NFL picks and predictions for all Week 4 games

If you had bet on Oakland the past six times they were in Denver, you would have booked six winning bets.

If you had bet on Oakland the past 12 times they were an underdog, you would have booked nine winning bets.

The Buccaneers and Redskins will both be looking for their second win of the season Sunday when they meet at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay. But while the spread favors the home side slightly (-2.5 at most shops listed on NFLOdds.ca), bettors are interested in Washington.

“They are just 5-15 ATS in 20 games as a dog, but they are 3-1 ATS in their past four, so the pendulum is swinging back,” said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com, the NFL lines provider to SBNation.

New Orleans never covers the spread at Lambeau, but are they at least motivated to cover a disrespectful 9-point spread on the Week 4 NFL odds menu?

The Green Bay Packers will try to rebound from Monday night’s controversial loss with a win at home against the winless Saints at Lambeau Field. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in five trips here since 1995, but they really need a big performance here.

And oddsmakers are finally giving them a bit of respect, with most online shops booking them as 6-point favorites through Friday.

”They are just 28/1 as a Super Bowl bet, according to some online sports betting shops, but they have been very tough at home and could easily cover the number here,” said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.

The experts over at ESPN have all made their picks for the weekend, and nine out of the 14 have selected the Giants to win. Jason Cole over at Yahoo! has picked the Giants as well, and the Yahoo! users seem to agree. Over at CBS Sports, six of the eight experts have chosen the Giants.

Philly does seem to have the local media on their side at least, as Ryan Wilson of NBC’s Philadelphia affiliate is picking the Eagles to win 28-27. NBC will be airing the game, with coverage set to begin Sunday night at 8:20 p.m. EST.

All but three of ESPN’s panel of football prognosticators picked the Cowboys to get the win, with Mike Ditka, Merril Hoge and Chris Mortensen the only outliers selecting the Bears.

Yahoo! Sports’ Jason Cole also went with Chicago to get the win, while the majority of Yahoo! users sided with Dallas at home.

The 0-3 Saints face a crucial Week 4 matchup in Green Bay against the 1-2 Packers, who it’s safe to say will have a chip on their shoulders this weekend.

So who do the experts like? Not surprisingly, most like the Packers. In fact, all 12 of ESPN’s NFL experts picked the Packers to win at home. The Saints got a little more love at CBS, where two of their eight pickers like the Saints to pull off the upset. Dave Richard and Josh Kastowitz went against the grain by picking New Orleans. Jason Cole at Yahoo! Sports likes the Packers to win as well.

When picking the game straight up, five of the eight CBS Sports analysts picked Tampa Bay. However, when picking against the spread, those eight analysts were evenly split with four picking Tampa Bay and four picking Washington. Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports also picked the home team, going with Tampa Bay. Cole is 0-3 when picking Redskins games, he correctly picked the Buccaneer’s games the last two weeks.

The ESPN NFL analysts are nearly evenly divided with six of the 11 who’ve submitted picks going with Tampa Bay while the other five picked the Redskins. The majority of users playing ESPN’s pick ‘em contest are also picking the Redskins. This is the first week Tampa Bay has been picked by more than two ESPN analysts. They were picked three out of a possible 36 times through the first three weeks of the season.

The Arizona Cardinals are off to a strong start in 2012 and apparently they have been impressive enough to win over all of the NFL experts.

All 11 ESPN NFL analysts who have submitted picks for the week chose the Cardinals to beat the Miami Dolphins. Arizona was one of eight teams unanimously picked. Of the 11 picking Arizona this week, just five of them picked the Cardinals last week. In fact, this week is the first time the Cardinals have been the favorite among ESPN experts. None of them picked Arizona against New England in Week 2 and only one picked them to beat Seattle in the season opener.

Week 4 in the NFL brings what should be a blowout on Thursday Night Football, two teams continuing their perfect records, and the best matchup of 1-2 and 0-3 teams in recent memory. SB Nation’s Week 4 NFL picks look to continue a stellar record so far this year -- by that I mean absolutely awful -- with these completely accurate predictions on all the games this week.

Up first is the Thursday nighter, followed by 14 more games this week.

In 14 recent games played in Atlanta, Carolina is just 3-10-1 ATS, according to the matchup report trends. They face a 7.5-point spread this week and see a total of 48.5 as of mid-week, although online sportsbook Top Bet had the number at 49, the best value for UNDER bettors so far in Week 4).

Through three games this season, a strong case could be made that the Atlanta Falcons have been the NFL’s most impressive team. With a 3-0 SU and ATS record and outscoring opponents 94-48, Atlanta has looked sharp on both sides of the ball in all three of its games.

In a week full of upsets last week, not many surprised bettors more than the Minnesota Vikings upsetting San Francisco as a 7-point home underdog.

