5	4	3	4.000	1.100
Falcons	5	5	4	5	6	4	7	6	4	6	5	5.182	-2.682
Packers	6	6	6	6	4	6	6	7	6	5	7	5.909	0.591
Giants	7	7	7	7	7	8	5	5	7	7	6	6.636	2.864
Ravens	8	9	8	10	8	9	8	9	8	8	9	8.546	-1.946
Seahawks	10	8	10	8	9	7	9	8	11	9	8	8.818	1.682
Colts	9	10	9	9	10	11	10	10	9	10	10	9.727	1.073
Redskins	12	11	15	12	11	10	11	11	10	12	11	11.455	2.545
Bears	11	12	11	11	12	15	13	12	15	11	12	12.273	-3.073
Steelers	15	16	14	13	13	14	12	14	12	13	13	13.546	-2.446
Cowboys	13	13	12	15	15	12	14	13	13	16	14	13.636	2.564
Bengals	14	15	13	14	16	13	15	15	16	15	16	14.727	-3.027
Vikings	16	14	17	16	14	16	16	16	14	14	15	15.273	2.527
Rams	17	17	18	18	17	17	17	18	19	18	17	17.546	1.254
Buccaneers	18	18	16	17	18	19	18	17	18	17	18	17.636	-2.436
Saints	22	19	22	19	19	18	19	20	20	19	19	19.636	-2.136
Jets	19	24	19	21	22	24	24	19	17	24	20	21.182	1.718
Browns	20	20	21	20	20	21	25	21	27	23	22	21.818	2.182
Chargers	23	21	20	22	23	25	21	22	23	21	21	22.000	2.700
Dolphins	21	22	26	24	21	22	20	23	22	20	23	22.182	-1.682
Panthers	26	25	27	23	25	20	22	27	24	25	25	24.455	3.345
Lions	25	23	25	26	24	28	23	25	26	22	24	24.636	-2.436
Bills	24	27	23	25	26	23	26	24	21	26	26	24.636	-3.136
Eagles	27	26	28	28	27	26	27	26	28	28	27	27.091	2.309
Titans	28	28	24	27	28	27	28	28	25	27	28	27.091	-1.991
Cardinals	29	29	29	32	29	29	30	29	30	29	29	29.455	-2.355
Raiders	30	32	32	31	31	31	29	32	29	30	30	30.636	0.364
Chiefs	32	31	30	29	30	30	32	30	32	32	31	30.818	-0.518
Jaguars	31	30	31	30	32	32	31	31	31	31	32	31.091	-0.191

Observations:

Last week, Houston was the unanimous No. 1 team. The Patriots embarrassed them this week, so naturally New England gets to assume the throne.
Who has been the bigger disappointment this year: Chargers or Eagles?
Hey, remember when the Cardinals beat the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 2? That was fun.
Coming off a stunning win in Pittsburgh, the Chargers rose in the rankings more than the Steelers fell.
The Colts keep rising, much to my chagrin. Apparently people tend to forget the Colts had this season’s second-easiest schedule (according to Football Outsiders).

