The New England Patriots (1-2) travel to the Midwest to face the Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) in a primetime matchup on Monday Night Football to end Week 4. The Patriots have thrived in the weekly spotlight, going 11-3 on MNF during the last 10 seasons, but will face a huge challenge in playing at one of the league's most hostile environments in Arrowhead Stadium.
Patriots vs. Chiefs 2014: Kansas City hosts New England on ‘Monday Night Football’
Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking for a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Patriots and Chiefs.
Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
New England is coming off an ugly 16-9 win over the Oakland Raiders, a game that exposed the unexpected offensive struggles of this Patriots team. For the second time in three games the Patriots failed to gain 300 yards of offense, and scored just one touchdown in four red zone attempts. The Patriots might be staring at a 1-2 record if not for their defense, which kept the Raiders out of the end zone and forced a key turnover near the goal line to preserve the win.
The Chiefs picked up their first win of the season in Week 3, routing the Miami Dolphins on the road, 34-15. The win was even more impressive considering that it came with All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles and six other starters on the sideline with various injuries. Backup RB Knile Davis had a big game with a career-high 132 yards on 32 carries, while Joe McKnight had two touchdown catches.
Digits
When you think of great offenses in today’s NFL, the Patriots are usually one of the first teams that come to mind. They have ranked lower than eighth in total offense just once in the past decade (11th in 2006) and have been the league’s top scoring team three times in the last seven seasons.
Those explosive offensive numbers are nowhere to be found on this year's Patriots team. New England ranks last in the NFL in yards per play (4.3) and many are questioning whether Tom Brady is still an elite quarterback. Brady is completing a career-worst 59 percent of his passes and ranks 33rd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt (5.5). Brady is really struggling with the deep ball this season despite his reputation as one of the most accurate downfield throwers. He is just 1 of 13 on attempts targeted 20 yards or more downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. That's the worst accuracy rate of any quarterback with at least seven attempts.
If the Chiefs are going to beat the Patriots, they’ll need to turn up the pressure on defense. Winning the turnover battle is key to winning a football game, which is why the Chiefs face a huge challenge in beating the Pats. Kansas City is the only team that has not forced a turnover this season, and ranks last in the NFL in turnover margin (-5). The Patriots, meanwhile, are tied for the best turnover differential in the league (+6) and the most takeaways (8). The Chiefs likely won’t be able to get much offense through the air, as the Patriots rank second in the NFL in opponent Total QBR (33.9), so they’ll have to lean heavily on a running game that might be without its workhorse Charles, who was limited in practice.
Who to watch
Patriots wide receivers not named Julian Edelman - Edelman has been Brady's most reliable target this season, while the Pats' other receivers have struggled to catch the ball. Brady is completing 85 percent of his passes to Edelman, compared to just 51 percent to all other receivers, and Edelman has twice as many receptions as any other Patriot this season.
Chiefs offensive line - Alex Smith has been sacked 11 times and has been under pressure on 45 of his 124 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. Only Chad Henne has been sacked more times this season, and only Jake Locker has been under pressure on more dropbacks. It could be a long night in Kansas City if the Chiefs can't keep Smith upright against the Patriots.
Tom Brady - The Patriots are 2-1 this season thanks mostly to their fourth-ranked defense, and many are wondering whether Father Time has finally caught up to the 37-year-old. While Peyton Manning is thriving as he approaches age 40, Brady appears to be regressing. This primetime game is a chance for Brady to prove that he is still an elite quarterback and capable of leading the Patriots deep into the playoffs.
How to watch
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
When: 8:25 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Announcers: Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden
Online Streaming: Verizon NFL Mobile, WatchESPN
The venue
Arrowhead Stadium has a reputation as one of the most intimidating environments to play in the NFL, and you can bet that its fans will be especially rowdy with ESPN and the Monday Night Football crew in the house. The fans are among the loudest in all of professional sports, taking no mercy on the Chiefs' opponents at Arrowhead, where the most popular chant is "we're going to beat the hell out of you, you, you."
Despite the apparent home-field advantage, the Chiefs have struggled at home since the second half of last season, losing their last four games at Arrowhead. The Patriots haven’t had much success on the road recently, either, going 3-5 in their last eight games away from Gillette Stadium.
Odds
The Patriots are favored by 3 points over the host Chiefs with the over/under at 44.5, according to OddsShark. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites, but don't put all your money on the Chiefs, who are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
Preliminary judgment
Most experts are picking the Patriots to win on the road, but I like the underdog in this game. Arrowhead is going to be loud and the fans will make it difficult for Brady and the Patriots to execute their offense. If the Chiefs can get an early lead and control the ball with a dominant rushing game, it will become difficult for the Patriots to score enough points to win the game.
Further reading
For more on the Patriots, please check out Pats Pulpit.
To read up on the Chiefs, head over to Arrowhead Pride.
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