Some of you have noticed that my Power Rankings consensus has been on hiatus for the last three weeks. I was a bit preoccupied as my wife gave birth to our first child, a little baby girl. Then the subsequent lack of sleep caught up with me and I was barely functioning as a human being. But all is well now and I’m able to bring this column back.
Advanced NFL power rankings: No one agrees on the Colts
After taking a three-week break, the Advanced NFL Power Rankings returns with a vengeance. The Patriots are getting hot just at the right time, and the Redskins are making people take notice. The Colts, meanwhile, nobody can agree on.
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When we last visited these rankings (way back in Week 11), it’s been made evident here is that things haven’t changed much in the last three weeks. I, along with many other sites, remain unconvinced about the Colts, the Texans are still the top team, etc, etc. That’s not to say there aren’t some surprises or interesting trends to follow however.
Division Averages
| Division | Avg Ranking |
|---|---|
| AFC North | 13.5972 |
| NFC North | 14.0972 |
| NFC West | 14.4028 |
| NFC South | 15.2083 |
| AFC East | 16.8750 |
| NFC East | 17.0139 |
| AFC South | 18.5278 |
| AFC West | 22.2778 |
The AFC West is terrible and it’s not even close. What amuses me, though, is how the NFC East is hyped up as a powerhouse division, but they’re the worst NFC division at this point.
Stock Rising
| Team | Week 11 Average | Week 14 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 21.472 | 13.438 | 8.034 |
| CIN | 18.330 | 11.225 | 7.105 |
| CLE | 28.307 | 24.063 | 4.244 |
| NE | 6.881 | 2.663 | 4.218 |
| BUF | 26.188 | 22.063 | 4.125 |
All five teams are east of the Mississippi, and both Ohio teams are on this list.
Stock Falling
| Team | Week 11 Average | Week 14 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 14.938 | 19.775 | -4.837 |
| CHI | 4.233 | 8.850 | -4.617 |
| PHI | 24.540 | 28.638 | -4.098 |
| DET | 16.767 | 20.163 | -3.396 |
| ARI | 22.267 | 25.488 | -3.221 |
All NFC teams.
Subjective Average
| Subjective | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||
| Texans | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.000  | ||
| Falcons | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2.500 | -0.409  | ||
| Patriots | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.700 | 4.936  | ||
| Broncos | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.900 | 2.282 | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5.100 | -0.373 | ||
| Packers | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6.500 | -1.500 | ||
| Ravens | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6.600 | -0.236 | ||
| Bears | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9.200 | -5.109 | ||
| Giants | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9.500 | 1.318 | ||
| Seahawks | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10.500 | 0.773 | ||
| Colts | 9 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 10.800 | 0.564 | ||
| Steelers | 13 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11.100 | -3.100 | ||
| Bengals | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11.700 | 6.209 | ||
| Redskins | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 14.000 | 8.818 | ||
| Buccaneers | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15.200 | -1.927 | ||
| Cowboys | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 16.200 | 0.073 | ||
| Saints | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17.500 | -2.864 | ||
| Vikings | 17 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 17.800 | -3.800 | ||
| Rams | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 18.800 | 3.655 | ||
| Dolphins | 20 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20.500 | -1.136 | ||
| Bills | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 21.500 | 4.500 | ||
| Lions | 21 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22.200 | -4.291 | ||
| Jets | 22 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 22.900 | 3.918 | ||
| Browns | 24 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24.000 | 5.364 | ||
| Chargers | 25 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 24.700 | -4.518 | ||
| Titans | 26 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 26 | 25.100 | -1.645 | ||
| Cardinals | 27 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 27.100 | -5.191 | ||
| Panthers | 28 | 31 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27.800 | 0.382 | ||
| Eagles | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29.400 | -5.945 | ||
| Chiefs | 31 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 30 | 30.300 | 1.155 | ||
| Jaguars | 32 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 30.900 | 0.646 | ||
| Raiders | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 31.000 | -2.545 | ||
Observations:
- The “Change in Value” column is referencing Week 11, not Week 13 because I never entered the rankings for Weeks 12 or 13. #NewBaby
- It’s clear who the pundits feel belong in the top 12. Well, actually it’s the top 13, but the top 13 teams in this list have an average ranking of less than 12.
- Whoa, Raiders are now the consensus worst team in the league, supplanting the Chiefs.