Subjective Standard Deviation

	Subjective

Patriots	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.000	-0.640
Broncos	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	3	3	2	2	0.498	-0.202
Colts	9	10	9	9	10	11	10	10	9	10	10	0.617	-0.632
Rams	17	17	18	18	17	17	17	18	19	18	17	0.656	-1.571
Ravens	8	9	8	10	8	9	8	9	8	8	9	0.656	-0.144
Jaguars	31	30	31	30	32	32	31	31	31	31	32	0.668	-0.468
49ers	4	3	5	4	3	5	4	4	5	4	3	0.739	0.200
Buccaneers	18	18	16	17	18	19	18	17	18	17	18	0.771	0.023
Eagles	27	26	28	28	27	26	27	26	28	28	27	0.793	-0.227
Packers	6	6	6	6	4	6	6	7	6	5	7	0.793	-0.013
Giants	7	7	7	7	7	8	5	5	7	7	6	0.881	-1.132
Cardinals	29	29	29	32	29	29	30	29	30	29	29	0.891	0.060
Falcons	5	5	4	5	6	4	7	6	4	6	5	0.936	0.436
Texans	3	4	2	2	5	3	2	2	2	3	4	0.996	0.996
Chiefs	32	31	30	29	30	30	32	30	32	32	31	1.029	0.248
Bengals	14	15	13	14	16	13	15	15	16	15	16	1.052	-0.683
Vikings	16	14	17	16	14	16	16	16	14	14	15	1.052	0.072
Raiders	30	32	32	31	31	31	29	32	29	30	30	1.068	-0.115
Seahawks	10	8	10	8	9	7	9	8	11	9	8	1.113	-0.798
Steelers	15	16	14	13	13	14	12	14	12	13	13	1.157	-0.218
Cowboys	13	13	12	15	15	12	14	13	13	16	14	1.226	0.478
Saints	22	19	22	19	19	18	19	20	20	19	19	1.226	0.555
Redskins	12	11	15	12	11	10	11	11	10	12	11	1.305	0.858
Titans	28	28	24	27	28	27	28	28	25	27	28	1.311	-0.808
Chargers	23	21	20	22	23	25	21	22	23	21	21	1.348	-0.070
Bears	11	12	11	11	12	15	13	12	15	11	12	1.420	0.254
Lions	25	23	25	26	24	28	23	25	26	22	24	1.611	0.534
Dolphins	21	22	26	24	21	22	20	23	22	20	23	1.696	0.131
Bills	24	27	23	25	26	23	26	24	21	26	26	1.720	0.602
Panthers	26	25	27	23	25	20	22	27	24	25	25	2.017	0.690
Browns	20	20	21	20	20	21	25	21	27	23	22	2.208	0.535
Jets	19	24	19	21	22	24	24	19	17	24	20	2.443	0.930

Observations:

Again, it's unanimous that the Patriots are No. 1
Neat, pretty good consensus on the Rams being average. Also pretty good consensus in the Buccaneers in the bottom-half.
Giants and Packers duking it out for positioning.
Chiefs no longer unanimously the worst team in the league.
What do Mark Sanchez and the Jets' power rankings have in common? Inconsistency.

Objective Average

	Objective

49ers	4	2	4	2	2	3	2	2	2.625	1.250
Patriots	1	6	1	1	6	1	1	5	2.750	-0.125
Broncos	3	1	2	3	8	8	5	1	3.875	-0.250
Seahawks	2	4	6	6	3	6	3	3	4.125	3.500
Texans	8	5	3	4	5	2	7	4	4.750	-1.875
Giants	5	7	7	5	1	4	4	8	5.125	2.500
Packers	7	10	5	8	4	14	8	6	7.750	1.125
Bears	6	14	15	7	11	5	6	10	9.250	-0.750
Falcons	14	8	11	9	7	10	9	7	9.375	-2.625
Redskins	11	9	9	12	14	15	11	13	11.750	1.125
Ravens	10	21	12	10	17	9	10	9	12.250	-3.000
Bengals	9	11	16	13	21	11	14	12	13.375	-2.625
Steelers	13	15	18	17	9	13	16	11	14.000	-2.500
Buccaneers	15	17	23	11	16	7	12	14	14.375	-0.875
Cowboys	18	16	13	14	15	19	13	17	15.625	2.750
Rams	19	13	10	16	12	23	17	16	15.750	1.625
Lions	12	12	26	19	24	12	18	21	18.000	0.125
Panthers	16	3	24	21	32	16	21	15	18.500	2.000
Saints	21	20	21	18	19	17	20	22	19.750	-2.375
Vikings	24	26	17	15	18	21	15	24	20.000	1.750
Jets	25	19	14	23	10	26	24	26	20.875	1.000
Dolphins	23	18	19	22	25	20	22	18	20.875	-0.625
Browns	20	23	20	24	27	18	23	19	21.750	2.375
Colts	26	25	8	25	13	25	26	27	21.875	0.125
Chargers	22	24	25	20	28	22	19	20	22.500	0.250
Bills	17	22	22	26	20	30	25	23	23.125	-0.500
Cardinals	28	31	29	27	23	27	27	25	27.125	-3.250
Eagles	27	28	28	28	26	24	28	29	27.250	0.625
Titans	29	27	27	29	22	28	29	28	27.375	-0.375
Raiders	30	29	32	30	29	31	31	30	30.250	0.375
Jaguars	31	32	30	31	30	29	30	31	30.500	-0.375
Chiefs	32	30	31	32	31	32	32	32	31.500	-0.375

