I still have my head above water for the season, barely. Last week I fell for a couple of classic suckers’ bets because I’m a complete amateur and took some road favorites that ended up getting blown out (Atlanta and New Orleans). A friend of mine told me “beware of Greeks bearing gifts” and I have to admit it was a bit of a Trojan horse situation.
Don’t be an idiot: NFL picks against the spread for Week 5
Here’s my overall strategy when it comes to betting: Imagine the person that you would hate to watch football with the most out of anyone in the world. Imagine how they would bet these games. And do the opposite.
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Since it’s Week 5, it’s time to start betting games based on what idiots have seen teams do this season. Up until this point I’ve been basing my idiots’ guide on the overall standings from last year to figure out what dummies thought. Now we have a big enough body of work where I can say that idiots think the Chargers are going to win the Super Bowl. I might be a week late in implementing this strategy, but better late than never.
This week I’m off to a blazing start with Green Bay covering nicely. The rest of the picks are below.
Last week: 6-7
Season: 31-30
Thursday night game: GREEN BAY (-10) over Minnesota
NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is coming off an unexpected win against Pittsburgh. New Orleans is coming off a blowout loss. Tampa is absolute horseballs in the division this year.
The Saints looked terrible last week, and a lot of idiots watch Sunday Night Football just because they keep hoping Carrie Underwood will show up at some point during the game to sing the NFL’s little football/verizon anthem a second time. New Orleans is going to get its act together at home with a little bit of help from Tampa’s bad, bad, football team. Rob Ryan plays better when he gets to pass out and wake up in his own house to get ready for game day.
St. Louis (+7) over PHILADELPHIA
The Rams are pretty bad, and the Eagles are pretty good except for in their last game. Typically when I’m imagining the world’s dumbest football fan, he’s either a Steelers or Eagles fan. Pennsylvania is a breeding ground for stupidity as far as I’m concerned. Name one good thing that Pennsylvania has ever produced. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Constitution doesn’t count.
DETROIT (-7) over Buffalo
I admit I will be cheering ironically for Kyle Orton, and that makes me an idiot.
Arizona (+7) over DENVER
How the hell is Arizona winning when 75 percent of fans can’t name their running back or quarterback? Bruce Arians is pretty damn good once you get past that whole “no stretching, no water breaks and I’m going to cut a guy in front of the whole team” stuff.
Idiots love to bet on superstar quarterbacks.
Denver is really good, especially at home, but they’re not blowing people out like they were last year.
JACKSONVILLE (+6.5) over Pittsburgh
JACKSONVILLE IS DUE DAMMIT!!!!!!!!
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Kansas City
Deion Sanders is pretty much a football idiot. I mean, don’t get me wrong, he’s one of the best players of all time on the field, but I could probably make a lot of money just asking him for his picks against the spread and then betting the opposite.
Anyway, Sanders has been going out of his way to parrot whatever Michael Crabtree is telling him is going on in San Francisco, and we’re supposed to believe the team is garbage after a big win against the Eagles? I’m sure there’s something to the report, but I like the 49ers by a TD.
Kansas City beat a bad New England team in prime time, and I always love to bet against teams coming off of big Monday Night games.
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) against New York Jets
Changed this one last minute because I remembered Fireman Ed is a Jets fan and I can’t stand being on the same side of history as that guy.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Atlanta
This is my WTF line of the week. I would think this would be more like a -1 or a pick ‘em, but someone knows a whole lot more about football than I do, and I’m going with them.
Houston (+6) over DALLAS
Baltimore (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
CAROLINA (+2.5) over Chicago
TENNESSEE (-2) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (pick ‘em) over NEW ENGLAND
Tom Brady looked awful on Monday night, didn’t he? He can’t possibly look that bad two games in a row, right? Well he already has. Brady has been hot garbage this year, in part because he’s not getting much help from his offensive line.
Every NFL idiot is betting on New England because it’s hard to let go of a dynasty. These are the same people who still watch the Simpsons. Never trust those guys.
WASHINGTON (+7) over Seattle
“12” jerseys are the new Cowboys starter jackets. They’re the new “I’m going to be the Hornets in NBA Jam.” The Seahawks are good and they’re going to see a lot of the action if they stay at a 7-point favorite, but I’m taking the Redskins at home.
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