Don’t be an idiot: Week 2 NFL picks against the spread

One trick to sports betting is to not be stupid.

Sep 14, 2014, 1:35 PM UTC

Ronald Martinez

Here’s my overall strategy when it comes to betting: Imagine the person that you would hate to watch football with the most out of anyone in the world. Imagine how they would bet these games. And do the opposite. I call it my “don’t be an idiot” betting guide.

Last week I told you that I am almost exactly .500 when it comes to the betting strategy of imaging the dumbest NFL fan possible and how they would bet and then do the opposite. I also told you that you should ditch me immediately after I hit a hot streak. That said I went 12-4 in week 1 and now I’m up a lot of money and you could be too if you followed my technique of picking against a hypothetical moron. Now it’s probably too late as I’m sure I will regress back to .500 with a 4-12 week this time around, but I’m going forward with this strategy anyways.

More odds and lines can be found at OddsShark.

*Home teams are in caps*

We put the Thursday night pick in here for purposes of keeping the overall record. It hasn’t been altered since that game.

BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Pittsburgh

There are Steelers bars in every city in America, and every week Steelers fans meet there to mute the television that's carrying the local game, and blast the Steelers' boring-ass division matchup instead. Every Steelers fan in the bar will make sure to mention to each other that "you know, there's a Steelers bar everywhere you go!" These are the idiots you must bet against. I love Baltimore here by a field goal.

BUFFALO (-.5) over Miami

WASHINGTON (-6.5) over Jacksonville

When all else fails I look to message boards to guide me. When it comes down to a Washington/Jacksonville matchup, I want to know which fanbase will be more apoplectic in the event of a loss, and then I want to bet against that team. In this case I feel that Washington fans are more pessimistic about their teams chances than even Jags fans are, so that’s why I’m going with Washington. Always bet against the message boards, people.

Most idiots will put a whole lot of stock in the first half lead that the Jaguars were able to build against the Eagles and won't focus at all on how they lost it in spectacular fashion.

NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) over Arizona

Fire up the Ryan Nassib bandwagon. The Giants are coming off a bad primetime loss and the Cardinals are coming off a primetime win. This is going to stick in the mind of the loud fan at the bar who was complaining about his fantasy team because he started Antonio Gates out of sheer loyalty, and that person is not someone you want to trust with gambling advice.

Both teams are on a short week, but only Arizona is travelling West to East in an early game. Good Eli will show up for at least a quarter this time, I hope.

MINNESOTA (+3.5) over New England

I just can't bet on the Patriots.

CLEVELAND (+7) over New Orleans

A key metric in my betting strategy is Madden ratings. Let’s think back to the great philosopher and football genius, Plato. In his construct “The Cave,” if instead of watching shadows, the people had been playing Madden, they would be so terrible at betting on football games. Madden always makes the good teams too good and the bad teams too bad.

The Browns (75) and the Saints (86) have the highest difference in Madden rankings of any game this week. The subjects of the NFL version of "The Cave" would have bet their life savings on Drew Brees and the Saints to cover the spread even knowing that it was a road game. Take the Browns.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Detroit

TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Dallas

I hate this game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Titans found out a way to win by exactly four and a half points somehow. Both teams are probably undervalued in the eyes of the public. The Cowboys, because they're so much fun to shit on, are generally thought of to be terrible. The Titans, on the other hand, are the Titans.

It's because of this "they're the Titans, they can't be good" mentality that I'm going to ride them into the ground this year. Idiots nationwide are joining hands and assuming a regression is in order after Tennessee demolished the Chiefs last week. This might very well happen if Jake Locker gets hurt, but I'm picking the Titans big over the Cowboys.

Atlanta (+5.5) over CINCINNATI

Cincinnati is the worst good team in the league and Atlanta is the best bad team in the league. Take Atlanta.

Seattle (-5.5) over SAN DIEGO

This pick is the exception to the rule. Just about everyone should be picking the Seahawks with this spread. Normally I would go contrarian here and say that I would have expected this spread to be 10 points, but I can't see Seattle winning this game by less than a touchdown.

(This is me completely going off the rails away from my strategy here because I'm so cocky from my Week 1. In this case, I am the idiot so please take the Chargers.)

TAMPA BAY (-5.5) over St. Louis

Kansas City (+13.5) over DENVER

I'm banking that a lot of people didn't watch the second half against the Colts last week and went to bed thinking the Broncos could beat any team in the league by 20 points except for the Seahawks.

OAKLAND (+3.5) over Houston

New York Jets (+8.5) over GREEN BAY

Idiots look at this game as a matchup between Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers. Advantage Packers.

HOWEVER, Green Bay’s offensive line is makeshift at best and Rex Ryan is going to confuse the hell out of them. Don’t get me wrong here I think Green Bay wins, but I don’t think the Packers win by nine.