Two months ago, no one could have predicted that the two-time defending NFC champions would enter their Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup against the San Francisco 49ers in a must-win scenario. Still, here we are in mid-October and the Seattle Seahawks are two games under .500, teetering on the brink of having their season spiral completely out of control.
Seahawks vs. 49ers 2015, ‘Thursday Night Football’ preview: Must-win rivalry game for Seattle
At 2-4 and sitting in last place in the NFC West, the two-time defending NFC champions are on the verge of seeing their season turn into a disaster if they can’t right the ship.
The Seahawks are in an unfamiliar position, sharing the NFC West’s cellar with the 49ers. If they can’t right the ship soon, they could easily miss the playoffs for the first time since 2011. You don’t have to squint too hard to figure out the root of their problems: They’ve played well enough to hold a lead in the fourth quarter of every game, but have been badly out-executed in the final frame, resulting in four horrible losses and a disappointing 2-4 record.
Finishing has been the biggest issue for this Seattle team over the first six weeks of the season. That’s a very troubling trend considering that closing out games is one of the core tenets of Pete Carroll’s coaching philosophy. Right now, however, no team has done a worse job of that this year than the Seahawks, who have blown a league-high four fourth-quarter leads.
It's hard to believe based on the consensus preseason predictions, but the Niners are the team with the most positive momentum heading into this stunning matchup of last-place teams. San Francisco snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, giving them a much-needed confidence boost entering Thursday night. Granted, it came against a disappointing 1-5 Ravens club; but a win is a win and, at the very least, it is a step in the right direction.
Sustaining that momentum against a desperate -- and probably more talented -- Seahawks team won’t be easy for San Francisco. Seattle not only has the matchup advantage on paper, but it also has a couple historical trends in its favor. The Seahawks have won five of the last six meetings in dominant fashion, with four of the five wins coming by double digits. They also are 14-2 in regular season primetime games since 2010, the NFL’s best record over the past six seasons.
Digits
After losing four of their first six games, the Seahawks face long odds in trying to reach the playoffs. Since 1990, only 14 teams have rebounded from a 2-4 start to qualify for the postseason, and that number is skewed toward the 1990s and early-2000s. The lone clubs in the past decade to do it are the 2008 Dolphins and 2011 Broncos. If somehow the Seahawks were to drop another game on Thursday ... well, fuggedaboutit. Just four teams in the last 25 years have lost five of their first seven games and still made the playoffs.
For the Seahawks to pull off this rare feat, it is clear they need to fix their fourth-quarter issues. They have been outscored by 28 points in the final 15 minutes, the second-worst differential in the league. There’s no single culprit to blame for these epic meltdowns, either, as Seattle has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball.
The offense has scored just 27 fourth-quarter points, the second-fewest among teams that have played six games, and the defense has surrendered 55 fourth-quarter points, the fourth-most in the league. The numbers put up by opposing quarterbacks against the vaunted Seahawks secondary in the fourth quarter this season are staggering: 48 of 57 (84.2 percent) passing for 580 yards, with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
One of the biggest keys to the 49ers win on Sunday was the terrific performance under center by quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns to no interceptions. He's now had two very solid passing games in a row and sparked a 49ers offense that was on life support during the first month of the season. Kaepernick has averaged 9.7 yards yards per attempt with four scores and zero picks in his last two outings -- a huge improvement over his numbers from his first four games (6.3 yards per attempts, one TD, five interceptions).
Kapernick’s revitalization over the past two weeks is a really encouraging sign for the 49ers. The question remains, however, if he can continue to make progress on Thursday night against a Seahawks team that has been his kryptonite throughout his career. He is 1-5 against Seattle and has completed just 53 percent of his passes while averaging a meager 5.8 yards per attempt. In those six starts, he’s thrown three touchdowns with nine interceptions, and has been sacked a whopping 18 times.
Who to Watch
Jimmy Graham - Seattle finally figured out how to get Graham involved in the passing game last Sunday against Carolina, and the tight end responded with his best day in a Seahawks uniform. He finished with eight catches on 12 targets for 140 yards and a score, nearly doubling his yardage total from the first five games combined.
After mostly being an underneath option for Russell Wilson in previous weeks, he was spectacular as vertical threat in the passing game on Sunday, averaging 17.5 yards per reception. His athleticism makes him a nightmare to defend against, and he is clearly a matchup that the Seahawks should exploit numerous times in this game.
NaVorro Bowman - Whatever concerns the 49ers might have had about Bowman returning to full speed this season with his surgically-repaired knee have probably been put to rest after the first six weeks. He has been on the field for nearly every snap this season, and it’s obvious that the Niners cannot afford to have him on the sidelines if they are going to be competitive on defense.
Although his pass coverage has been poor this season -- he ranks 148th out 153 inside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus’ grades -- he is still a tackling machine with a league-best 59 tackles.
How to watch
When: 8:25 p.m. ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
TV: CBS | NFLN
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
Online: NFL Game Pass
Preliminary Judgment
Seattle is a lock to get back on track and beat the 49ers, according to the so-called experts. All the guys over at CBS Sports and here at SB Nation headquarters have the Seahawks winning on Sunday in San Francisco.
Odds
Seahawks are 6.5-point favorites and the over/under is 42, according to OddsShark.com.
Further Reading
For more the Seahawks, check out Field Gulls. To catch up on everything 49ers, head over to Niners Nation.
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