Here’s my overall strategy when it comes to betting: Imagine the person that you would hate to watch football with the most out of anyone in the world. Imagine how they would bet these games. And do the opposite.
Don’t be an idiot: NFL week 1 picks against the spread
One trick to sports betting is to not be stupid.
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
I call it my “don’t be an idiot” betting guide and I am about .500 with it. Since going exactly 50-50 with gambling will not win you any money the trick is to take my advice on every single bet and then dump me immediately after I hit a hot streak. (NOTE: This is terrible advice but it’s fun.)
Week 1 picks (home team is in caps):
SEATTLE (-5.5) over Green Bay
PHILADELPHIA (-10) over Jacksonville
DENVER (-7.5) over Indianapolis
"That's almost a full point more than a touchdown! That's too much points to give up to Andrew Luck," some dummy might say.
Peyton Manning had his best statistical season ever in 2013 plus the Broncos got a LOT better on defense. Altitude is the real 12th man and it is most definitely a factor early on in the season when teams aren't in their best shape.
Cleveland (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
Your friend loves Pittsburgh because your friend was drunk between 2004 and 2011. Cleveland is bad also. No one wants to bet on them so I am going to.
Buffalo (+6.5) over CHICAGO
NEW YORK JETS (-5) over Oakland
San Francisco (-5) over DALLAS
MIAMI (+4.5) over New England
They actually might be as bad as you think they are. Whatever. I stand by my pick.
Minnesota (+4) over ST. LOUIS
Tennessee (+4) over KANSAS CITY
Your buddy thinks the Titans are bad because they were bad last year and the year before that and also that one year before that and a lot of other years, too. The Titans might also be the only team in the league to not have a single player ranked in the Top 25 of QBs, WRs, and RBs in ESPN's fantasy football. That's why your buddy would bet on the Chiefs.
This spread was at least two-and-a half points lower than I thought it should have been considering it’s at Arrowhead. Due to the fact that this line makes absolutely no sense and it is stupid to bet on the Titans I had to go with them.
New Orleans (-3) over ATLANTA
Washington (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Noted SB Nation sportblogs blogger Jon Bois wrote a really good account of how Donovan McNabb was a lightning rod for the most idiotic sports takes. That mantle has been passed through Mike Shanahan's fiery leatherhands to Robert Griffin III. If Griffin runs too much he needs to work on being a pocket passer. If he stays in the pocket too much he needs to use his athleticism.
This feels like a Redskins win straight up. Watt and Clowney will be fun to watch, but they don't play on offense. Arian Foster and Andre Johnson haven't been themselves for years, and they're being led by Ryan Fitzpatrick who can best be described as a "slightly more competent Sage Rosenfels."
By the way, your buddy LOVES Kirk Cousins.
Cincinnati (+2) over BALTIMORE
Carolina (-1) over TAMPA BAY
DETROIT (-5.5) over New York Giants
The Giants might be terrible this year but your friend played on the Giants in Pop Warner. He also thinks the Lions are as bad as they were in 2008. They have a crazy talented offense and a pretty bad defense that should only be able to manage two or three interceptions against Eli.
ARIZONA (-3) over San Diego
I do not like this game. I would not bet on it normally. The Chargers can be really really good or really really bad, and it varies by the quarter. Some folks have no idea how the Cardinals won 10 games in the NFC West last year. *Well actually* they're really good defensively, so I'm going with the Cards.
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