Week 4 picks against the spread

Hey everyone, welcome back to “Don’t be an idiot,” where I take my medicine for leading you astray last week. The good news is I didn’t miss EVERY game, but it was still an unmitigated disaster for my pocketbook.

Thanks editor, because a lot of people might have thought that I was trying to pull a fast one by sneaking my Tampa Bay +7 pick after the most lopsided defeat of the NFL season. Rest assured, that losing pick was made fair and square.

Here’s the deal: I told you to stop listening to my advice after my 12-4 Week 1 bonanza. You have to admit I was right about that. But that coin has two sides now, so you should START listening to my picks again now that I’ve been sufficiently humbled by a Week 3 bed crapping.

Last week: 5-11

Season to date: 25-23

On to the picks.

Home team is in caps:

Thursday night-

New York Giants (+3.5) over WASHINGTON

Jacksonville is DUE dammit. One good trick to gambling is to ride the terrible teams until they finally cover and then you look like a genius for picking them. In this case I think most idiots will be more inclined to bet against the Jaguars just because of their current #brand, while overlooking Blake Bortles as a huge upgrade at the most important position.

San Diego is good in that average, boring kind of way. The defense is solid and Philip Rivers hasn’t had midseason Tommy John surgery without telling his coach yet, so people will continue to bet the Chargers against really bad teams like the Jags.

I remain committed to betting on Tennessee to somehow not lose by as much as most people think they’re going to lose by. I believe in you guys!

Who has two thumbs and a dangerous short-term memory?

I like to bet against the Steelers whenever possible, but especially when they are playing the worst team in the league. Lovie told the media that his team had a scar after their 42-point loss to Atlanta, which should make them feel right at home in a town like Pittsburgh that has more manufacturing accidents per capita than any other city {citation needed}.

Casey Matthews is going to have to try and chase down Colin Kaepernick at some point this weekend. That should be reason enough to bet the 49ers. San Francisco is going to play like a desperate team, and meanwhile the Eagles feel like they’re in the catbird’s seat of the NFC East.

I think the betting pendulum has swung on the Eagles. They are being universally praised for doing minor shit like changing from kale tostadas to acai berry smoothies, like their offense is the NFL equivalent of a swagger flavored gatorade. Nick Foles as the leader of an offense that’s considered ultra-modern will never not be hilarious.

San Francisco isn’t that good, by the way.

Oh God, this is the game we decided to send over to London? If we didn’t beat England’s ass in the Revolution all by ourselves with old-fashioned American gumption, they would have outright kicked us out of their empire for sending this shit over to them. It would be the London tea party and they’d be dumping Darren McFadden’s medical tape into the Thames River.

Make no mistake about it -- this is probably the best 0-3 Oakland Raiders team that we’ve seen in the past 10 years. Miami is an absolute clusterf*ck right now and shouldn’t be favored against anyone even though this game is the ultimate East Coast travel game for the Raiders. Joe Philbin is actively undermining his starting quarterback, and this is a great opportunity to bet against a really bad team that is giving up points.

Road game? Cam Newton injured? I don’t see how this spread makes any sense especially given the transitive properties of football. The Ravens destroyed the Steelers in Baltimore, Pittsburgh destroyed Carolina in Charlotte, and then Carolina travels to Baltimore? This game doesn’t make any sense but this is the easiest lock of all time, which terrifies me.

I think Vegas is setting their lines wrong this week as a joke.

I’m never this confident about anything in my life. I’m terrified.

Seriously they’re giving money away.

Ok now back to lines that actually make sense. The Bears look great so far with the exception of their banged up secondary. The only things preventing me from betting the title to my house is that the Bears have a pretty good offense of their own and they’re playing at home.

People are going to be about four weeks behind on the devaluation of the New England Patriots. I’m thinking about putting a money-line bet on the Chiefs for this one. The Patriots are going to be getting about two points too many for most of this season. They’ll burn you once or twice, but betting against them is going to be a cash cow.