In case you don’t remember from last year, I’d like to re-introduce something to you that I’ve been doing over at Bolts from the Blue for the last four years: The NFL power rankings consensus, and well, the name kind of speaks for itself.
2013 Advanced NFL Power Rankings, Week 1: 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos top the rankings at start of regular season
The 2013 NFL regular season is upon us! On this, the greatest day of the year, we go around and see what the perception is of all 32 NFL teams.
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Simply put: I troll the web for various NFL power rankings, load them up into my computer and crunch the numbers. I then make observations based on what the numbers tell me. Don't worry, it's nothing too complicated, and I'll walk you through the various displays, explaining as we go along.
Division Averages
Before we get to looking at where all the teams rank, let’s take look at the bigger picture in the NFL. This table takes the average rankings for each team, then averages the rankings of each team in the division. It’s used as a way of showing where the tougher and weaker divisions lie each week.
| Division | Avg Ranking |
|---|---|
| NFC West | 11.6667 |
| NFC North | 14.1389 |
| AFC North | 14.5000 |
| NFC South | 14.9444 |
| NFC East | 15.8611 |
| AFC South | 19.2222 |
| AFC West | 20.5278 |
| AFC East | 21.1389 |
Observations
- It wasn’t all that long ago when the NFC West was the laughingstock of the league. Now look at it.
- In fact, look at the NFC on the whole: all four NFC divisions have an average ranking better than 16. The bottom three conferences are in the AFC, and it’s not even close. The AFC North is closer to being in fifth place than the AFC South is to being in fourth place.
- The only thing keeping the AFC West out of the cellar is Denver holding everyone else up, and the Jets pulling everyone in the East down. Although, the Bills aren’t doing the East any favors either.
Stock Rising
This table is kind of self-explanatory: it shows which teams have moved up the most this week compared to last week.
| Team | Preseason Week 1 Average | Week 1 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 28.500 | 25.222 | 3.278 |
| CHI | 16.000 | 13.444 | 2.556 |
| NO | 13.667 | 11.778 | 1.889 |
| WAS | 12.833 | 11.111 | 1.722 |
| DET | 22.500 | 21.111 | 1.389 |
Observations
- Not much movement is to be expected going from preseason to the regular season, unless a team suffers some catastrophic injuries, not much changes.
- Though, some optimism is starting to creep into Cleveland.
Stock Falling
| Team | Preseason Week 1 Average | Week 1 Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 19.833 | 22.556 | -2.723 |
| SDG | 23.833 | 25.889 | -2.056 |
| PIT | 15.000 | 16.444 | -1.444 |
| IND | 11.167 | 12.556 | -1.389 |
| NYG | 11.167 | 12.444 | -1.277 |
Subjective Average
We’ll start off with the Subjective Average. These rankings are the ones that have actual people ranking the teams based on their gut feelings. You’ll see in a moment that some of these sites may even just throw darts at a board, or have a chicken pecking at numbers. I take all those rankings and average them together, then sort the table based on the average ranking. This method evens out the peaks and valleys and allows us to get a more reliable “big picture” view of the perception of where teams rank in the league.
| Subjective | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||
| 49ers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.444 | 0.056  | ||
| Seahawks | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.556 | 0.277 | ||
| Broncos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2.667 | -0.334  | ||
| Falcons | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4.444 | -0.444 | ||
| Packers | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5.667 | 0.333 | ||
| Patriots | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5.778 | 0.055 | ||
| Ravens | 8 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 7.333 | -1.166 | ||
| Texans | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 7.667 | 0.666 | ||
| Bengals | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 9.000 | -0.833 | ||
| Redskins | 10 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 11.111 | 1.722 | ||
| Saints | 13 | 16 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 11.778 | 1.889 | ||
| Giants | 12 | 15 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 12.444 | -1.277 | ||
| Colts | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 12.556 | -1.389 | ||
| Bears | 14 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13.444 | 2.556 | ||
| Cowboys | 18 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 15.889 | -0.722 | ||
| Vikings | 17 | 10 | 18 | 13 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 16.333 | 0.167 | ||
| Steelers | 16 | 20 | 12 | 20 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 16.444 | -1.444 | ||
| Rams | 15 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 20 | 12 | 17.111 | -0.444 | ||
| Dolphins | 20 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 20.222 | -0.389 | ||
| Panthers | 23 | 28 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 21.000 | 0.500 | ||
| Lions | 21 | 18 | 28 | 21 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 21.111 | 1.389 | ||
| Chiefs | 19 | 19 | 24 | 27 | 20 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 24 | 21.667 | 0.833 | ||
| Buccaneers | 22 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 20 | 23 | 28 | 22.556 | -2.723 | ||
| Eagles | 25 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 24.000 | 1.000 | ||
| Browns | 28 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 20 | 25.222 | 3.278 | ||
| Cardinals | 26 | 29 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 29 | 23 | 25.556 | 0.277 | ||
| Chargers | 24 | 26 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 25.889 | -2.056 | ||
| Titans | 27 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 26 | 26.000 | -1.000 | ||
| Bills | 30 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 25 | 27 | 28.333 | 1.000 | ||
| Jets | 32 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30.222 | -0.555 | ||
| Jaguars | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 30.667 | 0.000  | ||
| Raiders | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 31.889 | -1.222 | ||
Observations:
- Continuing last season’s trend, seven of the bottom 10 teams are in the AFC. Eight of the bottom 11 are in the AFC. So really, 72 percent of the bottom third is made up of AFC teams. And in that bottom third are all three AFC West teams, except Denver.