Observations:

I’ve seen calls for me to drop certain Objective sources because some people feel they throw a wrench into the rankings and really skew the results. But there’s a reason I use more ranking systems: they all have different criteria. If there’s not an agreement on a team’s ranking, then it means they aren’t doing things consistently well one way or another. If there is agreement, then they are a more consistent team. Also, you could point to each one of the objective rankings where they’re the outlier in at least one instance. I can’t get rid of all the objective sources.
Kind of funny how the 49ers are the overall top-ranked team in Objective Rankings, even though not one site ranked them in first place.
The Titans, Jaguars and Chiefs all dropped 0.375 spots this week, while the Raiders rose the same amount.
On the subjective side of things, the Colts rose over one full spot. On the objective side of things, they only rose one-eighth of one spot (0.125).

Objective Standard Deviation

	Objective

Chiefs	32	30	31	32	31	32	32	32	0.707	0.107
49ers	4	2	4	2	2	3	2	2	0.857	-1.290
Jaguars	31	32	30	31	30	29	30	31	0.866	-0.300
Raiders	30	29	32	30	29	31	31	30	0.968	-0.250
Eagles	27	28	28	28	26	24	28	29	1.479	-0.725
Seahawks	2	4	6	6	3	6	3	3	1.536	-0.806
Saints	21	20	21	18	19	17	20	22	1.561	-0.557
Texans	8	5	3	4	5	2	7	4	1.854	-0.293
Redskins	11	9	9	12	14	15	11	13	2.046	-0.042
Giants	5	7	7	5	1	4	4	8	2.088	-0.307
Cowboys	18	16	13	14	15	19	13	17	2.118	-0.224
Titans	29	27	27	29	22	28	29	28	2.176	-0.060
Falcons	14	8	11	9	7	10	9	7	2.176	-0.896
Cardinals	28	31	29	27	23	27	27	25	2.260	-1.463
Patriots	1	6	1	1	6	1	1	5	2.278	-0.168
Dolphins	23	18	19	22	25	20	22	18	2.368	0.322
Broncos	3	1	2	3	8	8	5	1	2.666	0.324
Browns	20	23	20	24	27	18	23	19	2.817	0.790
Chargers	22	24	25	20	28	22	19	20	2.828	0.147
Steelers	13	15	18	17	9	13	16	11	2.872	-0.290
Packers	7	10	5	8	4	14	8	6	2.948	-0.029
Bengals	9	11	16	13	21	11	14	12	3.498	1.644
Bears	6	14	15	7	11	5	6	10	3.597	-0.111
Bills	17	22	22	26	20	30	25	23	3.689	-0.340
Rams	19	13	10	16	12	23	17	16	3.865	0.059
Vikings	24	26	17	15	18	21	15	24	4.062	1.114
Ravens	10	21	12	10	17	9	10	9	4.116	-0.699
Buccaneers	15	17	23	11	16	7	12	14	4.414	0.843
Lions	12	12	26	19	24	12	18	21	5.220	0.906
Jets	25	19	14	23	10	26	24	26	5.622	0.089
Colts	26	25	8	25	13	25	26	27	6.716	0.064
Panthers	16	3	24	21	32	16	21	15	7.826	-0.048

Observations:

At least the Chiefs are consistent at being bad.
Holy crap are the Panthers still all over the board. From 3rd to 32nd depending on the ranking site.
If you took the two outliers out of there, the Colts actually are one of the most consistently-ranked teams at ~25th.

