This week's Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos won't feature another chapter in the storied Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry, but there is no shortage of juicy storylines in this showdown between two of the AFC's best teams.
Patriots vs. Broncos 2015, ‘Sunday Night Football’ preview: New England’s path to perfection goes through Denver
Forget Brady-Manning XVII, it’s time for Brady-Brock I.
The Patriots remained unbeaten with a win on Monday night against the Buffalo Bills, but they've hardly looked like a perfect team recently. Their last two contests have been decided by a combined eight points, a far cry from their robust per-game margin of 16.6 points in their first eight wins of the season. New England showed its vulnerable side for the second week in a row, but gutted out another victory thanks to a strong defensive effort and some key plays on special teams.
Despite the ugly performance, the Patriots extended their win streak to 13 games dating back to last year's postseason and have positioned themselves to clinch a division title on Sunday night. A win over the Broncos, coupled with a New York Jets loss in Miami, would give New England its seventh straight AFC East crown. That would tie them with the 1973-79 Los Angeles Rams for the longest streak in NFL history The Patriots could even have the division wrapped up before this game kicks off, if both the Jets and Bills lose their afternoon games.
Standing in their path are the Fighting Osweilers, who snapped a two-game skid with a win over the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Thanks to an efficient and mistake-free performance from the Broncos' 25-year-old backup (on his birthday!), Denver extended its lead in the AFC West to three games and set itself up to challenge for a top-two playoff seed. The Broncos are a near-lock to win the division (92.7 percent odds), but Football Outsiders' projections are less optimistic on their chances for homefield advantage (33.7).
Osweiler was impressive in his debut, but his second start couldn't be more daunting. All he has to do is knock off an unbeaten Patriots team in front of a national television audience, while trying to outsmart a coach that feasts on young, untested quarterbacks. Bill Belichick's amoeba-like defensive scheming is a challenge for even the league's elite signal callers, let alone one with fewer than 100 career pass attempts. According to ESPN Stats & Info research, quarterbacks making their first or second career start against Belichick and the Patriots are 1-8 (the lone winner was Mark Sanchez in 2009).
Digits
The Patriots are more than halfway to matching their 2007 accomplishment as the only teams in NFL history to complete a 16-0 regular season, but finishing off the task won’t be easy. The biggest concern is a sluggish offense that has been decimated by injuries. They are still piling up yards -- 414.6 through Week 8 and 407.7 since then -- but their scoring average has dropped from 35.6 points per game in their first seven wins to 24.7 in their last three. More often than not in the past few weeks, they’ve been settling for field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone.
This is a bad time for the Patriots and Brady to be misfiring on offense, facing a Denver defense that has smothered its opponents. The Broncos own the NFL’s top-ranked total defense and second-ranked scoring defense, and no team has been better at shutting down a team’s aerial attack than Denver. They’re allowing the second-lowest opponent passer rating, the fewest passing yards per game, the fewest pass yards per play and have a league-high 18 interceptions this season.
The Broncos’ championship-caliber defense can only carry the team so far, though. If they are going to be a threat in the postseason, they need to have a balanced offense that takes care of the ball and does just enough to win games. Although it’s a tiny sample size of one game, Osweiler demonstrated that type of efficient game-management ability in leading Denver to a win in Chicago.
Osweiler played smart, mistake-free football against the Bears, completing 20 of 27 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns. Osweiler didn’t throw a pick in 12 drives on Sunday, while Manning was intercepted in every game he played this season. Manning’s highest passer rating in a game was 101.7, yet Osweiler bested that in his first start (127.1). Most significantly, Osweiler looked comfortable running Gary Kubiak’s preferred offense from under center. More than 70 percent of their plays were under center on Sunday; with Manning at helm for the majority of their first nine games, that numbers was just 21 percent.
Who to Watch
Brady is losing offensive weapons by the minute. Still, the injury bug hasn't claimed Rob Gronkowski yet and he is perhaps the key cog now in New England's passing attack. Gronk has been unstoppable at times this season, but has also disappeared in a few games and is coming off his worst performance of 2015: two catches, 37 yards and no touchdowns against the Bills. With few other playmakers healthy, Gronkowski has to produce against the Broncos if the Pats are going to have any shot of remaining unbeaten.
One of the other key byproducts of keeping Osweiler under center for the majority of the game was that it opened up running opportunities for Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson. The duo combined for 161 yards on 33 carries against the Bears, more than 70 yards better than their combined season average entering the game. If they can have the same success against a Patriots run defense that is second in yards allowed and 11th in yards per rush, the Broncos have a chance to ruin New England's perfect record.
How to Watch
When: 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: NBC
Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Online: NBC Sports Live Extra
Odds
The Patriots are 3-point favorites on the road and the over/under is 44.5, according to OddsShark.com.
Preliminary Judgement
There is little agreement among the experts on whether Denver can hand New England its first loss. While CBS Sports gives a slight advantage to the Broncos, our SB Nation crew is heavily favoring the Patriots. Only Stephen White and the OddsShark computer are picking the Broncos to pull off the upset at home. ESPN’s panel is nearly split down the middle, with seven taking the Pats and six taking the Broncos.
Further Reading
For everything Patriots, check out Pats Pulpit. To read about the Broncos, stop by Mile High Report.
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