Don’t be an idiot: NFL picks against the spread, Week 7

There have been so many awful backdoor covers over the past two weeks. I'm not going to pretend that I haven't been on the winning side of these once or twice (see Kirk Cousins' second game-costing interception against the Cardinals), but I've lost more than my fair share of these. One thing that I'll never do is complain about how the team that I picked was the "correct" side because even though Vegas sets some sucker lines to get all the rubes to bet on an overrated team, sometimes teams with winning records do things like return interceptions for touchdowns against bad quarterbacks.

That said, those backdoor covers were some bullshit. I had pretty much already spent my profits from the Jets. When you make money gambling on Geno Smith, that's not money you save for your kids' college tuition, that's money you take to your closest, dampest bar and order tequila even though you don't really like tequila but there's a guy in a cool cowboy hat drinking it there and you want to be a cool customer too.

Also, the Rams. Come on, Rams. I'm not betting on the Rams for the rest of the year because they cannot hold a margin of defeat, much less a lead. Has Jeff Fisher ever been a good coach? I'm dead serious here. The only good teams that I can remember him coaching never had good offenses and had great defensive coordinators in their primes. He's one Music City Miracle away from being out of the league six years ago.

Do you think these two teams are going to be talking about how badly they beat the Bucs? I would. The truth is that any team looks great coming off a win against Tampa Bay, so if this game was being played three weeks ago I might have picked the Falcons and that would make me an idiot. The Falcons are not the same team as they were two years ago even though they have Julio Jones back. They are an average team.

The Ravens' addition of Steve Smith made them likely wild card contenders.

I have to take my hat off to the Seahawks for their ability to keep their Percy Harvin problems in-house. Two of their best players got into a brutal fight the night before the Super Bowl and no one ever found out about it. That's unheard of. It would have been the week's biggest story, but instead they managed to keep it a secret, and it didn't seem to hurt their performance.

DALLAS (-5.5) over New York Giants

Charlie Whitehurst is a gift. He is the most backup NFL quarterback of all time and he loves it just as much as we do.

For those unfamiliar with how the Washington team operates, it goes something like this: lose every road game, and then absolutely destroy bad teams at home. Kirk Cousins has played terribly at times this season and isn't exactly getting ringing endorsements from his coaching staff. The same people who thought Cousins should start are the same people who are now looking for Colt McCoy. Being an avid supporter of backup quarterbacks isn't a one-and-done thing, it's a lifestyle. Once every 10 years you get a Tom Brady or Willie Beamen situation, but every other time you get a Kellen Clemens.

Say what you want about Jim Irsay, but the man's family have been supporters of the Colts for the long haul, especially when you consider that the trip from Baltimore to Indianapolis is nine hours.

The Saints have the only owner who can actually be considered a bandwagon fan. Bandwagon Saints fans are bad enough considering that the team has plenty of real fans that have dealt with decades of absolute futility, and you should always bet against people who adopt a culture that USED to have it really tough so they can feel like they've been a part of earning their new success.

The Saints are entering their prime overrated zone of being five years out from winning a Super Bowl, and therefore still being considered a top five NFL team by idiots worldwide. Pundits and fans alike keep thinking that this will finally be the week that the Saints explosive offense will emerge again, but here's a hint: it's not going to happen until Jimmy Graham is healthy.

Which Patriots team is going to show up this week? The good one on a bad week, or the bad one on a good week?