After six games, the offensive MVP for the Denver Broncos is Brandon McManus, their kicker. This fact tells you a lot about how the Broncos' offense has struggled heading into a showdown of unbeatens Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers.
Peyton Manning isn’t the only reason the Broncos offense is struggling
Manning deserves his share of the blame, but there’s more than enough to go around.
McManus is 16 for 17 on field goals, while the Broncos have scored only nine offensive touchdowns. Cornerback Aqib Talib's two touchdowns are one more than that of star wideout Demaryius Thomas.
Most of the blame has gone to quarterback Peyton Manning, who is 39 (which translates to 89 in football years) and playing in the twilight of his career. His stats are grim for a future Hall of Famer -- seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions, three of them pick-sixes. In the NFL quarterback ratings after six games, he ranked below the likes of Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston.
Denver’s struggles inside the red zone most clearly demonstrate their failures compared to the past three seasons with Manning. In 2012, the Broncos scored touchdowns on 61 percent of their drives inside the 20 (ranking sixth). In 2013, they were No. 1 with a 72 percent rate and fourth last season with 63 percent. In 2015, they rank 29th, scoring touchdowns on only 37 percent of their drives inside the 20, and an embarrassing 11 percent in the last three games.
While Manning's skills are deteriorating and he deserves his share criticism for the Broncos' struggles on offense, he is just one cog that is not working correctly in the larger machine. To be fair, he's had some flashes of brilliance (his 75-yard strike to Emmanuel Sanders against Cleveland, for one) and some huge drops in key situations, especially by Demaryius Thomas. It's not all been Manning's fault, and if the Broncos finished off more drives with touchdowns rather than field goals, there would be less reason for Denver fans to worry. The team enters its last 10 regular season games with a brutal schedule that sees them play four teams (Packers, Patriots, Bengals and Steelers) with a combined 22-3 record, plus four always-tough division games and two non-gimmes at the Colts and Bears.
Here are the five key reasons the Broncos offense resembles a 5-year-old’s finger painting rather than the work of art we’ve seen the past three years:
Mismatched offensive philosophies. Manning is creature of habit and hates change. He has played in basically the same offensive system through 16 seasons and four head coaches. He loves operating out of the shotgun and running a no-huddle offense. This year he has a new coach, Gary Kubiak, with a new philosophy and Manning is struggling to get comfortable. Kubiak wants his quarterback under center, Manning wants to be in the shotgun. Kubiak wants to run more, Manning is pass first. So they compromise and use a pistol formation. And like all compromises, it leaves both parties less than satisfied.
“It has by no means been easy, but Coach Kubiak and I continue to talk, and we are committed to trying to get on the same page and get where he and I have a good feel for each other,” Manning said last week after surviving the Browns. “We are both committed to the cause. ... Obviously, we are still going through a transition. We are trying to get on the same page and get comfortable.”
The play calling shows the dysfunction. Against Cleveland, the Broncos were running the ball well for once (152 yards). Yet they threw on four consecutive third-and-2 plays. The results were ugly -- incomplete, incomplete, incomplete, interception. So much for Kubiak’s commitment to running the ball. The play calling was baffling. Likewise, Manning’s best drive of the season was the 10-play, 80-yard no-huddle gem that tied the game at Kansas City in Week 2. It makes no sense why the Broncos can’t go to this type of offense as a change of pace during games since Manning can run it in his sleep. It used to be impossible to use my DVR’s 30-second skip while Manning was on offense, since I would miss two plays. Now, in that same time, he’s not yet even snapped the ball.
Lack of a third receiver: Thomas and Sanders have been terrific as wideouts, each with 527 receiving yards, well on pace for more than 1,000 for the season. Between them, they have 86 catches. The other eight players who have caught passes this season have a combined 55 catches. The wide receiver with the most catches after those two is Bennie Fowler with seven.
Manning has always thrived with a great third receiver, often in the slot, the likes of Brandon Stokley and Wes Welker or Dallas Clark (as much a receiver as a tight end). The Broncos have no dependable go-to third option this year. Second-year man Cody Latimer was drafted to be that guy and the team (and many preseason fantasy experts) had high hopes for him, but he is clueless on game day. His stat line this season: Zero catches. I could do that.
No tight end threat: The Broncos really miss Julius Thomas and his 24 touchdowns in two seasons. He was almost uncoverable in the red zone and opened the rest of the field for Manning to find other receivers. But the Broncos let Thomas walk to a big payday in Jacksonville and have found no one close to replacing his production. Owen Daniels is a plodder, on the downside of his career, and while fans rave about Virgil Green's athleticism, he doesn't show it during games.
The Broncos drafted Jeff Heuerman out of Ohio State and had high hopes that he would help replace Thomas, but he tore a knee in rookie minicamp and was lost for the season.
Ineffective running game: The Broncos can't run when they need to. They rank 30th in total yards rushing and 27th in yards per attempt. C.J. Anderson, a breakout star last season, is averaging a pitiful 2.7 yards per attempt. And yet he still splits the running duties with Ronnie Hillman, despite Hillman averaging 4.9 yards per rush. Anderson has been nagged by injuries, which helps explain a lot, but Hillman needs to be the featured back until Anderson is 100 percent.
One sequence shows how undependable the run game has become. Against the Raiders, the Broncos had first-and-goal from Oakland's 4-yard line. Anderson rushed on first down for 1 yard. Anderson rushed on second down for 1 yard. A third-down pass is dropped by Thomas in the end zone, and McManus is called on for yet another field goal. The running game is the cornerstone of a Kubiak offense and if that is not working, the whole thing just stalls.
Shaky offensive line: Losing starting left tackle Ryan Clady to a season-ending injury was a killer and the line has struggled with consistency all season. The line was a sieve in the first two games, with Manning sacked seven times. It has stabilized since, giving up five sacks total in the last four games.
The line has not opened a whole lot of holes. The rushing yards stat line in six games is grim for a Kubiak offense: 69, 61, 41, 43, 144, 43 and 152. The unit has been beset by injuries and is still a work in progress, but that’s not encouraging with the weather turning colder and the schedule heating up.
Add it all up -- aging QB, new coach and offense, no third receiver, no tight end threat, ineffective run game and shaky offensive line -- and it’s amazing the Broncos are 6-0. That’s all thanks to the best defense in the league, which is just as much a threat to score as the Broncos’ offense. But the defense, like any, will have an off day and the question will then become whether the offense can finally carry its share of the load. If not, another one-and-done playoff appearance looks likely.
Jim Buzinski is co-founder of Outsports.com. He was sports editor of the Long Beach Press-Telegram back when Los Angeles actually had a pro football team.
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