OK, the rats aren’t running off my ship just yet. I figured I was due for a disastrous Week 2 after I basically owned Las Vegas right off the bat. I’ll take a basic 8-8 week any day, especially when I’m cooling down from a blazing 12-4 start. In fact, I probably wouldn’t have wanted to put up monster weeks back-to-back. It’s important to schedule a cool down so I don’t pull anything. It’s a long season and I’m going to need my health.
Don’t be an idiot: NFL Week 3 picks against the spread
Here’s my overall strategy when it comes to betting: Imagine the person that you would hate to watch football with the most out of anyone in the world. Imagine how they would bet these games. And do the opposite.
Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Looking at the schedule here, I am so glad that week three actually has games that I want to watch. Last week we had great Sunday and Monday night games, but this week we really get into some good divisional match-ups during the day games.
Last week’s picks were 8-8 because I got cocky with my Seattle pick against San Diego and went against my strategy. I told you at the time that I was making a huge mistake and you shouldn’t have listened to me.
But the fact that I made such a dumb mistake last week will actually make me stronger in the long run. Now that we’ve had a couple of weeks together, I feel comfortable confiding in you that for most of these I’m just betting against my own basic instincts. Through many years of trial-and-error betting the NFL, I have figured out that my first reaction to betting on football is usually wrong. I am the idiot that I am betting against, but isn’t the wisest man the one who knows he knows nothing?
2014 record against the spread: 20-12
This week’s games (home team is in caps)
Tampa Bay +7 over ATLANTA (Ed. note, pick was submitted prior to Thursday’s game).
Oakland (+14) over NEW ENGLAND
Backdoor city: population Raiders.
Oakland is probably the worst team in the league. They got blown out by Houston at home. This week they're taking on the New England Patriots, who most people of gambling age remember for what they did 8-15 years ago. This is a very different New England team, and Tom Brady is a very different quarterback. He's still very good, but this is a spread straight out of 2007 when they had Welker, Moss, Bruschi, and a younger Wilfork. I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats built up a lead well over the 14 point spread at some point during the game, but this feels like a backdoor cover.
NEW ORLEANS (-9.5) over Minnesota
Expect Minnesota to get all of the "I'm going to stand on a table and tell the world how I got spanked as a kid" action on its side. I think the majority of the public will be betting on the Saints here, but the lion's share of the money from people I don't want to hang out with is going to be on the Vikings.
Sidenote: I have genuinely loved the reactions to the Peterson case where people say, “This is why America’s getting soft now a days. We can’t even discipline our own children any more!!! I mean yeah he probably crossed a line here but ...” Yes, that’s the whole point. No one is taking away your sacred spankings.
It’s also important to remember that the Saints’ maligned defense will be playing against professional starting quarterback Matt Cassel in the Superdome’s opener.
Tennessee (+7) over CINCINNATI
The sheer lack of star power on the Titans is exceptional. I can't name a single defensive player off the top of my head. Is Michael Griffin still playing for them? (I honestly performed a Google search here). Good, OK I know him. It also means that dumbasses coast to coast will never bet on them. Therefore, Tennessee will have to peel off eight straight wins before they get enough national recognition for me to stop picking them on a weekly basis.
JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Indianapolis
I will always bet on a home underdog if they are getting more than 6.5 points because I live my life by a code, something you normals might not understand. This Jacksonville offense is a special kind of bad, but there's always the possibility of Toby Gerhart not getting tackled by the line of scrimmage and Blake Bortles getting put in to score a meaningless last minute touchdown.
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Washington
Kirk Cousins came in and played well against the hapless Jags last week, and a lot of people who weren't unfortunate enough to watch his three starts last year are going to overvalue the hell out of him. He's got a line that can be manhandled on the right side, and the Washington pass defense is bad, bad, bad. Brandon Meriweather will be lucky to last a half without doing an impression of Scottish Soccer Hooligan weekly and diving head first into Darren Sproles' helmet. DeAngelo Hall might give up two touchdowns on double-moves.
SEATTLE (-4.5) over Denver
There’s always a tendency to bet on Manning during the regular season, but I’m going to take Seattle at home coming off a loss.
MIAMI (-4.5) over Kansas City
San Francisco (-3) over ARIZONA
I LOVE betting on any team coming off a primetime loss against a team coming off a big-market win. Colin Kaepernick looked so bad in the fourth quarter last week that stupid people are starting to think that he’s been focusing too much on developing his six-pack than his mechanics. Arizona’s defensive backs are good, but their d-line and linebackers are missing some key elements that should let Kaepernick tuck and run.
NEW YORK GIANTS (+2.5) over Houston
Idiots across the nation think that J.J. Watt is worth 6.5 points by himself because he caught a touchdown pass last week. Any time a defensive player catches a 1-yard touchdown it's like it's worth twice as much. It's like people are conditioned to think that just because these top .01 percent of athletes in the world play on the other side of the ball they should look like a horse trying to catch a Frisbee when they get a ball thrown to them. I am basing my pick here 100 percent on the fact that dumb NFL fans won't be able to tuck their Watt-boner long enough to put their hard-earned money on sulking Eli and disappointed father Tom Coughlin.
BUFFALO (-2) over San Diego
These are two pretty evenly matched teams, and all things being equal, people who are bad at betting on football will favor a city with perfect weather over a city that literally feels like getting shot in the balls with dippin’ dot buckshot.
DETROIT (-1.5) over Green Bay
I have no idea why I'm picking Detroit here. Their offense is great, and their defense is average. Kind of the same deal with Green Bay. So I guess what I'm trying to say is that the stink of the last 50 years of Lions football along with the very real ghost of Brett Favre is enough to drive most shirtless drunks towards the Packers.
ST. LOUIS (+1) over Dallas
This could be very fun to watch the Rams' defensive line pressuring Tony Romo into some bad throws.
CLEVELAND (+1.5) over Baltimore
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s another town that gets the benefit of the doubt when it really shouldn’t. The Steelers’ offense is painful to watch. If it weren’t for Le’Veon Bell they would be bottom-tier. I have no idea how Todd Haley is still their offensive coordinator, but I’m so glad he is. There’s no chance Ben and Todd are even on speaking terms by now. That meeting room must just be the most aggressively passive aggressive place in the world.
A great rule of thumb for betting is generally to bet against whichever team has a dumbass chant that they’ve appropriated and claim as their own.
Here we go, Stillers, here we go!.
NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) over Chicago
This is my "someone knows something" pick of the week. It's a Monday night game and the Jets are somehow favored to win by a field goal. I have no idea why or how that could possibly happen. Usually, when I see a line that is more than five points off from what I thought it would be, I just let it remind me that I am an idiot too and I should go ahead and put my money on how wrong I was.
Back to this stupid point spread. Did Jay Cutler pack up his shit and take a Winnebago into the Alaskan wild or something this week? I still don’t understand this line at all which is why I’m betting against myself and taking the Jets.
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