2013 NFL mock draft: Mel Kiper blames possibility of trades for uncertainty

Even draft guru Mel Kiper has had trouble predicting the outcome of Thursday’s first round due to several teams struggling with what they need.

by Jason Garrison

Apr 25, 2013, 12:00 PM UTC

Joe Robbins

With one day before the 2013 NFL Draft in New York City, ESPN analyst Mel Kiper released his final mock draft, noting that there may be updates in the short period of time before the Chiefs go on the clock at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday.

This has not been a comfortable year to do mock drafts. Put it this way: When you talk to teams and know they’re still dealing with a lot of internal debate about the best picks -- the day before the draft -- you’re not exactly planning on going 32 for 32. What I do think is we’ll see most picks match up with where I have players ranked in terms of value, at least early on. But, as my friend Adam Schefter mentioned today, once that first trade happens, all bets are off. And most of us feel a trade will happen early.

Kiper's first two picks were the same as they have been for a long time: Texas A&M offensive tackle Luke Joeckel to the Chiefs at No. 1 and Central Michigan offensive tackle Eric Fisher to the Jaguars at No. 2. Both teams finished the 2012 season with 2-14 records, and both teams are desperate for help on the offensive line.

Kiper then sent Florida defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd to the Raiders, though he said this is where the trading could begin. The Raiders don't have a second-round pick, as they're still paying the Bengals for Carson Palmer, and they know that any team looking to grab the next best offensive tackle, Lane Johnson, could move up to No. 3 to make sure they get their man.

Fair warning at this slot -- the Raiders could certainly trade down. It makes a ton of sense if they do. They don’t have a second-round pick, and any team who wants that third tackle knows this is the spot to get to. That said, if the Raiders stay here, Floyd makes a lot of sense because of his versatility, potential and high ceiling. Given that it’s not exactly set which base defense the Raiders will operate out of in 2013, adding versatile defensive line talent also adds scheme flexibility. This is a max-effort player who can power through defenders and has enough quickness to target gaps, disrupting both the pass and the run.

If the Raiders don't trade back for more picks, Kiper has Johnson going to the Eagles at No. 4. He then predicted defensive end Ezekiel Ansah will go to the Lions and cornerback Dee Milliner will go to the Browns. Outside linebacker Dion Jordan was then picked to go to the Cardinals, guard Jonathan Cooper to the Bills, linebacker Barkevious Mingo to the Jets and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson to the Titans.

Kiper then predicts that the Chargers will select D.J. Fluker with the No. 11 pick, but believes that they would rather move up in the draft for a shot at Johnson.

Now, I really think San Diego would like to move up and put itself in position to take Lane Johnson. The problem is they might have to make a deal with the Raiders to get that done, and the Raiders are going to ask for everything but the baby blue jerseys to do that. Fluker at least fills a need, is an underrated pass-blocker and simply mauls in the run game. But again, I’m not convinced San Diego will stay at this spot if the three left tackles are gone.

The rest of the draft seems fairly cut and dry after the uncertainty in the top 11. The rest of the picks are as follows:

Dolphins - Chance Warmack
Jets - Tavon Austin
Panthers - Star Lotulelei
Saints - Jarvis Jones
Rams - Kenny Vaccaro
Steelers - Tyler Eifert
Cowboys - Sylvester Williams
Giants - D.J. Hayden
Bears - Manti Te'o
Bengals - Eddie Lacy
Rams - Cordarrelle Patterson
Vikings - Robert Woods
Colts - Xavier Rhodes
Vikings - Alec Ogletree
Packers - Datone Jones
Texans - DeAndre Hopkins
Broncos - Tank Carradine
Patriots - Desmond Trufant
Falcons - Robert Alford
49ers - Matt Elam
Ravens - Kevin Minter

The 2013 NFL Draft is bound to be an interesting one. While there are always surprises, the entire first round seems to be shrouded. The lack of star power, which was provided by players like Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton over the last couple years, may be what is causing the uncertainty.