Subjective Standard Deviation
| Subjective | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | | |  | | |||
| Texans | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | ||
| Redskins | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 0.447 | -1.920  | ||
| Falcons | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.500 | 0.212  | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0.539 | -1.117 | ||
| Patriots | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.640 | -0.428 | ||
| Saints | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 0.671 | -0.627 | ||
| Broncos | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0.700 | -1.100 | ||
| Cowboys | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 0.748 | -1.066 | ||
| Buccaneers | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 0.748 | -0.465 | ||
| Chiefs | 31 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 30 | 0.781 | 0.283 | ||
| Ravens | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0.800 | -0.632 | ||
| Packers | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 0.806 | -0.322 | ||
| Cardinals | 27 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 0.831 | -0.165 | ||
| Vikings | 17 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 0.980 | -0.065 | ||
| Eagles | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 1.020 | -0.951 | ||
| Lions | 21 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 1.077 | 0.081 | ||
| Bills | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 1.118 | -0.296 | ||
| Jaguars | 32 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 1.136 | 0.638 | ||
| Bears | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 1.166 | -0.277 | ||
| Raiders | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 1.183 | 0.195 | ||
| Colts | 9 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 1.249 | 0.270 | ||
| Panthers | 28 | 31 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 1.327 | -0.314 | ||
| Steelers | 13 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 1.375 | -0.532 | ||
| Chargers | 25 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 24 | 1.418 | -1.468 | ||
| Jets | 22 | 25 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 23 | 1.513 | 0.484 | ||
| Dolphins | 20 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 1.565 | -0.258 | ||
| Browns | 24 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 1.673 | 0.447 | ||
| Bengals | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 1.735 | 0.059 | ||
| Seahawks | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 1.911 | 1.049 | ||
| Giants | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 2.013 | 0.747 | ||
| Titans | 26 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 26 | 2.119 | 0.195 | ||
| Rams | 19 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 2.227 | -0.004 | ||
Observations:
- Texans still the unanimous No. 1 team.
- Oh wow, look at the Redskins’ consensus. Almost right in the middle and everyone is in agreement with that.
- The Saints, Cowboys and Buccaneers are also pretty consistently-ranked in the middle.
- Overall, teams are more consistently ranked this week. Look at how many green arrows there are compared to red arrows. That’s not a surprising trend this late in the season.
Objective Average
| Objective | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | | | |||
| Patriots | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2.625 | 3.500 | ||
| Texans | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2.875 | -0.750 | ||
| Broncos | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3.625 | 0.250 | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3.875 | 0.500 | ||
| Falcons | 14 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 6.750 | 0.375 | ||
| Giants | 7 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 7.625 | 3.500 | ||
| Seahawks | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7.625 | 0.000 | ||
| Bears | 6 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 8.500 | -4.125 | ||
| Packers | 5 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 8.875 | -3.750 | ||
| Ravens | 10 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 9.250 | -0.625 | ||
| Bengals | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10.750 | 8.000 | ||
| Steelers | 13 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 11.500 | 0.125 | ||
| Redskins | 11 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 12.875 | 7.250 | ||
| Buccaneers | 12 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 13.500 | -2.250 | ||
| Rams | 20 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 26 | 18 | 16 | 17.375 | 2.250 | ||
| Saints | 16 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 17.375 | -0.250 | ||
| Lions | 15 | 12 | 24 | 19 | 25 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 18.125 | -2.500 | ||
| Cowboys | 19 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 21 | 18.375 | -5.625 | ||
| Dolphins | 21 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 20 | 20.250 | 0.125 | ||
| Panthers | 18 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 32 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 20.500 | -1.875 | ||
| Vikings | 23 | 26 | 23 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 25 | 21.750 | -5.875 | ||
| Jets | 26 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 12 | 30 | 24 | 26 | 21.875 | 2.375 | ||
| Colts | 27 | 25 | 8 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 22.000 | -0.375 | ||
| Bills | 17 | 23 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 22.625 | 3.750 | ||
| Chargers | 22 | 21 | 26 | 20 | 28 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 22.750 | -1.250 | ||
| Cardinals | 25 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 23.875 | -1.250 | ||
| Browns | 24 | 24 | 21 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 24.125 | 3.125 | ||
| Titans | 29 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 22 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 27.000 | -2.125 | ||
| Eagles | 28 | 27 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 27.875 | -2.250 | ||
| Jaguars | 30 | 32 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 30 | 30.125 | 1.000 | ||
| Raiders | 32 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 30.625 | -1.625 | ||
| Chiefs | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 31.125 | 0.375 | ||
Observations:
- Patriots now ahead of Texans, but it’s very close. AFC Championship game, anyone? Broncos aren’t far behind either. As a Chargers fan: booooo.