Overall Average

	Subj vs Obj

Patriots	1.000	2.750	1.875	0.788
Broncos	2.455	3.875	3.165	0.598
49ers	4.000	2.625	3.313	1.175
Texans	2.909	4.750	3.830	-1.892
Giants	6.636	5.125	5.881	2.682
Seahawks	8.818	4.125	6.472	2.591
Packers	5.909	7.750	6.830	0.858
Falcons	5.182	9.375	7.278	-2.653
Ravens	8.546	12.250	10.398	-2.473
Bears	12.273	9.250	10.761	-1.911
Redskins	11.455	11.750	11.602	1.836
Steelers	13.546	14.000	13.773	-2.473
Bengals	14.727	13.375	14.051	-2.826
Cowboys	13.636	15.625	14.631	2.657
Colts	9.727	21.875	15.801	0.599
Buccaneers	17.636	14.375	16.006	-1.656
Rams	17.546	15.750	16.648	1.440
Vikings	15.273	20.000	17.636	2.139
Saints	19.636	19.750	19.693	-2.255
Jets	21.182	20.875	21.028	1.360
Lions	24.636	18.000	21.318	-1.155
Panthers	24.455	18.500	21.477	2.673
Dolphins	22.182	20.875	21.528	-1.153
Browns	21.818	21.750	21.784	2.279
Chargers	22.000	22.500	22.250	1.475
Bills	24.636	23.125	23.881	-1.818
Eagles	27.091	27.250	27.170	1.468
Titans	27.091	27.375	27.233	-1.183
Cardinals	29.455	27.125	28.290	-2.802
Raiders	30.636	30.250	30.443	0.370
Jaguars	31.091	30.500	30.795	-0.282
Chiefs	30.818	31.500	31.159	-0.446

Observations:

17 teams rose in ranking this week; 15 teams dropped in ranking.
Seven NFC teams in the top 12, 5 AFC teams. Are the Steelers a top 12 team? Well, technically they’re ranked outside the top 12 overall, but they’re the 12th-highest-ranked team on the board.
If we’re getting technical, there are only 11 teams ranked 12th or better: Seven NFC teams and four AFC teams.
Wow, could the Lions and Panthers be any more analogous this week?
Eight of the bottom 10 teams are in the AFC.

Overall Standard Deviation

	Subj vs Obj

Jaguars	31.091	30.500	0.812	-0.400
Chiefs	30.818	31.500	0.968	0.151
49ers	4.000	2.625	1.042	-0.564
Raiders	30.636	30.250	1.045	-0.168
Eagles	27.091	27.250	1.136	-0.684
Saints	19.636	19.750	1.379	-0.120
Redskins	11.455	11.750	1.664	0.127
Giants	6.636	5.125	1.686	-0.695
Texans	2.909	4.750	1.688	-0.020
Patriots	1.000	2.750	1.712	0.012
Titans	27.091	27.375	1.734	-0.634
Broncos	2.455	3.875	1.905	0.253
Cowboys	13.636	15.625	1.930	-0.049
Cardinals	29.455	27.125	1.983	-1.036
Steelers	13.546	14.000	2.073	-0.279
Dolphins	22.182	20.875	2.108	0.309
Chargers	22.000	22.500	2.117	-0.174
Packers	5.909	7.750	2.202	-0.184
Browns	21.818	21.750	2.483	0.643
Bengals	14.727	13.375	2.498	0.648
Falcons	5.182	9.375	2.605	-0.360
Seahawks	8.818	4.125	2.661	0.110
Rams	17.546	15.750	2.706	-0.408
Bills	24.636	23.125	2.828	-0.039
Bears	12.273	9.250	2.974	0.331
Ravens	8.546	12.250	3.275	-0.246
Buccaneers	17.636	14.375	3.338	0.751
Vikings	15.273	20.000	3.611	0.739
Jets	21.182	20.875	4.097	0.206
Lions	24.636	18.000	4.870	1.262
Panthers	24.455	18.500	6.065	-0.392
Colts	9.727	21.875	7.429	0.252

Observations:

No real surprises here.