- The 49ers are the closest to a consensus top pick as we can get right now. Denver and Seattle are keeping things close in the battle for second place. The Broncos did drop slightly since the start of preseason, likely thanks to several injuries.
- Convenient: The top 12 teams are evenly split 6-6 between NFC and AFC teams. I really wonder how many purposefully try to keep things even.
- The Bengals at No. 5? Sleeper pick?
- The Rams are ranked ~17. In 2011, St. Louis was ranked ~18 to start the season and finished the season ranked dead last. In 2012, they started the season ranked ~29, and finished the season ranked 17.500. For Rams fans, I hope this isn’t part of a cycle.
- Interesting that the Jaguars’ ranking didn’t move at all, even though the Raiders passed them.
- Looks like ESPN is trying to troll New York. Well, either that or they’re still upset the Jets released Tebow.
Subjective Standard Deviation
Put simply, Standard Deviation is a tool in statistics to measure how much variance there is in a set of numbers. To put more simply: I use it to look at who’s ranked the most- and least-consistently. In Standard Deviation, the lower the number, the more consistent the values in the set. For our purposes, this means the lower the Standard Deviation, the more consistent the rankings. The opposite is true too: the higher the number, the less consistent the rankings.
This table is sorted by most-consistently ranked to least-consistently ranked.
| Subjective | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | | | |  | | |||
| Raiders | 31 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0.314 | -0.933  | ||
| Jaguars | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 31 | 0.667 | -1.128 | ||
| 49ers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.685 | 0.185  | ||
| Jets | 32 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 0.786 | -0.914 | ||
| Broncos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0.943 | 0.198 | ||
| Ravens | 8 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 1.155 | -0.617 | ||
| Bears | 14 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 1.343 | -2.354 | ||
| Colts | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 1.343 | 0.445 | ||
| Seahawks | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.423 | -0.149 | ||
| Texans | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 1.491 | 0.548 | ||
| Patriots | 6 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1.548 | 0.204 | ||
| Bills | 30 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 25 | 27 | 1.564 | 0.458 | ||
| Falcons | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1.571 | 0.754 | ||
| Packers | 5 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 1.633 | 0.633 | ||
| Eagles | 25 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 1.700 | 0.409 | ||
| Chargers | 24 | 26 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 1.912 | 0.568 | ||
| Giants | 12 | 15 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 1.950 | 0.737 | ||
| Buccaneers | 22 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 20 | 23 | 28 | 2.266 | -0.001 | ||
| Browns | 28 | 24 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 26 | 20 | 2.299 | 0.591 | ||
| Titans | 27 | 22 | 22 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 28 | 26 | 2.357 | -1.059 | ||
| Steelers | 16 | 20 | 12 | 20 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 2.409 | 1.118 | ||
| Cowboys | 18 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 2.424 | -0.310 | ||
| Redskins | 10 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2.424 | 0.390 | ||
| Bengals | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 2.494 | 1.281 | ||
| Cardinals | 26 | 29 | 20 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 29 | 23 | 2.753 | 0.209 | ||
| Rams | 15 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 20 | 12 | 2.923 | 0.566 | ||
| Chiefs | 19 | 19 | 24 | 27 | 20 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 24 | 3.055 | 0.993 | ||
| Vikings | 17 | 10 | 18 | 13 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 16 | 3.055 | 1.671 | ||
| Panthers | 23 | 28 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 3.127 | 0.910 | ||
| Lions | 21 | 18 | 28 | 21 | 17 | 20 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 3.143 | 0.329 | ||
| Dolphins | 20 | 25 | 23 | 14 | 23 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 3.190 | 0.646 | ||
| Saints | 13 | 16 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 3.521 | 0.272 | ||
Observations:
- 75 percent of teams (24 of 32) had their Standard Deviation rise this week. Chances are that’s because I have more sources than last time.
- As is typical, the teams at the far ends of the spectrum are more consistently ranked. This is inherently the nature of just using raw Standard Deviation. I’ll find a way to normalize these numbers.
- It is interesting that the Saints are so inconsistent in their ranking. Pundits have them anywhere from 18th all the way up to fifth. That’s quite a swing.
That’s it for this week. Next week after games are actually played, we’ll bring in the objective rankings sites and really start to compare numbers.
Sources
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