- For as weak as the AFC is overall, I’m okay with seeing the top 3 teams here being AFC teams, even though all of the next six are NFC teams.
- I’m not the only one still unconvinced about the Colts. In fact, they actually dropped in Objective Rankings since three weeks ago.
- Huh ... Seattle’s objective ranking is exactly the same as it was 3 weeks ago. Yay for consistency.
- Chiefs are still the worst team in the league using the objective rankings, but the Raiders are closing in.
Objective Standard Deviation
| Objective | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | | | |||
| Chiefs | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 32 | 0.600 | 0.100 | ||
| Jaguars | 30 | 32 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 30 | 1.166 | 0.239 | ||
| Raiders | 32 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 31 | 1.218 | -0.440 | ||
| Bengals | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 1.854 | -1.298 | ||
| Browns | 24 | 24 | 21 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 22 | 2.027 | 0.635 | ||
| Dolphins | 21 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 20 | 2.046 | -0.349 | ||
| Redskins | 11 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 2.088 | -1.131 | ||
| Saints | 16 | 22 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 2.118 | -2.689 | ||
| 49ers | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.147 | 0.151 | ||
| Texans | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2.147 | 0.182 | ||
| Eagles | 28 | 27 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 28 | 29 | 2.204 | -1.399 | ||
| Titans | 29 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 22 | 27 | 29 | 28 | 2.236 | -3.496 | ||
| Seahawks | 3 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 2.342 | -0.655 | ||
| Broncos | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2.342 | -1.065 | ||
| Cowboys | 19 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 15 | 21 | 2.342 | 0.120 | ||
| Giants | 7 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 2.395 | -0.318 | ||
| Patriots | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2.446 | -1.839 | ||
| Chargers | 22 | 21 | 26 | 20 | 28 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 2.681 | -0.925 | ||
| Vikings | 23 | 26 | 23 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 25 | 2.948 | 0.100 | ||
| Packers | 5 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 2.977 | 1.286 | ||
| Falcons | 14 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3.072 | 0.868 | ||
| Steelers | 13 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3.162 | 0.820 | ||
| Buccaneers | 12 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 3.571 | 1.293 | ||
| Bears | 6 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 3.708 | 1.532 | ||
| Cardinals | 25 | 30 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 3.723 | 0.485 | ||
| Rams | 20 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 26 | 18 | 16 | 3.806 | -0.580 | ||
| Bills | 17 | 23 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 29 | 26 | 24 | 4.029 | 0.715 | ||
| Lions | 15 | 12 | 24 | 19 | 25 | 14 | 19 | 17 | 4.314 | 1.359 | ||
| Ravens | 10 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 4.815 | 1.143 | ||
| Jets | 26 | 19 | 16 | 22 | 12 | 30 | 24 | 26 | 5.533 | 3.148 | ||
| Colts | 27 | 25 | 8 | 23 | 14 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 6.652 | -0.148 | ||
| Panthers | 18 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 32 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 7.874 | 2.444 | ||
Observations:
- The bottom three teams as far as overall average are also the most consistently-ranked teams. The Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars are consistently bad ... still.
- See? There’s no consensus that the Colts are actually that good. In fact, remove the two outliers and they are a consistently-ranked bottom-eight team.
- The Panthers’ are at the bottom of this list thanks to Team Efficiency. They like something the Panthers are doing, but they’re the only ones. In fact, the Panthers’ ranking ranges from 4th to 32nd!