Both of these teams have been awful at covering spreads recently. Detroit is 1-9 ATS over its last 10 games while Minnesota is 3-7-1 ATS over its last 11 games. The Lions have won each of their last three games against the Vikings (1-1-1 ATS), but the Vikings are 3-1-2 ATS over the last six meetings between these two division rivals.

The Pats are 10-2 SU the past 12 seasons at Buffalo and they come in angry on a rare two-game losing skid. And don’t forget the small 4-point spread and the fact New England dominates as a road favorite.

“New England has only suffered two-game skids twice in three seasons and each time emerged with a victory,” said Scott Winstone of Top Bet. “We expect plenty of volume on the Pats in Week 4 for sure.”

And if history is a good teacher, students will go to the sportsbook window and put their money on the Chiefs.

In 14 meetings at Kansas City, the Chargers are just 3-10-1 ATS, according to the matchup report at OddsShark.com. [ Get Twitter updates on line moves and injury updates ]

We predicted San Francisco would struggle in Week 3 in a perfect letdown spot at Minnesota.

Two 2-1 teams collide this Sunday at Metlife Stadium when the Jets host the 49ers. And many are happily throwing money behind San Francisco as a 4-point road favorite.

Despite those struggles, most NFL experts are picking the Lions to win Sunday’s contest. At ESPN, nine of their eleven experts chose Detroit, with only Merril Hoge and Mike Ditka going with the Vikings. Six of eight CBS experts also take Detroit, with Will Brinson and Dave Richard the only exceptions.

Vegas has sided with the experts, installing the Lions as a 4.5-point favorite.

Over at ESPN.com, all but one of the writers pick the Bengals, with Adam Schefter being the only man picking Jacksonville. At Yahoo! Sports both Jason Cole and the collected picks of Yahoo! users favor Cincinnati. CBS Sports picks against the spread as well as straight, and even giving the Jaguars 1.5 points only one man is willing to pick them. Will Brinson favors Jacksonville both against the spread and straight up.

Kansas City is a tough place to play, but the Chargers are likely the better team, even if they didn’t show it last week. This one is not an easy pick, although ESPN’s pundits would have you believe differently, as eight out of the 11 who have made their picks are taking the Chargers.

Meanwhile, the guys at CBS Sports were certainly more balanced, as four experts chose San Diego and four picked Kansas City.

CBS Sports made their picks straight up, with each and every expert expecting the Texans to walk away with a win. Against the spread, however, the experts expect things to go a bit differently. Only Clark Judge, Jason La Canfora and Dave Richard (three of the eight experts polled) expect for the Texans to cover the 12-point spread.

Pete Prisco feels that the game may be closer than some are expecting:

It’s hardly fair to rank NFL games based on simple matchups alone, not with replacement referees on the field doling out extra timeouts, twisting geography and letting games descend into all out cage matches. In reality, those replacement refs might be the only thing keeping it interesting in Week 4. The schedule is filled with mismatches, many of which lacked possibility in April.

And now comes news that we might not even have replacement referees to kick around anymore. Good thing our weekly game rankings are here to help you plan accordingly.

Five out of seven pickers on CBSSports like Seattle, while two ESPN experts have taken St. Louis. Merril Hoge and Seth Wickersham -- who leads all ESPN and CBS experts with 30 wins -- went with the Rams.

Last season, Seattle won both meetings with St. Louis.

You would think that these factors would lead to the Ravens being a unanimous pick to emerge victorious on Thursday, but that isn’t the case. Three of ESPN’s panel of experts have picked the Ravens to win.

Over at CBSSports.com, seven of their eight experts have the Browns covering the 13.5 point spread, but each of the experts, and CBS’ “prediction machine,” have the Ravens coming away with the win.

It’s another tough road trip for the 49ers, but the NFL oddsmakers still made San Francisco 4.5-point favorites in East Rutherford. Although the NFL picks don’t always agree with those who make the odds, the majority of the experts have penciled in the 49ers for a win this weekend.

Pete Prisco was the lone expert at CBS Sports to pick the Jets this week, as everyone else on the panel decided to go with the team that was atop most NFL power rankings before last week’s loss. ESPN’s panel is also leaning toward the 49ers, as experts including Marcus Allen, Merrill Hoge and Seth Wickersham have decided that San Francisco will be able to rebound from last week’s loss.

Sunday’s Week 4 battle has the experts going with Atlanta. Over at ESPN.com, the early consensus is for the Falcons.

On CBSSports.com, the experts are split. However, those analysts are picking the game with the spread, and the Falcons are listed as 7.5-point favorites.

Over at ESPN.com, the three experts (and Accuscore) that have made picks all side with Bill Belichick’s team to rebound on the road.

The men at CBSsports.com have also made their selections, favoring the Patriots by a 4-to-3 margin both against the spread and straight up. Despite the Bills being the home team, many seem to feel New England is due and desperate not to fall two games under .500.