Danny Kelly: After 13 weeks, I think for the most part we know what teams have a shot at winning the whole thing and what teams are going to be one-and-done in the postseason if they manage to squeak in.
The Patriots are about to find out if scheme trumps talent
Danny Kelly and Stephen White discuss the state of the Patriots and what it will take to prevent their first three-game losing streak since 2002.
Right now, I think there are five elite teams in the NFL, and then there’s everyone else. The Seahawks, Chiefs, Packers and Steelers have a really good shot at playing spoiler once the playoffs get going, but the class of the NFL still looks like the Panthers, Cardinals, Bengals, Broncos, and Patriots, in some order.
I say “some order” because I think you could make arguments for any of those five being the best of the bunch. If you would’ve asked me a few weeks ago, it would have definitely have been the Patriots in my eyes, but after losing Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and Nate Solder this year, their offense has struggled a little bit to get to where they were. They’ve lost two in a row and face the reality of losing their third straight game for the first time since 2002 (which is totally ridiculous, by the way).
Do you see the Patriots having any trouble with the Texans this week? Until getting beaten by the Bills last weekend I would’ve thought that the Houston defense was the best in the NFL and they still may be, but their month-long run of complete dominance ended and they look human again. Do you think the Texans have a shot?
Stephen White: First, I do want to point out that the Chiefs are 5-0 over their last five games and the only other teams that can say the same are the Panthers and Cardinals, so considering how their season has gone I might actually put him in that top tier, as well, because it at least it appears that they are peaking at the right time. I think a lot hinges on how soon they get Justin Houston back, but Eric Berry, coming back from beating cancer (!), is playing out of his friggin’ mind right now, so I’m not really sure anybody wants to see them early on in the playoffs.
If Gronk doesn’t play this weekend, I think there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the Patriots’ chances of beating the Texans on Sunday.
Some of the things I think will work against the Patriots if Gronk doesn’t play:
- For one you have Bill O’Brien’s familiarity not only with the offense, but I’m sure he got to know how Bill Belichick likes to attack on defense, as well, in his time in New England.
- The Patriots offensive line has been shaky and in flux almost all of this season and J.J. Watt is coming to town. Don’t look now, but Jadeveon Clowney has had a couple of decent games the last few weeks, as well. If you want to slow down that Patriots offense, you have to hit Tom Brady. The Texans are equipped to do that.
- I know they lost last week to the Bills, but even in the loss the Texans continued to show some new diversity on offense, including some dreaded Wildcat plays. It’s not like the Texans have a ton of talent on offense, so it is imperative that they stay unpredictable and be able to hit some big plays.
- And there’s also that Nuk Hopkins guy at wide receiver that nobody has really been able to stop this year. (I had him as a breakout player, btw ... nbd. *Nailed it!!!*)
I still picked the Patriots to win because they do still have some talent on offense, including tight end Scott Chandler who I expect to have a big day if Gronk is still out. Their defense also continues to be vastly underrated. I think Belichick is going to try to scheme up a way that forces the Texans to beat him without Hopkins being involved and I just don’t see how they get that done.
I would pick Chandler Jones to have another big day rushing the passer, and I expect him to be a huge factor in the Texans have a hard time getting on track on offense.
Danny is there a player that you think is due to have a big game on either team?
Danny: With Watt playing out of his mind and Clowney playing well of late, too, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Patriots focus on scheming up against those two guys, leaving Whitney Mercilus and John Simon as the other two pass rushers to keep an eye on, especially in the nickel and dime subpackages. Mercilus has seven sacks this year, but has been a little quiet over the last three games. Bill Belichick opened his Friday presser talking about Mercilus and how the Texans move him around in their base and dime packages, so you know he’s on New England’s radar, too.
And he should be. The Patriots have really struggled protecting Tom Brady of late and he’s far too frequently finding himself getting knocked on his ass, which is pretty amazing considering his ability to get the ball out quickly and decisively. In last week’s loss to the Eagles, Philly sacked Brady four times and hit him an astounding 12 times -- and it’s not just a one-game outlier.
Per an NFL Total Access graphic I saw this week, Tom Brady has been knocked down 30 times during Weeks 11-13, which is the third-most times any quarterback in the NFL has been knocked down in a three-game span this year (the other two being Josh McCown from Weeks 3-5 (32 times) and Ryan Tannehill from Weeks 2-4 (31 times). Five out of six of those games for the Browns and Dolphins were losses, and not surprisingly, two out of three of those games for the Patriots have been losses. You can’t open your quarterback up to that many hits and hope to win. That’s obviously a huge factor this week with the Houston front being so strong of late.
One other player that should have a big impact this year -- and this is obvious but it’s related to the issues with pass pro -- should be Danny Amendola. With Gronk likely out and Julian Edelman still out, Brady will likely look to lean on the quick game, and that’s Amendola from the slot.
James White might be a big factor this week, as well, catching passes out of the backfield. Last week, White caught 10 passes for 115 yards and a score, and he should feature again this week.
Stephen: I agree on James White. It’s kind of crazy how the Patriots were able to maximize running back Dion Lewis’ ability earlier this season and feature him in their offense until he got hurt and now the same thing is kinda happening with White. Maybe that system really is just better than everybody else’s.
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