Overall Average
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  | | |||
| Texans | 1.000 | 2.875 | 1.938 | -0.375 | ||
| Patriots | 2.700 | 2.625 | 2.663 | 4.218 | ||
| Broncos | 3.900 | 3.625 | 3.763 | 1.265 | ||
| 49ers | 5.100 | 3.875 | 4.488 | 0.063 | ||
| Falcons | 2.500 | 6.750 | 4.625 | -0.017 | ||
| Packers | 6.500 | 8.875 | 7.688 | -2.625 | ||
| Ravens | 6.600 | 9.250 | 7.925 | -0.431 | ||
| Giants | 9.500 | 7.625 | 8.563 | 2.409 | ||
| Bears | 9.200 | 8.500 | 8.850 | -4.617 | ||
| Seahawks | 10.500 | 7.625 | 9.063 | 0.386 | ||
| Bengals | 11.700 | 10.750 | 11.225 | 7.105 | ||
| Steelers | 11.100 | 11.500 | 11.300 | -1.487 | ||
| Redskins | 14.000 | 12.875 | 13.438 | 8.034 | ||
| Buccaneers | 15.200 | 13.500 | 14.350 | -2.089 | ||
| Colts | 10.800 | 22.000 | 16.400 | 0.094 | ||
| Cowboys | 16.200 | 18.375 | 17.288 | -2.777 | ||
| Saints | 17.500 | 17.375 | 17.438 | -1.557 | ||
| Rams | 18.800 | 17.375 | 18.088 | 2.952 | ||
| Vikings | 17.800 | 21.750 | 19.775 | -4.837 | ||
| Lions | 22.200 | 18.125 | 20.163 | -3.396 | ||
| Dolphins | 20.500 | 20.250 | 20.375 | -0.506 | ||
| Bills | 21.500 | 22.625 | 22.063 | 4.125 | ||
| Jets | 22.900 | 21.875 | 22.388 | 3.146 | ||
| Chargers | 24.700 | 22.750 | 23.725 | -2.884 | ||
| Browns | 24.000 | 24.125 | 24.063 | 4.244 | ||
| Panthers | 27.800 | 20.500 | 24.150 | -0.747 | ||
| Cardinals | 27.100 | 23.875 | 25.488 | -3.221 | ||
| Titans | 25.100 | 27.000 | 26.050 | -1.885 | ||
| Eagles | 29.400 | 27.875 | 28.638 | -4.098 | ||
| Jaguars | 30.900 | 30.125 | 30.513 | 0.822 | ||
| Chiefs | 30.300 | 31.125 | 30.713 | 0.764 | ||
| Raiders | 31.000 | 30.625 | 30.813 | -2.086 | ||
Observations:
- Overall, the top-12 has an even 6-6 split between the AFC and NFC, and it’s also relatively evenly distributed.
- Chargers are a bottom-third team. Time to play for draft picks!
- After a promising run in the middle weeks, the Dolphins are faltering again. The inverse is true of the Bills.
- The overall rankings are bookended by three AFC teams.
- Oh cool, now the Raiders are the overall worst team in the NFL.
Overall Standard Deviation
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | |||
| Chiefs | 30.300 | 31.125 | 0.817 | 0.318 | ||
| Jaguars | 30.900 | 30.125 | 1.212 | 0.471 | ||
| Raiders | 31.000 | 30.625 | 1.213 | -0.127 | ||
| Saints | 17.500 | 17.375 | 1.499 | -1.996 | ||
| Redskins | 14.000 | 12.875 | 1.537 | -1.525 | ||
| 49ers | 5.100 | 3.875 | 1.606 | -0.210 | ||
| Broncos | 3.900 | 3.625 | 1.652 | -1.187 | ||
| Patriots | 2.700 | 2.625 | 1.700 | -1.291 | ||
| Texans | 1.000 | 2.875 | 1.708 | 0.317 | ||
| Dolphins | 20.500 | 20.250 | 1.799 | -0.343 | ||
| Eagles | 29.400 | 27.875 | 1.820 | -1.157 | ||
| Browns | 24.000 | 24.125 | 1.840 | 0.174 | ||
| Bengals | 11.700 | 10.750 | 1.850 | -0.596 | ||
| Cowboys | 16.200 | 18.375 | 1.979 | -0.668 | ||
| Chargers | 24.700 | 22.750 | 2.291 | -0.983 | ||
| Steelers | 11.100 | 11.500 | 2.352 | -0.408 | ||
| Titans | 25.100 | 27.000 | 2.368 | -1.690 | ||
| Giants | 9.500 | 7.625 | 2.381 | 0.369 | ||
| Packers | 6.500 | 8.875 | 2.386 | 0.991 | ||
| Seahawks | 10.500 | 7.625 | 2.551 | -0.180 | ||
| Buccaneers | 15.200 | 13.500 | 2.587 | 0.579 | ||
| Bears | 9.200 | 8.500 | 2.643 | 0.849 | ||
| Bills | 21.500 | 22.625 | 2.867 | 0.455 | ||
| Vikings | 17.800 | 21.750 | 2.872 | 0.658 | ||
| Falcons | 2.500 | 6.750 | 2.965 | 0.089 | ||
| Cardinals | 27.100 | 23.875 | 3.019 | 0.758 | ||
| Rams | 18.800 | 17.375 | 3.114 | -0.482 | ||
| Ravens | 6.600 | 9.250 | 3.521 | 0.673 | ||
| Lions | 22.200 | 18.125 | 3.608 | 1.258 | ||
| Jets | 22.900 | 21.875 | 3.891 | 1.743 | ||
| Panthers | 27.800 | 20.500 | 6.457 | 0.437 | ||
| Colts | 10.800 | 22.000 | 7.177 | 0.418 | ||
Observations:
- This table actually looks fairly familiar. It’s pretty close to the “Objective Standard Deviation” table.