Difference in Averages

	Subj vs Obj

Colts	9.727	21.875	12.148	0.948
Vikings	15.273	20.000	4.727	0.777
Falcons	5.182	9.375	4.193	-0.057
Ravens	8.546	12.250	3.705	1.055
Cowboys	13.636	15.625	1.989	-0.186
Packers	5.909	7.750	1.841	-0.534
Texans	2.909	4.750	1.841	-0.034
Patriots	1.000	2.750	1.750	1.825
Broncos	2.455	3.875	1.421	1.696
Chiefs	30.818	31.500	0.682	-0.143
Chargers	22.000	22.500	0.500	2.450
Steelers	13.546	14.000	0.455	0.055
Redskins	11.455	11.750	0.296	1.421
Titans	27.091	27.375	0.284	-1.616
Eagles	27.091	27.250	0.159	1.684
Saints	19.636	19.750	0.114	0.239
Browns	21.818	21.750	-0.068	-0.193
Jets	21.182	20.875	-0.307	0.718
Raiders	30.636	30.250	-0.386	-0.011
Jaguars	31.091	30.500	-0.591	0.184
Dolphins	22.182	20.875	-1.307	-1.057
Bengals	14.727	13.375	-1.352	-0.402
49ers	4.000	2.625	-1.375	-0.150
Giants	6.636	5.125	-1.511	0.364
Bills	24.636	23.125	-1.511	-2.636
Rams	17.546	15.750	-1.796	-0.371
Cardinals	29.455	27.125	-2.330	0.895
Bears	12.273	9.250	-3.023	-2.323
Buccaneers	17.636	14.375	-3.261	-1.561
Seahawks	8.818	4.125	-4.693	-1.818
Panthers	24.455	18.500	-5.955	1.345
Lions	24.636	18.000	-6.636	-2.561

Observations:

The Colts’ disparity is growing each week. Now they’re over-ranked by over 12 spots. That’s almost a 40 percent over-ranking.
The last time a team was over-ranked anywhere near as much as the Colts are was when the 2010 Chiefs were over-ranked by about 10 spots late in the season. We all know what happened to them.
The Vikings are the next over-ranked team and it’s not even that close at 4.727.
Nine of the 10 most under-ranked teams are in the NFC.

Best Match-ups for Week 15

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Kansas City (31.159) at Oakland (30.443)	Sun, Dec. 16 4:25PM EST	0.716
Carolina (21.477) at San Diego (22.250)	Sun, Dec. 16 4:05PM EST	0.773
Pittsburgh (13.773) at Dallas (14.631)	Sun, Dec. 16 4:25PM EST	0.858
Minnesota (17.636) at St. Louis (16.648)	Sun, Dec. 16 1:00PM EST	0.988

Four games where the two teams are within one ranking spot of each other. Interesting how the Chiefs-Raiders game is the best match-up this week. I kind of expect the final score to look like a Royals-A’s score.

Worst Match-Ups for Week 15

Opponents (Ranking)	Game Time	Ranking Difference
Seattle (6.472) at Buffalo (23.881)	Sun, Dec. 16 4:05PM EST	17.409
Cincinnati (14.051) at Philadelphia (27.170)	Thu, Dec. 13 8:20PM EST	13.119
Indianapolis (15.801) at Houston (3.830)	Sun, Dec. 16 1:00PM EST	11.971