- Unlike that table though, looks like more red arrows than green arrows this week. You’d think by now teams would be figured out and we’d be able to get their standard deviation way down.
Difference in Averages
| Subj vs Obj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |  | | |||
| Colts | 10.800 | 22.000 | 11.200 | 0.939 | ||
| Falcons | 2.500 | 6.750 | 4.250 | -0.784 | ||
| Vikings | 17.800 | 21.750 | 3.950 | 2.075 | ||
| Ravens | 6.600 | 9.250 | 2.650 | 0.389 | ||
| Packers | 6.500 | 8.875 | 2.375 | 2.250 | ||
| Cowboys | 16.200 | 18.375 | 2.175 | 5.698 | ||
| Titans | 25.100 | 27.000 | 1.900 | 0.479 | ||
| Texans | 1.000 | 2.875 | 1.875 | 0.750 | ||
| Bills | 21.500 | 22.625 | 1.125 | 0.750 | ||
| Chiefs | 30.300 | 31.125 | 0.825 | 0.779 | ||
| Steelers | 11.100 | 11.500 | 0.400 | -3.225 | ||
| Browns | 24.000 | 24.125 | 0.125 | 2.239 | ||
| Patriots | 2.700 | 2.625 | -0.075 | 1.436 | ||
| Saints | 17.500 | 17.375 | -0.125 | -2.614 | ||
| Dolphins | 20.500 | 20.250 | -0.250 | -1.261 | ||
| Broncos | 3.900 | 3.625 | -0.275 | 2.032 | ||
| Raiders | 31.000 | 30.625 | -0.375 | -0.921 | ||
| Bears | 9.200 | 8.500 | -0.700 | -0.984 | ||
| Jaguars | 30.900 | 30.125 | -0.775 | -0.354 | ||
| Bengals | 11.700 | 10.750 | -0.950 | -1.791 | ||
| Jets | 22.900 | 21.875 | -1.025 | 1.543 | ||
| Redskins | 14.000 | 12.875 | -1.125 | 1.568 | ||
| 49ers | 5.100 | 3.875 | -1.225 | -0.873 | ||
| Rams | 18.800 | 17.375 | -1.425 | 1.405 | ||
| Eagles | 29.400 | 27.875 | -1.525 | -3.696 | ||
| Buccaneers | 15.200 | 13.500 | -1.700 | 0.323 | ||
| Giants | 9.500 | 7.625 | -1.875 | -2.182 | ||
| Chargers | 24.700 | 22.750 | -1.950 | -3.268 | ||
| Seahawks | 10.500 | 7.625 | -2.875 | 0.773 | ||
| Cardinals | 27.100 | 23.875 | -3.225 | -3.941 | ||
| Lions | 22.200 | 18.125 | -4.075 | -1.791 | ||
| Panthers | 27.800 | 20.500 | -7.300 | 2.257 | ||
Observations:
- Colts, still grossly over-ranked. And that disparity grew again in the last three weeks. Guess a last-second touchdown inflates people’s perception of you.
- Falcons are still over-rated as well, though it’s gotten a little better, it’s still there.
- Interesting how the AFC teams are generally the ones over-ranked and the AFC teams are the ones under-ranked.
Best Match-ups for Week 14
| Opponents (Ranking) | Game Time | Ranking Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Houston (1.938) at New England (2.663) | Mon, Dec. 10 8:30PM EST | 0.725 |
| St. Louis (18.088) at Buffalo (22.063) | Sun, Dec. 9 1:00PM EST | 3.975 |
ESPN has really lucked out this year getting some of the best match-ups.
Worst Match-Ups for Week 14
| Opponents (Ranking) | Game Time | Ranking Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Denver (3.763) at Oakland (30.813) | Thu, Dec. 6 8:20PM EST | 27.050 |
| Atlanta (4.625) at Carolina (24.150) | Sun, Dec. 9 1:00PM EST | 19.525 |
| Arizona (25.488) at Seattle (9.063) | Sun, Dec. 9 4:25PM EST | 16.425 |
After getting some good match-ups this year, NFL Network looks to have a stinker on their hands on Thursday night.
Sources
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